Mid-season review
Some news!
Ricciardo has signed a
two year deal, starting next season, to drive for Renault alongside
Hulkenberg. It was one of the outside possibilities, and the question
is whether this will mirror Hamilton’s cunning move to Mercedes or
Alonso’s disastrous move to McLaren. Or, indeed, be in between.
In other news, Force
India seems to have been rescued. That’s great news, not only for
the team itself but for F1 more generally. If the most financially
efficient team, which has finished 4th in the last couple
of seasons, couldn’t stay in and ended up crashing out that
would’ve been a very poor look indeed. Kudos to Perez who, rather
ironically, knowingly saved the day by taking legal action over the
debt owed to him by the team in order to prevent another debtor
taking a far harsher measure. But for Perez, Force India could well,
it seems, have gone under.
And now, the mid-season
rambling.
It’s fair to say
that, from a betting perspective, the first half of 2018 has easily
been my worst start to a season since I started in 2009. Some bets
failed due to sheer misjudgement, but I’ve also had more bad luck
than I think I’ve ever had before. For example, at least one and
possibly two bets at the first race became red because of Haas’
very rare double pit stop cock-up. I backed, at massive odds, Sauber
and Williams to win first practice in Germany (they dominated the top
three in third practice but I didn’t back that because the forecast
said it would be dry, and it wasn’t) and so on.
From a sporting
perspective, the first half of this year has been notable for the
higher than recently usual number of retirements and misfortune.
Every one of the drivers has had at least one DNF. Bottas could
easily be a title contender, with 50-60 odd points more, had he not
suffered misfortune. Red Bull have had a lot of failures too. Lower
down, Haas could have a lot more points. Meanwhile, Renault’s
reliability has helped it into a good position as best of the rest.
Hamilton and Vettel are
vying for the title with their team mates, and the Red Bull drivers,
contending for 3rd. Behind them, Hulkenberg, Magnussen,
and Alonso are fairly close for best of the midfield.
Both Vettel and
Hamilton have made mistakes. Hamilton has been downcast and
lacklustre at a number of races, being robbed by fate of victory in
the first race but subsequently benefiting from some good luck (as
well as incurring more bad). Vettel’s driving has generally been
solid but he’s suffered some misfortune and made a small number of
critical errors (most notably in Germany). In car terms, the Ferrari
currently seems the tastier.
We’ve also seen many
safety cars, at almost every race excepting Monaco (and also Hungary,
although the latter circuit is the one least likely to see a safety
car, whereas Monaco is second only to Singapore in likelihood of one
appearing).
Here’s my
team-by-team rundown of the season to date, splitting them into
upper, middle, and lower echelons.
Top dogs
Mercedes
Mercedes are locked in
two tight title battles with Ferrari. Their qualifying advantage, on
paper, seems to have been lost, although that hasn’t stopped
Hamilton getting more poles in the last few races. Aided by good
fortune (to counterbalance the bad earlier), they’ve extended their
lead a little recently. It’s going to stay close between the Silver
Arrows and the Prancing Horse all the way, I think.
Ferrari
Speaking of Ferrari,
they seem to have a slight edge in qualifying (on raw pace) and in
the race. They’re the only team to score at every race and, with
Mercedes, have the joint best reliability. A recent mystery upgrade
appears to give them a power boost in qualifying but can’t run in
the race. Both teams have made some errors and suffered the vagaries
of fate, and I expect things to stay close all season long.
Red Bull
Red Bull have more DNFs
than Ferrari and Mercedes combined. That, even more than compromised
qualifying pace, has hamstrung their title challenge efforts. They’re
about 100 points off the sharp end, but about 140 ahead of Renault,
in a lonely 3rd place. Race pace is pretty good, but they
lose out in qualifying as the Ferrari and Mercedes have superior
engine modes, and in races they’ve got 8 DNFs to their rivals’ 3
apiece.
Midfield
Renault
Renault are practically
a byword for reliability this year. Two fast and trusty drivers in
Hulkenberg and Sainz help, they’ve scored at all but one race so
far, and have more points finishes than any other midfield or
backmarker team. Currently best of the rest in the standings, they
have a good chance of finishing there, although Haas’ resurgence
could prove a challenge.
