Everything but Serie A 23 Feb 2023

As always, bets are with Smarkets unless noted otherwise, and wager at your own risk.


EPL

Lay West Ham at home versus Nottingham Forest at 1.84. Forest are above them in the table and in the last half-dozen matches have lost just once. The away record is a bit iffy, with three draws and one win in 11 matches but the odds are still too long. West Ham, in 10 home matches to date, have drawn twice and lost five times, and have a single win in the last dozen matches.

I've laid Liverpool to win away at Crystal Palace at 1.79. Nine points separate them in the table, and both have poor recent records (two wins, three losses, a draw for Liverpool, four draws and two losses for Crystal Palace). While Palace are so-so at home they have managed to hold Manchester United and Newcastle to draws.


Ligue 1

No bet this time.


La Liga

I've laid Sevilla to win at home versus Osasuna at 1.97. Osasuna are five points higher in the table, and have a very strong away record (two wins and six draws so far). Sevilla's home record is patchy with four wins from 11 matches. Osasuna do have a poor recent record but that includes two away draws and their home loss was to Real Madrid.


Bundesliga

I've laid Bayern Munich versus Union Berlin at 1.37. Unexpectedly, the sides are equal on points, and local derbies (for the EPL, anyway) reduce home advantage. Union Berlin also has a stronger recent record, and Bayern have drawn at home four out of 10 times.


As an aside, I had a £1 free bet on Ladbrokes. Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund (who I think I backed pre-season) and Union Berlin are tied for points at the top of the Bundesliga, so I put my free bet on Union Berlin at 17.


Morris Dancer


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