The Netherlands: pre-race 2024

Well, my early bet on Hamilton isn’t looking too clever right about now.

In Q1 Sargeant never got going, the car was too damaged to be repaired in time. Unsurprisingly, the two Saubers were slowest, with Magnussen and Ocon also failing to progress.

Q2 was interesting. Earlier in the session, Russell had seen his car all twitchy (perhaps due to wind) and Hamilton got it here but, unluckily for the elder Briton, it happened when he needed a fast lap. He wasn’t the only one unable to get through to Q3, as Sainz was also out at this stage. Tsunoda, Hulkenberg, and Magnussen were rather more predictable departures here.

But Hamilton and Sainz’s pain was Aston Martin and Albon’s gain, as all three made it through to the final session. At the sharp end, Norris had a devastating pace, claiming pole by four-tenths over Verstappen. Piastri was a tenth off the Dutchman, and a tenth ahead of Russell, showing Hamilton could’ve been about 10 places higher. (NB Perez was bitching on the radio about Hamilton impeding him. To my eye, it was nothing, but if the stewards disagree that’ll likely put Hamilton back in 15th).

The third row is Perez and Leclerc, but I do wonder if we’ll see the Mexican drifting backward. Hard to pass here, which may help him. Alonso and Albon form the fourth row, and it’s worth mentioning this was practically the only time all qualifying the Spaniard outdid his Canadian team mate. Stroll and Gasly complete the top 10.

 

To my surprise, Hamilton did indeed get a 3 place grid penalty for impeding Perez. Where the Briton was meant to go, I do not know, but his selfish lack of an on-board TARDIS has put him even further back. In addition, Albon’s car was deemed to have an illegal floor and his qualifying session doings were disqualified. He still starts the race but from the back of the grid. On the positive side, good news for Sargeant who has finally outqualified his team mate.

The race should be dry.

 

Early Betting Thoughts:

Verstappen/Piastri to lead lap 1

Hamilton top 6

It’s been a little break since the last race but perhaps Norris will, once again, leave his handbrake on. If so, Verstappen or Piastri are likely to grab the lead. Verstappen is 3 on Betfair and The Driver from Third is 13 on Ladbrokes. I don’t mind the Piastri odds but 3 should be too short… hopefully Norris has sorted his starts.

My Hamilton top 6 bet was thought of before I knew about his penalty. The odds are 1.83, from 15th. It’s not impossible but the circuit’s one where passing is hard and starting that low down there’s plenty of scope to end up in someone else’s accident, so no bet.

 

I then made an Awareness check to see if I could spot any value browsing the markets:

Alonso, win group 2, 5

Piastri, win each way, 7

 

Alonso is the lead car of group 2, which includes his team mate (promoted to be right alongside him), Sainz, promoted to 10th, and Hamilton, down in 15th. In qualifying, Alonso was half a tenth slower than Leclerc, right ahead of him, and two-tenths ahead of Stroll. If he retains his advantage off the line he may drive away from his team mate and I don’t think the Ferrari’s in great shape. Hamilton should have more pace, but he starts back in 15th. For those wondering, Hamilton is favourite, at 1.8, for this group. But I’d sooner back him at 1.61 to beat Sainz as an alternative match bet. I think the Alonso group bet is worth considering.

Not unlike the Perez each way bet last year (for a while) when the Red Bull was dominant, he may have a shot at making the top 2. His final qualifying run was below par, and he should’ve been closer. That said, he was a tenth and a half off Verstappen and half a second off his team mate. There’s plenty more speed in there, and if he gets a good start then the young Aussie could easily advance. He’s 7, each way, to win. This is, unusually, longer than the Betfair odds of 6.6.

 

Hamilton had a good recovery drive here a year or two ago which does put me off the Alonso bet a bit, as does the risk of Stroll getting ahead (and the Canadian’s looked pretty handy around the circuit). So I’ve backed Piastri, each way, boosted to 7.5. Decent shot of this coming off.

Start time is 2pm.

 

Morris Dancer

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

F1 2014 - Second and Third Tests

Image
Bit of a whopper of an article, but it didn’t make sense to write two for the Bahrain tests, as they were so close together. Many of the rule changes are helpfully outlined here: http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/22058/9077826/gearing-up-for-2014-the-rule-changes-uncovered-and-explained-part-one This is one more reason why reliability is to critical. Losing a whole power unit (exceeding the 5 per season limit) means starting the next race from the pit lane. Losing a component, such as the turbo, means a 10 place grid penalty. On day one of the first test in Bahrain it appeared the Renault/Red Bull woe might continue. However, both Red Bull and Toro Rosso got in good running on the second day. Any remaining issues seem more to do with the car rather than the power unit. It’s been suggested the Renault requires significantly more cooling than rival engines, but apparently there are upsides. If the horsepower rumours were true (Mercedes being mighty and Ferrari better
Read more

Great Britain: post-race analysis

Image
Well, that was a dramatic race. Even better, it was profitable. When Hamilton’s tyre exploded it looked set to be yet another Vettel victory, but then the German’s car lost drive, gifting Rosberg the lead. He did well to retain it at the end against a strong attack from Webber. It’s also nice to benefit from some good luck when it comes to bets. The start saw Vettel instantly pass Rosberg into second (maybe because the odd-numbered side of the track is a significant advantage). Webber meanwhile had a terrible start, even by his standards, and Massa gained a huge number of places. To make matters worse, Grosjean nudged Webber off the track and damaged his front wing (replaced at the first round of pit stops). A big question was whether or not Mercedes would be able to maintain decent race pace, as this has proved their weakness so far this season. Hamilton seemed to have no real issues keeping Vettel behind him, until the Briton’s tyre burst apart. It did so at the worst
Read more

Abu Dhabi: early discussion

Image
Well, Vettel and Red Bull remain the champions. 2014 has the prospect of a change, but we’ll see. In the meantime, there are three races to finish off the season. Abu Dhabi’s a fairly narrow circuit with barriers close to the track (and pit lane exit), so a safety car is probable. The performance of the cars is largely locked in now, as any development on non-2014 relevant areas will have practically stopped. Ferrari, Mercedes and Lotus are all fighting for 2nd in the Constructors’, but whilst this matters getting next year right is more important. I expect Mercedes to be a little better in Abu Dhabi. They did well in Monaco and had a reasonably result (4th and 5th) in Singapore, which are fairly similar to the Yas Marina circuit. Turning to the driver market, the prevailing rumours I’ve heard are: Massa to Williams (replacing Maldonado) Maldonado or Hulkenberg taking Raikkonen’s old seat Some argue that Hulkenberg should get Perez’s seat, but I think that
Read more