Malaysia: post-race analysis 2017
The last race in
Malaysia was a very entertaining one. Rather a shame we’re losing
it and retaining the processional tedium of Monaco, Azerbaijan and
Singapore, but there we are. From a betting perspective, a bit wonky.
The Raikkonen bet was voided and the Verstappen bet failed, so down
one stake.
The drama started
before the race began. Raikkonen’s car was looking iffy (it seems
the high temperatures were affecting the turbo, similar to the
problem that ruined Vettel’s qualifying). Despite efforts to mend
it, first on the grid and then in the garage, the Finn was unable to
start the race.
Off the line, Ricciardo
lost a place to Bottas, Vandoorne climbed significantly (up to 5th),
and Vettel picked up a few places.
Ocon was caught in a
Perez-Massa sandwich (not really his fault, or anyone’s). He ended
up needing an early pit stop, which rather compromised his race.
At the sharper end, the
Red Bulls were right on the tails of the Mercedes. Verstappen didn’t
merely keep pace with Hamilton, he passed him and then proceeded to
drive off into the sunset. Ricciardo had a trickier time passing
Bottas (for 3rd) but when he did the Aussie likewise
pulled out a significant lead with little apparent effort.
Further down the field,
Vettel (who had started on the soft tyre, unlike almost everyone else
who had begun on the supersoft) was picking off other drivers
one-by-one, aided by most of them pitting before him. His actual pace
was outstanding, making it all the sadder that woe afflicted him in
qualifying and his team mate before the race began.
He did get bottled up
behind Bottas but managed to pass the Finn through the pit stops, the
German’s occurring exactly halfway through the race.
Further down the field,
Alonso passed the weaving Magnussen (who didn’t leave much room),
and complained on the radio that Hulkenberg was right about him
[Magnussen]. Palmer spun, lost places, then was ahead of Sainz when
the two came together and Palmer spun again. Whether karma or woe,
Sainz shortly thereafter suffered a reliability failure and became
only the second man to fail to be classified.
At the feisty end,
Ricciardo was closing on Hamilton, but not quickly enough to avoid
being caught by the very fast Vettel (who was on the supersoft
against the Aussie’s soft). Vettel was unable to pass, though, as
he only had a lap or two before his tyre lost peak performance, and
one of these was compromised by Alonso letting Ricciardo through
under blue flags but, briefly, holding up Vettel. The German had a
single genuine overtaking opportunity but Ricciardo was able to fend
him off. Nevertheless, to rise from last to 4th on merit,
with no helpful safety car or wet weather intervening, speaks of a
great drive but also that Ferrari, whilst fragile this weekend,
probably had the best car.
I was surprised that
Red Bull was notably faster than the Mercedes, and although it was a
red result, it was nevertheless great to see Verstappen notch his
second career win with a flawless drive. Ricciardo got 3rd,
making it a very good day for Red Bull (and the win also helped
Vettel due to the seven point gap between 1st and 2nd).
Hamilton was never able
to close on Verstappen and may be relieved he got 2nd and
had Ricciardo between himself and Vettel. Having started 1st
and 19th, the title rivals finished 2nd and
4th, and Hamilton’s lead was extended by 6 points.
Bottas, meanwhile, was slow, finishing 44 seconds behind his team
mate (with 56 laps, almost a second a lap slower).
Perez got 6th,
and his team mate managed to grab 10th for yet another
double points finish for Force India. Vandoorne drove impressively
all weekend to get 7th, (Alonso was 11th).
Stroll and Massa were 8th and 9th, so useful
points for Williams.
Gasly drove an assured
debut race and finished 14th.
As an aside, Vettel got
the fastest lap, four-tenths faster than his closest rivals.
So, a red weekend. The
Raikkonen bet was at least credible given his team mate got the
fastest lap, but there’s not much that can be done about a DNS.
Shame the Verstappen bet didn’t work out, but from a racing and
title perspective it was a thoroughly entertaining result.
Drivers:
Hamilton 281
Vettel 247
A 34 point gap with
five races remaining is significant. It’s not impossible to
overhaul, but the odds are strongly against it. If Vettel wins every
remaining race and Hamilton is 2nd, that would mean the
German wins by 1 point. However, Red Bull’s performance in Malaysia
means that they can be a factor in this. Who that might help remains
to be seen.
Constructors:
Mercedes 503
Ferrari 385
Red Bull 270
Force India 133
Williams 65
Toro Rosso 52
Renault 42
Haas 37
McLaren 23
Sauber 5
Top four remain nailed
on, and I’m beginning to think Williams will hold onto 5th.
Renault need to make some headway, and Haas have been a bit poor
lately too.
The next race we’re
off to, next weekend, is Japan. Often home to great races and wet
weather, Ferrari must make up ground.
Morris Dancer
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