UK: pre-race 2020
A tale of
two grids, with Mercedes hosting a private duel and everyone else engaged in
rather more competitive racing. Aside from the front row, quite an intriguing
grid.
First
session of qualifying saw Latifi embark upon some hot rally action which didn’t
necessarily lead to fantastic time as he was last. Also departing were cars
with Ferrari engines (Alfa Romeos and Haas).
Gasly was
the fastest chap eliminated in Q2, which had a mid-session interval so the
stewards could sweep up some gravel deposited when Hamilton spun in the same
place Latifi did. Albon’s ropey form continues, with the twelfth fastest time,
and Hulkenberg did reasonably well to end up 13th on the grid, with
very little running prior to today. Kvyat was next but suffers a five place
grid penalty for a gearbox change and Russell was slowest of the Q2 drivers.
In Q3 the
Mercedes was a day and a half ahead of the competition, a second clear of the
competition. Verstappen starts 3rd, a tenth ahead of the
surprisingly fast Leclerc (Vettel was 10th and nearly a second
slower, suggesting a substantial mistake). Norris did very well to not only
beat his talented team mate but put his car ahead of the much fancied Racing
Point of Stroll (Sainz right behind the Canadian). Perhaps very slightly
disappointing for Renault to have Ricciardo 8th, just ahead of Ocon,
but nowhere near as much as Vettel’s aforementioned 10th.
Note that
as well as Kvyat’s 5 place penalty for changing a gearbox, Russell received one
for failing to slow down sufficiently under yellow flags.
Weather
looks warm and dry.
Looking at
the grid, thoughts that spring to mind were:
Leclerc
podium
Safety car
Vettel not
to be classified
Leclerc is
6 for a podium. He starts 4th, and whilst the Ferrari’s
disappointing pace has been much discussed, it’s worth remembering that from
two finishes one of them was on the podium. His pace in qualifying was just a
tenth off Verstappen, and the Red Bull appears a little less reliable. The
McLaren of Norris was three-tenths behind the Monegasque, so on raw pace
Leclerc is looking good. The odds are a bit surprising to be, to be honest.
A safety
car is just 1.33. Too short to tempt.
Vettel is
4.5 not to be classified. This may be value but is shorter than I would like.
Starting in the midfield will certainly increase his lap one risk.
While
browsing the market one thing did leap out:
Bottas, win
each way, 5
The
Mercedes is a day and a half ahead of everybody else. This pays out if he’s top
2. Ok, this bet didn’t work out last time because he had a horrendous start,
one of the worst in recent years but all else being equal there’s no way Bottas
should be 5 each way for top 2 (third odds), 5.25 with boost.
The Leclerc
bet also looked very good, 6.5 with boost and layable at 5.8 on Betfair at the
time of writing. I’ve decided to back both and hedge half my stake at current
odds with the other half hedged at 3. Little bit safety first, but there we are.
Quite
sleepy, but I’m quite surprised Bottas is green just for a top 2 finish.
Let’s hope
the race is entertaining and profitable.
Morris
Dancer
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