Spain: pre-race 2017
Obviously, Raikkonen
didn’t get pole, but the tip was green or not depending on whether
you hedged. As an experiment, for the first time I put a little on
the Ladbrokes exchange (identical set-up) but the hedge was not
matched.
In the first part of
qualifying, all the cars to depart were from different teams. From
fastest to slowest, Ericsson, Palmer, Stroll, Vandoorne and Kvyat
failed to progress. Quite surprised that Stroll and Kvyat were so
slow.
Q2 was rather
competitive, with just a tenth covering the fastest three to leave at
this stage. Magnussen, Sainz and Hulkenberg were the fastest three,
with Grosjean and Wehrlein bringing up the rear. The Renault has not
performed well so far, and Grosjean struggled to keep his Haas on the
road at times. However, Q2 was remarkable for the Spaniard who
escaped it. Alonso reached Q3 for the first time this year.
In Q2, things had
seemed very close at the sharp end, with Mercedes better able to
preserve their tyre life for the final sector. And so it proved in
Q3. Hamilton got pole, half a tenth ahead of Vettel. Bottas was next,
with Raikkonen quick for the first two sectors but dropping half a
second in the last and ending up 4th on the grid.
Verstappen and
Ricciardo, unsurprisingly, got the third row, and Alonso did
fantastically well to get 7th. The McLaren chassis seems
pretty good, so this may be worth considering ahead of Monaco and
Singapore.
Perez, Massa and Ocon
finish off the top 10.
A two stop (soft, soft,
medium) is predicted for the race, with the hard compound being of
use only as a foot stool in the garage. With passing difficult and a
safety car possible but not certain, there is scope for tactical
shenanigans, and if a car comes out in traffic it’ll find it hard
to get past.
The soft is
substantially faster, something daft like two and a half seconds, so
tiny stints on the medium may be what we see.
Just glancing at the
grid, the first bet ideas that spring to mind were:
Bottas, win, each way
Alonso, top 6
Force India, double
score
I was mildly
disconcerted to see Bottas is out at 8 for the win, each way. I think
he stands a pretty good chance, having started well in the races so
far, of leapfrogging one or both of the cars ahead of him (and
Vettel’s had some reliability problems this weekend). This looks
quite tempting, to be honest.
Alonso is 4.33 to get
top 6. Now, I think he has the pace to be there if someone ahead of
him screws up or breaks down. My concern is his 100% DNF (well,
DNF/DNS) record this year due to his car failing. For points, he’s
1.83, although the top 6 seems more tempting to me given Vettel’s
reliability problems and Red Bull having a few DNFs themselves. But
can he actually finish the race?
Force India are 2.1 for
a double points finish. Not long odds, but they both start top 10 and
have a perfect record of finishing in the points so far, and
excellent reliability. Like Kylie Minogue, the odds are short but
nevertheless appealing.
Oddly, quite tempted by
all of those. When the markets woke up I had a quick perusal to see
if anything leapt out at me.
Verstappen/Ricciardo,
not to be classified, 5/6
The Red Bulls have a
3/8 DNF rate, due entirely to reliability. Given that, splitting one
stake to back both drivers not to finish seems value to me (also,
Spain is quite tight so if they make a mistake or get a knock that
could easily do for them).
So, I’m in the
peculiar position of having a small number of bets, all of which seem
quite interesting.
Whilst I think Force
India have a good shot at double points, the potential for traffic
problems and short odds put me off.
I quite like Alonso to
be top 6, but I just can’t trust his car to make it.
Prevaricated for a long
while on the Bottas bet. In the end, I decided to back it (each way, Ladbrokes, 8). His
pace in qualifying was very very close to both Vettel and Hamilton
and he’s started just about every race well. Plus, Vettel's reliability seems a bit dubious.
I’ve decided to back
Verstappen and Ricciardo not to be classified, at 5 and 6
respectively (Ladbrokes, half-stake each). Let’s hope they collide
on lap one and the rest of the race is a tight Ferrari-Mercedes
battle with a Bottas win.
Morris Dancer
Hmmm I don't know. I like Vettel for the win but you're right that the Bottas 8/1 has great appeal. I'll have a think about that.
ReplyDeletePerez likes this circuit and I think a top 6 should be within his abilities. And as Stroll is familiar with this track I'm hoping that he'll finish ("!) and I'm going to have a pint on him getting Points at 11/4.
To be honest I have no view either way on Verstappen and Ricciardo finishing but I'm going to follow you in so that I get a little bit extra to cheer on whilst I'm watching.
I'd planned to go this year but work has dictated otherwise. I'm very involved in a big Gib Govt project and we launch a section of it next week. So it's been no rest for me for a few months and certainly no visit to my nearest F1 race. Next year, I hope!
Hey, Mr. M.
ReplyDeleteHope your project goes well.
Vettel could well win. Tricky to call. Perez for top 6 is a credible result although I'm not sure if the odds are appealing.
I suspect the Stroll bet will fail. The Williams just seems a bit slow.