Mid-season review - betting
I’m posting this on both http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/,
the new home of my F1 articles/tips this season, and http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/,
the old one, so that people who frequented the old site and may’ve missed the
move are made aware.
The mid-season review for betting will be shorter than usual
because I’ve covered much of it previously.
Normally, my season would involve a slow start, a strong end
to the first half, a second half slump and a slight pick up at the end. This
season has been weird. I had a great start, and a slump for almost all the rest
of the first half of the season.
In addition, I’ve always made smaller bets (often early on),
and not tipped them on the basis of either buyer’s remorse, lack of liquidity
or because I’m trying something new and cunning. Typically, these have made me
losses, but this season I’ve had two winners at 8 (Rosberg to win Monaco
and Lotus to top score in Germany).
In short, this is Bizarro-season.
However, I think I’ve identified some of the reasons I’ve
been screwing up. Ironically, my assessment of pace before the first qualifying
occurred was actually spot on, but since then it’s strayed. I was too slow to
recognise the Mercedes-Red Bull hegemony in qualifying and to realise that
Ferrari and Lotus were drifting back on race pace.
It’s also important to consider that the first half of the
season may be of less use than usual for predicting the second half, perhaps
excepting Germany.
That’s because the tyres are going to change in-season for safety reasons, and
the practice of swapping rear tyres has been banned. This appears to have
returned Mercedes to their tyre-chewing ways (and Mercedes alone will lack the
opportunity to test the new tyres before Hungary)
and has also hampered Force India.
Ferrari’s pace seems somewhat diminished, whereas Lotus is both fast and kind
on its tyres. Red Bull probably remains top dog overall.
Hopefully the season will continue its Bizarro form, and
instead of a latter-season slump I’ll enjoy some great success. At the moment
the results are red for both hedged and non-hedged, although the hedged loss is
less than half the non-hedged loss.
The racing review will be up after the Young Driver Test,
which may afford an opportunity to assess the tyres and their impact upon the
forthcoming races.
Morris Dancer
As usual, there appears to be very little value in the Hungarian GP betting markets, certainly among the big boys.
ReplyDeleteUltimately, out of frustration, I opted for having just a couple of quid on Ricciardo finishing top 6 having asked for and surprisingly obtaining 9.8 (8.4/1 net in real money) with Betfair. This is way ahead of the rest of the market and is rather a longshot I know, but then it's a long price. I'll be looking to lay this off during the race if possible.
Bit of an unexpected place for a comment, Mr. Putney.
ReplyDeleteThat might work out. Ricciardo's been qualifying well recently and Hungary's a circuit where it's hard to overtake.
Oops, sorry - I posted my comment above under the wrong thread - for the record I'll post it again correctly, along with my subsequent "bottom fishing" bets.
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