Mexico: pre-qualifying 2016.
After some discussion
on the impact of thinner air (higher altitude) on aerodynamics and
whether this would minimise or exacerbate variance in aerodynamic
performance, it was decided that Mexico is a power circuit.
Accordingly, this harms Honda the most, then Renault. Ferrari, having
weaker aero but a lovely engine, benefit (as do Williams versus Force
India). The Toro Rosso also seems likely to struggle.
In P1, Hamilton was
fastest, but less than a tenth ahead of Vettel, who was a similar
margin ahead of Raikkonen. Perez, Hulkenberg and Bottas were next,
with Rosberg only 7th. Ricciardo, Massa and Kvyat rounded
out the top 10.
Second practice saw an
even greater surprise with Vettel topping the timesheet
four-thousandths ahead of Hamilton [that said, the Briton had a
scruffy lap. On pure pace, the Mercedes was faster]. Rosberg was 3rd
but half a second off his team mate and just three-hundredths ahead
of Raikkonen. Ricciard, Hulkenberg and Verstappen were next, with
Bottas, Sainz and Alonso following.
In P1, Verstappen’s
rear brakes (both) were on fire. Also, plenty of cars were squirming
due to lack of rear grip, and lock ups were pretty common.
At this stage the
qualifying bet worth considering is Vettel for pole each way at 12
(or perhaps 1.8 for top 3 on Betfair).
In P3, Verstappen was
fastest, a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Next up was Ricciardo, another
tenth back, then Rosberg (three-tenths), Bottas and Vettel.
Raikkonen, Massa, Hulkenberg and Sainz round out the top 10.
Traffic for Mercedes
and messed up laps for Ferrari means their times aren’t reflective
of actual pace. Both the BBC radio commentary and Sky chaps thought
that Red Bull have the legs on Ferrari (personally, I’m not sure
it’s that clear cut).
Both qualifying and the
race itself should be dry.
Pole may be a contest,
although there are many reports that low speed trap times for
Mercedes are indicative of their engines being turned down (ie they
still have a substantial advantage over the field). It may also
indicate that the likes of Williams and Force India may be more
competitive than they might otherwise be.
My feeling is that
Hamilton’s strong favourite for pole but seeing where Rosberg ends
up will be altogether more interesting.
It’s quite easy to
bugger up a lap around the Mexican circuit, though. This is because
of a tricky twisty bit where rear grip can vanish, and traffic can be
a serious problem. Plenty of locking tyres too (the supersoft appears
good for two qualifying laps).
After a bit of a wait
for the Ladbrokes’ markets, I’ve decided against betting.
Hamilton’s odds for pole are too short to tempt and I can’t see
value elsewhere.
Qualifying starts at
7pm. The pre-race piece will be up tomorrow.
Morris Dancer
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