Spain: pre-qualifying 2016
Fireworks on the 5th.
Kvyat, after a very bad race in Russia, was demoted to the Toro Rosso
team, with Verstappen promoted to Red Bull.
Must say I’m shocked.
Yes, Kvyat had a horrendous Russian race. He also got a podium in
China at the preceding event. Everyone has bad races, and whilst
Kvyat damaged his own race, Ricciardo’s and (most blatantly)
Vettel’s, his offences were ill-judgement rather than being
outright dangerous (as per Grosjean at the 2012 Belgian Grand Prix).
Red Bull’s drastic
reaction, many calling it over the top, may be more about Verstappen
than Kvyat. The Wunderkind is at contract with Red Bull until 2017.
However, he’s very highly rated and the team may well fear the
likes of Ferrari or Mercedes tempting him away. Promotion to the main
Red Bull team could be a way of trying to sink hooks into Verstappen.
However, that doesn’t
mean Kvyat’s getting fair treatment. He was 100% at fault in
Russia, but one bad race leading to immediate, in-season demotion is
harsh. It also comes after Red Bull’s unedifying whining about
Renault in 2015. The team’s looking a shade flighty.
Before Ladbrokes
changed the odds, Verstappen was 251 to win (for comparison,
Ricciardo and Kvyat were 34 and 67 respectively). After, he was 41
(interesting to compare that with Kvyat’s 67). I put a tiny sum on
him to win each way (1st or 1/3 odds of 2nd) at
the longer odds. Whilst it’s still very unlikely, the Red Bull is
the third best car and the top two have dodgy reliability. Plus, the
circuit may well suit the Red Bull.
The Prancing Horses may
gallop a little faster this weekend as, apparently, they had an
engine upgrade but didn’t turn it to full power (for reasons of
caution) in Russia. They will this weekend.
In the first practice
session the Ferraris ruled the roost with Vettel just a tenth ahead
of his team mate. Rosberg was four-tenths back, a small margin ahead
of Hamilton. Ricciardo and Verstappen, the new team mates, were next,
with Bottas, Sainz, Massa and Alonso rounding out the top 10.
P2 had the natural
order restored, mostly. Rosberg was top, two-tenths up on Raikkonen.
Hamilton, weirdly, was half a second back from the Finn, and Vettel
was nearly a second behind his team mate. Sainz was next, ahead of
Ricciardo (one imagines the Spaniard smiled to see that), with
Alonso, Verstappen, Perez and Hulkenberg following.
At this stage, it’s
look good for Rosberg for pole, a strong start for Verstappen and
points eminently possible for Alonso (Button’s engine died during
P2, not sure why). On the negative side, Renault suffered two
punctures (same car but different drivers as Ocon[sp] stood in for
Palmer in P1), Button’s engine failed and Kvyat needs to get a move
on or his demotion could be a stepping stone to being tossed
overboard.
In P3, Rosberg was
fastest, a couple of tenths ahead of Hamilton, who was closely
followed by Vettel. Verstappen was next, a tenth ahead of Ricciardo,
with Raikkonen three-tenths back. Bottas, Perez, Kvyat and Alonso
round out the top 10 (interesting the last four are all from
different teams).
Rosberg had an issue in
the third practice session which led him to return to the pits late
on, which makes me a bit nervous of betting on him. He subsequently
got going without further issue. Raikkonen was held up by a Manor on
his fast lap, so the time is not representative.
Rosberg’s evens for
pole, Hamilton 2.25. Too close to call, I think.
So, alas, no bet for
qualifying.
It’ll
be intriguing to see how Verstappen does, whether Haas can pick up
the pace, Alonso make Q3 and if Palmer gets another back left
puncture.
Morris Dancer
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