Haas
Haas suffered from
significant human error early on the season, throwing away a double
points finish in Oz and then seeing Grosjean go a long time without a
points finish. More recently the Frenchman got his act together (and
Magnussen has scored pretty consistently throughout the first half of
the year). From the 4th race, when they were just a point
ahead of Sauber, they’ve moved to 5th, second in the
midfield to Renault. From the French GP they’ve made 39 points to
Renault’s 20. At that rate, they’ll end up best of the rest.
However, from Austria (after France), Haas gained 17 points to
Renault’s 20. I think it’ll be close but would make Renault
slight favourites to top the midfield.
Force India
Force India started the
season surprisingly badly, after a couple of 4th placed
finishes in the Constructors’ recently. In the first three races
they scored a grand total of one point. However, they’ve recovered
well to be seven points adrift of Haas and seven points ahead of
McLaren. Money worries may compromise their performance, but with
things so close they could finish almost anywhere in the midfield
(I’d be surprised if they could overhaul Renault, though).
McLaren
McLaren started the
season well off the sharp end but significantly better than recent
years, so very much a glass half-full or half-empty scenario. They
scored at every one of the first five races then didn’t get a point
for the three after that. They’ve scored consistently more recently
but at a slower rate than Renault, Haas, or Force India. Although
it’s a tight contest, particularly with Haas and Force India, I
suspect McLaren may end up coming off worst.
Backmarkers
Toro Rosso
After finishing 6th
in an early race (Gasly) there was much chuntering about Honda being
wonderful and McLaren being fools for ending their contract. As it
turned out, the truth was a little more nuanced than that. Honda have
made a significant step forward but the McLaren is still much better
than the Toro Rosso and it appears Renault is still at least somewhat
ahead of the Honda engine. Toro Rosso have had a bit of a lumpy
season to date, with the joint highest number of DNFs (along with Red
Bull) and fewer points finishes than anyone except Williams. However,
those scoring results have tended to be quite good, so they’re 8th
in the Constructors’. I don’t think they’ll rise any higher but
might be under threat from Sauber.
Sauber
A significant
improvement on last year, helped by new driver Leclerc living up to
his hype (it remains to be seen whether he’ll get promoted to
Ferrari or end up staying with Sauber, which would help them quite a
lot). They’ve had multiple points finishes, with both drivers, and
may end up overhauling Toro Rosso.
Williams
Williams have had a
torrid time this year. It seems a significant aerodynamic problem was
part of the car design (by accident, of course) causing rear
instability during high speed cornering. On the plus side, this means
a relatively great leap forward could happen next year. However,
they’re currently last of the teams and likely to stay that way for
the whole season. Currently, they have just a single points finish.
That’s the state of
play after the Hungarian Grand Prix. How do I see things developing?
Amongst the top chaps,
I think Mercedes will probably get the Constructors’. The winner
between Hamilton and Vettel is trickier to call. I think it should be
Vettel. Not putting money on it though.
The midfield is very
tasty. I think Force India and McLaren will hold station. Haas are on
a bit of a charge, but Renault has two good drivers and a reliable
car too. I’d probably make Renault the slight favourite to top the
midfield.
Amongst the slower
cars, I fear Williams need an immense stroke of luck to rise above
the foot of the table. Whilst Sauber made a lot of progress chipping
away at the gap to Toro Rosso, the significant points recently scored
by the latter team have rolled Sisyphus’ boulder all the way back
to the bottom of the hill. I think Toro Rosso will finish ahead of
Sauber.
There’s also a market
on the driver to get Ricciardo’s seat. Initially it was a two horse
race between Gasly and Sainz (the former the favourite) although
Alonso’s odds tumbled from 51 to just 6, making it a three man
contest (in the market, at least). I think Raikkonen’s also an
outside shot (circa 30) but nobody else has a chance. Not sure when
we’ll find out. The team has quite a while to decide, there’s
still half a season to go, but obviously they’ll want to settle it
as soon as reasonably possible or they might find their preferred
driver has already signed for someone else.
Morris Dancer
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