China: pre-race 2024

I didn’t get up to watch the sprint race at 4am because I’m not a lunatic, however, I did catch the highlights. Alas for the weather forecast, as the 1.9 on Verstappen would’ve come off. But then, no bet means no win.

Sprint

In the sprint, Hamilton had a good start, Norris a poor one compounded by going wide and dropping well down the order. Interestingly, it took until lap 7 (of 19) for Verstappen to pass Alonso despite the two long straights. Only two more laps were needed for him to pass Hamilton, although the latter driver did have an earlier lockup that made it easier for the Dutchman to get inside DRS range.

Lap 16 saw Sainz pass Alonso, who put up a spirited defence but whose care was clearly slower than the Red Bull or Ferrari. Alonso reclaimed the place and while the Spaniards were squabbling Perez passed the pair. Moments later, Alonso was passed by both Sainz and Leclerc. Incidentally, the next lap saw a very tasty battle between the Ferraris, and Sainz was unafraid to get his elbows out. Lap 17 also saw Norris rise up as Alonso pitted (his Aston Martin had a front right puncture, which makes it slightly trickier assessing his true pace). Ultimately, Leclerc did get ahead of Sainz.

On race pace, I’d suggest Red Bull top (shocking, I know), then Ferrari, Mercedes/McLaren. Alonso went backward the whole race, it seems the puncture likely came when he was up against Sainz but he was drifting down the order anyway.

 

Qualifying

Qualifying for the race proper was dry, unlike the sprint nonsense. This changed things quite a bit, as did a tailwind into the hairpin which then became a headwind into the last corner, catching out a number of drivers.

The most obvious example is Hamilton, who was on to reach Q2 comfortably but braked too late, locked up, and ended up eliminated in Q1. Another surprise departure was Tsunoda, who seemed confused by the lack of pace (he got outqualified by Ricciardo for the first time this year). Zhou Guanyu, Magnussen, and Sargeant also went out in Q1.

Q2 saw Stroll eliminated as the fastest to leave at this stage, once again outclassed by Alonso. Ricciardo’s 12^th is pretty good for him, especially given his team mate is seven places further back. Ocon, Albon, and Gasly also failed to progress (although both Alpines making it out of Q1 is a positive step).

Q3 was Verstappen’s all day long but the battle for 2^nd was intense and changed numerous times on the final runs. From Perez, who got it, to Sainz (7^th) three-tenths covered them all.

 

So it’s an all-Red Bull front row and hard to see them failing to convert that into a 1-2 in the race, especially as the long straights present ample opportunity for recovering should either start poorly.

The second row is Alonso and Norris, but both had poor sprints (Alonso due to general lack of pace, Norris due to a terrible start). Piastri and Leclerc line up behind them, with Sainz and Russell (10 places ahead of Hamilton) on row four. Hulkenberg, under investigation for barging ahead in the pits, and Bottas complete the top 10. 

Early Betting Thoughts

Norris/Piastri podium

Leclerc/Sainz podium

Hamilton points

The race for the runner-up to Verstappen in qualifying was ultra-close, and it’s credible to see half a dozen drivers, or more, ending up on the podium. Norris and Piastri start 4^th and 5^th, and while Alonso’s ahead of them and a great defensive driver his Aston Martin simply looked behind the rest on race pace. Norris is 3.75 for a podium, and Piastri is 11. I think those odds, especially Piastri’s, are too long thanks to a probable focus on the Ferraris. Who were good in the sprint but only finished narrowly ahead of the McLarens.

The odds definitely have the Prancing Horses as second favourites, as Sainz is 2.4 and Leclerc just under evens for a podium. They start 6^th and 7^th, behind both McLarens. I think the markets have this wrong. 

All weekend long, Hamilton has had the legs on Russell, but a cock-up and a lock-up at the end of the straight put him down in 18^th. Long way to go to reach the points but the Mercedes looked tasty on sprint performance. However, 1.3 is too short as there’s always the chance of an unlucky turn and I dislike backing things that short.

 

Perusing the Markets

I skimmed the markets to see if anything else leapt out at me.

Perez at 9 each way to win is still value. Yes, it’s the most boring bet in the world. He’s also finished 2^nd at three-quarters of the races to date.

Norris is 5.5 to win group 1 which includes the Ferraris and Alonso. This is perhaps better than the podium bet, although one could argue the toss. I think Alonso will fade away as per the sprint.

 

Anyway, I’ve backed Perez each way at 9.5 with boost, half a stake on Piastri to get on the podium at 12 and half a stake on Norris to win group 1 at 5.75.

Because two are half-stake bets I’m going to count that as a single one in the records.

Race starts at 8am tomorrow morning.

 

Morris Dancer