Canada: post-race analysis 2017
A cracking race from
start to finish, marred only by the bets going mostly wrong. The
safety car appeared due to daft driving by Sainz on lap one (whilst
there were incidents later in the race it never emerged again,
suggesting that the Spaniard’s silliness was the blame rather than
the nature of the circuit). Raikkonen failed to get fastest lap,
partially due to bad luck, but the hedge was happily matched so that
bet ended up green. And the short odds bets on Ocon and Palmer both
came off in a pretty straightforward manner. I might check
match/group bets again, if they make repeat appearances.
A note, I’m writing
this the day after the night before and the race was crammed with
incident, so apologies in advance if I miss off little snippets or
get the order a bit wrong.
Initially, the start
seemed straightforward, but into the first corner Verstappen leapt
all the way into 2nd and both Ferraris slid back. Worse
still, Vettel’s front wing took a bit of a knock. Massa also had a
poor start and his first lap became terminal when Sainz tried to cut
across Grosjean, got tilted around and struck Massa whilst going in
reverse at a significant rate of knots. The safety car emerged.
Hamilton was cruising
off to victory, Verstappen was in great shape, the Force Indias were
going well, and ahead of them (behind Bottas) was Ricciardo. Vettel’s
nose took another knock and even though it was only lap 5 (of 70) he
had to be pitted for the supersoft. This shoved him to the back of
the race, more or less.
But he wasn’t the
only one to suffer problems. Verstappen, who had had a great start
and strong pace throughout, suffered an electrical failure that ended
his race and brought out a virtual safety car. Very unfortunate for
the Dutchman, and another reliability failure for Red Bull.
This put Bottas into
2nd and Ricciardo 3rd, but the Aussie, having
pitted, was chased very closely by the two Force Indias. The Pink
Panthers had also pitted, but Perez (ahead on track) had older tyres
than the clearly faster Ocon. The Frenchman asked to be let through
on team radio and though this was limply suggested to Perez, the
Mexican flatly refused. Not much iron will at Force India (it
would’ve been the right call, with the option of swapping them back
if Ocon couldn’t pass Ricciardo) and I imagine there’s now a
little bit of bad feeling over that.
At this stage of the
race Hamilton had completed the Telegraph crossword and moved onto
the Financial Times’.
Vettel was stomping
through the field like a gallivanting female Ted Heath, but had a
slight problem in that Raikkonen was ahead of him. However, this was
remedied through unorthodox means. Raikkonen was pitted for ultrasoft
tyres, emerging just behind Vettel in position (there was a big gap
with Alonso behind). At this stage, my Raikkonen fastest lap bet was
looking rather tasty (I suspect this is when the hedge at evens was
matched).
He was told Vettel was
staying out, and initially that was true, but having done so many
laps on his tyres the German did end up pitting (the Ferraris were
the only chaps, I think, who had two rather than one stops).
Then the inevitable
happened. Alonso’s engine blew up as he was running with good pace
in a strong 7th (or thereabouts). It is sounding more and
more like Mercedes will have an engine in the back of McLaren next
year, *if* that can be legally agreed with Honda [NB backing Alonso
for the 2018 title if you can get super odds may be worth
considering. The McLaren chassis is tasty].
Vettel was catching
Raikkonen, and both of them were catching Ocon. But then Raikkonen
suffered a brake by wire problem. He seems to have got it mended but
it cost him about 6s a lap of pace for a few laps, and it seemed for
a while that he’d end up falling out of the points altogether.
Naturally, Vettel cruised past then reached the back of Ocon.
Going into the first
corner, Perez, Ocon and Vettel were almost side-by-side. The Mexican
retained position but Vettel (holding the racing line) forced Ocon to
run wide. The German went on to pass Perez and claim 4th,
in an excellent piece of damage limitation after a very bad start to
the race and an extra pit stop. He was very close to Ricciardo but
couldn’t quite pass the Aussie, who had a fantastic defensive drive
for most of the race, fending off cars behind that were clearly
quicker.
Hamilton finished his
second crossword, and won the race at a canter, heading up a Mercedes
1-2. A lovely day for the Silver Arrows.
Ferrari lost a lot of
ground today, but it could’ve been a lot worse. Vettel was 4th
and Raikkonen 7th, and the German’s title lead was
halved. Both teams will have some clunky races, but on such things a
tight season turns.
Mixed for Red Bull as
Ricciardo got a podium (have to have been a clever chap to see that
coming) and Verstappen’s great start was wrecked by reliability
woe. Force India had a cracking result, 5th and 6th,
perhaps slightly marred by management weakness and driver
intransigence (at the line there was a quarter of a second between
them as Ocon tried to pass again).
Hulkenberg had a good
solid race, although he could do with a bit more power in his
Renault. He also had an identical race time to Lance Stroll, who
finished behind the German to secure his first points.
Grosjean nabbed the
final point.
In addition to drivers
mentioned already, Kvyat had to be retired. The Russian was not best
pleased before that, making expletive-ridden radio messages (he had
received, stupidly, two penalties for the same offence, but even so).
So, the safety car bet
turned out to be rubbish, the Ocon/Palmer bet turned out to be
cunning (Palmer was 11th, Vandoorne 14th), and
the Raikkonen bet was green or red depending on whether you hedged or
not. The race is also green or red depending on if you hedged or not.
The weekend overall was either red by a tiny sum or just over two
stakes, on the same basis.
Not a great result.
It’s slightly annoying when the bets you decide against come off,
and the ones you go for don’t, but there we are.
Drivers’:
Vettel 141
Hamilton 129
Bottas 93
Raikkonen 73
Hamilton takes a big
bite out of Vettel’s lead, but if the Briton wins the next two
races and Vettel’s right behind then that would only lead to a 2
point lead for Hamilton.
Constructors’:
Mercedes 222
Ferrari 214
Raikkonen’s woe means
an even bigger turn around on this table, but I think there’s been
an over-reaction on the markets. Ferrari are now 3 for the title on
Ladbrokes. I’ve already backed them at 4.5, but if you haven’t
dipped a toe in the market, now may well be the time to put a little
on Ferrari (don't get carried away, they are weaker on reliability, although their car is more flexible than the Mercedes).
Some gossip from the
BBC today was of interest. Wolff reckons Rosberg might return to F1,
going to Ferrari. I can’t see it myself. Vettel won’t be going
anywhere and I can’t see Rosberg wanting to be a number two driver.
A more interesting rumour is that Kubica might come back. The Pole
was a fantastic driver and if he’s still got the pace he could be a
title contender.
The next race is the
irrationally named European Grand Prix. In Azerbaijan’s capital,
Baku. It was memorable last year for mostly being more tedious than
Monaco but with a ridiculous straight. I think that could be good for
Bottas and Perez. Hamilton was oddly rubbish there last year, and the
Finn’s got a great car for straight line speed. Force India proved
in Canada they’re similarly competitive on the straights and Perez
is very good on street circuits. Expecting woe unending for McLaren.
Again.
We visit Baku in a
fortnight.
Morris Dancer
Many thanks for an excellent summary which didn't - as you feared - suffer from the extra few hours in preparation.
ReplyDeleteI'm intrigued by your reference to a "female Edward Heath" as I can't for one moment think how a female version would differ from the actual person :)
Cheers, Mr. M.
DeleteJust a shame such a great race is being followed by perhaps the worst circuit on the calendar.