India: early discussion

“Looking ahead to India - a track where Sauber's traction and good top speed should be important - Hulkenberg said he hopes to repeat the recent strong results.”

http://www.espn.co.uk/japan/motorsport/story/130033.html

Sauber have had a very good run of late, and I suspect they’ll manage to overhaul Force India. McLaren would be more difficult for them to pass, but not impossible (unlikely, though). Not sure if there’s any market on them beating Force India, but if you find one you may wish to consider it.

In the last 4 races Lotus have made 77 points, Ferrari 79 and Mercedes 52. The standings (2nd to 4th) are:

Ferrari 297

Mercedes 287

Lotus 264

Whilst Lotus have had two great races I think they’ll have a job on to beat Ferrari for second (such a market is up on Betfair). Mercedes are in danger of being overtaken, however.

At the time of writing neither market has gotten going for two bets (one qualifying, one race) I’ve got in mind. Grosjean to be top 3 in qualifying sounds promising (I’d accept 3 and be very happy with 4), and No Safety Car (as there’s been none in either of the two Grands Prix to date) at reasonable odds would be good.

Incidentally, I’ve just realised that this is the fifth year I’ve offered F1 tips (counting 2009, where I only started doing it regularly halfway into the season). So I might do a post or two, after this season’s concluded, looking back at how things have changed in F1, and how my results have gone up and down.

The reasoning for lack of safety cars is probably because there’s so many large run off areas in India (a common feature of new, boring circuits). My guess is that passing will be hard, putting a premium on track position and strategic cunning. This may hamper Webber, who tends to start badly, advantage Alonso and disadvantage Mercedes, who have been buggering up their strategy of late.

There’s still no confirmation on Hulkenberg’s seat for next year, but Joe Saward’s put up a piece which explains the Lotus/Force India question mark:

http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2013/10/19/what-is-happening-at-team-willy/

In essence, if Lotus can finally got their big money sponsorship deal sorted they’ll be financially secure and able to hire Hulkenberg (on the basis of speed rather than money). However, if the deal falls through (or drags on so long the driver is forced to sign up somewhere else just to ensure he has a seat) he’ll go to Force India.

Assuming that’s true, it means either Sutil or Di Resta is vulnerable (although Eddie Jordan reckons the Scot is safe in terms of a seat in F1).

The piece also refers to Maldonado and the evil genius of William’s lawyers. Basically, they get a big pile of money for having Maldonado in the team. But, if he leaves they get compensation, in the form of a big pile of money, and his new team can’t get any from the Venezuelan Government (which bankrolls his Williams’ seat). It does sound like Maldonado is not well-loved at Williams, though their financial (and performance) situation may mean he stays on anyway. Returning to Eddie Jordan, for it is he, he opined after the Japanese Grand Prix that Maldonado would not be at Williams next year.

A word on timing: India has a weird timezone, in that it’s half an hour out of kilter with just about everywhere else. I’ve read that this is because, being the jewel in the crown of the British Empire, people wanted to be able to know the time in India easily. So, if you turn your watch upside down, it gives you the Indian time. Qualifying and the race start at half past nine in the morning. I’m unsure when I’ll put up the pre-qualifying piece, as P3 ends at half past seven (obviously I can get up by that time, but it’s a question if I’ll be too groggy-headed for the fine judgement and subtle cunning needed for betting).

Morris Dancer