Singapore: pre-race 2023
Well, that was quite the qualifying session. And a fantastically unpredictable one at that. My only complaint is against myself for not backing the previous post’s potential bet on the Ferraris.
Q1 had a sting in its tail on a rapidly improving track, in which Stroll introduced his car to the barriers and prevented others (notably Piastri, who had the pace to get through) from escaping. The Aussie and Canuck were joined by both Alfa Romeos, and Logan Sargeant.
And that was followed by an even bigger surprise, and one due to pace rather than a crash, in Q2. The Red Bull had looked a handful all session, and neither Verstappen nor Perez were able to make it out, qualifying 11th and 13th (NB Verstappen is one of various drivers under investigation and he may well end up with a grid penalty for impeding Tsunoda in this session). Gasly, Albon, and Tsunoda were also unable to get any further. Given the absolute dominance of Red Bull this year, this is astonishing.
But not the first time this has happened. During Mercedes’ reign they swept all before them but, one year, also were inexplicably slow around Singapore. An odd coincidence.
And so to Q3 with Ferrari looking odds on for pole but Norris and Alonso also in the fight. In the end it was Sainz who got pole, and for a while it seemed like a Ferrari front row until Russel joined the Spaniard on the front row and relegated Leclerc to 3rd, alongside Norris.
Third row is Magnussen and Hamilton, then we have Alonso and Ocon, with Hulkenberg and Lawson on row five (Lawson did very well just to make Q3, and, in so doing, knocked out Verstappen).
At the time of writing (about half six in the morning) rain is possible but unlikely, and there are no penalties. The latter is unexpected and maybe it’ll change in the meantime, but I expected one for Verstappen regarding the impeding of Tsunoda (whose team didn’t bother turning up to the hearing).
Early betting thoughts:
Russell, win
Norris, podium
My rationale for Russell winning is essentially that the Ferrari will chew its tyres more which may force their hand strategically. I am slightly uncertain about the new straight and whether that will aid overtaking. It won’t help the Mercedes as much, given the car’s weak in a straight line. Russell is 3.5 to win… which is never great nor awful.
Norris is consistently quick and, again, benefits from not having a Ferrari strategy. Norris is 2.4 for a podium. Bit short given how tight things are.
As is traditional, I then browsed the markets, although, disappointingly, the group markets weren’t up when I did so:
Verstappen/Perez not to be classified, 6 (each)
Leclerc, win each way 7
Lay Verstappen, podium 3
The Red Bull was squirming all over the place yesterday with lack of grip. On the first lap and any post-safety car restarts there’s a reasonable chance of a collision occurring, or the drivers just making a mistake. The straight may present may chances and dangers from overtaking which may increase the opportunities for smashing into a wall, and they tend to be close to the circuit. As such, betting on both drivers with a split stake at 6 (or the simpler 3.5 on 1 or 2 Red Bull drivers to not be classified, if you prefer) is worth considering.
Leclerc’s time was less than a tenth off his team mate, so starting 3rd is a little unfortunate. He’s very good at street circuits, and this is the first time he’s been outqualified in Singapore by a team mate. Still has a good shot of keeping pace with Russell and then leapfrogging come pit stops. My doubts here come from Ferrari strategy, and possibly rougher tyre treatment. However, the Ferrari is better in a straight line than the Mercedes so if he can get ahead then unless the tyres are fully kaput I’d expect him to stay there.
This is a weird bet in two ways: Verstappen has not finished lower than 2nd this year, and it’s shorter than evens, neither of which are normal operating procedure. But the car looked pretty poor in qualifying, and even laying at 3 is probably value for Verstappen to make the podium. I even looked at the 1.8 on him not making the top 6, but that may be achievable.
Not much to choose between the Red Bull not to be classified and Leclerc bet for me.
Decided to back Leclerc at 7.5 (with boost) each way to win. Modest churn does happen fairly often at the sharp end of Singapore.
Race start is 1pm UK time.
Morris Dancer
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