Japan: pre-race 2024

 

Qualifying was surprisingly tight at the sharp end, but we’ll see if things are closer in the race than has typically been the case so far this year.

Q1 saw drivers from five different teams all say goodbye to qualifying, with Zhou Guanyu slowest again, and Gasly, Magnussen, and Sargeant all unable to proceed. The shocker was Stroll, fastest of those eliminated, whose team mate Alonso was faster than everyone but Verstappen at the time of the Canadian’s failure. Stroll has had a mostly decent start to the season but this was not a good moment.

Q2 Ocon was delighted to reach the middle session but ended up the slowest chap in it. Hulkenberg, Bottas, and Albon all left at this stage, as Ricciardo (though he was just barely beaten by Tsunoda). The Japanese driver is having a splendid start to the season.

Q3 saw Verstappen nab pole again, but Perez was less than a tenth behind to lock out the front row for Red Bull. Very good driving all session long from the Mexican. The second row is Carlando, with Norris ahead of his BFF Sainz. Another Spaniard and McLaren are on row three, this time Alonso and Piastri, who might be disappointed he wasn’t closer to his team mate.

The fourth row is Hamilton and Leclerc. The Monegasque looked off the pace all through qualifying compared to Sainz and was at a loss to explain his lack of speed. Rounding out the top 10 we have Russell and Tsunoda.

Russell may have gone over the line during his final lap, and will face investigation for barging into a queue (unsafely) when exiting the pits early on. Verdict: just a fine for the pit lane incident, which is surprisingly mild.

 

Early Betting Thoughts

Norris/Sainz/Perez, win each way

Piastri, top 6

There are valid reasons to back each of the three chaps indicated for winner each way. There’s the off-chance of Verstappen’s engine going wonky again, and the more realistic prospect that one of them will be second place. Perez drove very well through qualifying and was within a tenth of Verstappen at the end, and two-tenths and four-tenths ahead of Norris and Sainz respectively. Norris was best of the non-Red Bull drivers and if a safety car appears due to weather or crashing then will be first in line for a swift pit stop, whereas Perez may be delayed as Verstappen will be prioritised. Sainz has been driving very well indeed, though I was a little surprised he wasn’t closer to the ultimate pace. The odds are Perez 7, Norris 15, Sainz 21. Norris is tempting at those odds.

Piastri definitely has the pace to be top 6, but the 1.5 available is too short to tempt.

 

Other Potential Bets

Norris, podium, 1.83

Norris starts in third place and was two-tenths up on Sainz. If he gets a decent start, on a circuit where passing is difficult, he’s got a great shot at a podium finish. But 1.83 could be better.

 

Found this extremely hard to try and call, not least because I want to avoid making endless Perez each way bets (though that often makes sense).

Red Bull did show some reliability weakness last time out. So, in a move hoping for similar this time, or bad weather, I’ve backed Norris and Sainz, both each way, splitting a single stake between all of that (boosted odds are 16 for each driver). 

 

Morris Dancer