Imola: pre-race 2021

No bet, but the qualifying was intriguing and had lots of tight contests and the final result is very intriguing.

In the first session Tsunoda, very assured driver but still a newcomer, introduced his car to the wall and ended up last. This brought out a red flag. Williams performed well, both cars escaping, whereas both Haas and Alfa Romeos were eliminated.

Weirdly, Alonso ended up slowest of those in Q2, outqualified handily by Ocon, who made the final session. Russell did well to put his Williams in 12^th, with Latifi 14^th. Sainz was the fastest chap eliminated, and the gap to Leclerc indicated the potential was there to progress, and Vettel was just 13^th. Incidentally, Verstappen and the Mercedes set their fast times on the medium tyres (reckoned very useful as the difficulty overtaking and the lengthy pitting time puts a premium on the possibility of a one stop strategy), the rest being on softs.

The final session began with Hamilton narrowly edging Verstappen for pole, with Bottas well down and Norris, Perez, and Leclerc ahead of the second Mercedes driver. Norris put in an amazing lap to go 2^nd, briefly, before his time was eliminated for exceeding track limits (something that happened a lot throughout qualifying but must’ve been galling). But there was still a sting in the tail, because Perez put his Red Bull into 2^nd, one place ahead of his team mate. The top three are covered by less than a tenth of a second.

A quarter of a second further back is Charles Leclerc, half a tenth ahead of Gasly, with Ricciardo and Norris close behind. Bear in mind Norris’ time is his slower one. So to be half a tenth behind Ricciardo and ahead of Bottas is pretty fantastic. The Finn, however, is nearly half a second off his team mate. That’s not great. Ocon was 9^th by a clear margin and Stroll didn’t set a lap time.

Very tight at the top and with a great midfield battle, this is looking interesting (although overtaking difficulty may make it more strategic than anything else).

Early thoughts:

Tsunoda points
Russell/Latifi points
Leclerc podium
Norris podium/top 6
Mazepin DNF
Safety car
Few finishers

Tsunoda is 2.3 for points. I rate the driver highly but starting dead last on a circuit where passing is hard does not make me want to back him at barely over evens to make up 10 places (even if 4-6 of those should be eminently possible).

The Williams start 12^th and 14^th, and while Russell is ahead, Latifi has also been looking good. He’s 3.75 for points, with Latifi 4.5. Worth considering, particularly Russell, as the race can have significant attrition and he’s only 2 places off points at the start. And he starts on whatever tyre he likes unlike the lower half of the top 10 who are locked into soft tyres.

Leclerc’s pace is impressive, though his car remains a class behind the top two. 4.5 for a podium is so-so.

Norris is 5 for a podium but, despite having the pace to be on the second row, he starts 7^th due to lap time deletion. The podium odds don’t appeal, and for top 6 he’s 1.61, which is far too short given the track’s potential for mischief.

I guessed early on in the weekend that Mazepin would be 1.4 or thereabouts to not be classified, but he’s actually 1.57. This is quite tempting.

The safety car appeared last year, and commentators last time out made an astute comment (no, really) that having different companies with different liveries providing the safety car this year might encourage them to appear more often for dramatic/corporate reasons. Weirdly, there’s no safety car market on Ladbrokes, but the odds on Betfair are just 1.34.

Under 15.5 finisher is only 1.57. I’d probably rather just bet on Mazepin.

Anyway, that covers what first popped into my head. In accordance with my customs and traditions I then perused the market to see if any value leapt out and did a little dance:

Bottas, win each way (third the odds top 2), 26

McLaren, double points finish, 1.5

Bottas starts 8^th. Which is bloody weird. He’s fast enough to at least start 4^th and has looked good all weekend, up until when it mattered. His car’s one of the best. Against this, Hamilton and Verstappen are likely to have an almighty battle, and Perez will be keen to show he’s worth having in the team. Red Bull reliability might be a little fragile, though. And Bottas was kind of left behind last time.

Not a fan of short odds generally but McLaren had both cars in the top 10, start 6^th and 7^th, and look pretty good for this. My concern is that they might fall prey to those who start around 11^th-13^th who get to pick what tyres they start on.

Overall, nothing amazing jumps out at me.

The bets I like most are Russell for points and Mazepin to not be classified.

I’ve decided to back both of those. Russell for points at 3.75, Mazepin to not be classified at 1.57.

The race starts at 2pm, UK time.

Morris Dancer