Monaco: pre-race
A plain misjudgement on
my part with Vettel. The colder temperatures may not have helped, and
if it had been rainier that could’ve swung it, but, then, if I’d
offered a winning tip that would’ve been nice too.
Q1 saw the traditional
departure of Manor Marussia. Both Saubers, whose car appears to be
struggling in the tight streets [worth remembering when we reach
Singapore], also exited, as did, surprisingly, Bottas. He didn’t
have a car issue, except in that it wasn’t very fast.
In Q2 Alonso was first
out when his engine decided to go on strike. Massa also failed to
escape, as did Hulkenberg [who was outclassed by his Mexican team
mate]. Button would’ve made it through, most likely, but a late
yellow flag forced him to slow. Grosjean was fastest of the Q2
departures, making this the first time in 2015 he’s been
out-qualified by Maldonado [who’s actually been driving pretty
well, I think].
In Q3 things were very
tight between the two Mercedes drivers, until Rosberg locked up badly
on his final run, and Hamilton went even faster to get pole. Vettel
starts 3rd, but well adrift of the Silver Arrows on pace,
with his erstwhile team mate Ricciardo alongside. Then we have Kvyat
and Raikkonen, and Perez. Sainz was 8th fastest, but
starts from the pit lane. Maldonado and Verstappen round out the Q3
result.
It’s Hamilton’s
first pole in Monaco, which sounds weird. Given the 90% pole to win
conversion rate over the last 10 races, that’s handy for him.
Surprised how bad the
Williams was. McLaren had more in it, but Alonso was screwed by
reliability and Button by a yellow flag that stopped the team
achieving a first Q3 appearance this year. Unusually, the Briton
appeared much happier with the car than the Spaniard.
As well as having
little opportunity for passing, the race’s excitement will not be
increased by the predicted one stop, minimising the potential for
strategic shenanigans. The weather forecast is for no rain.
Sainz starts from the
pit lane due to missing a weighbridge, and Grosjean has a five place
grid penalty for his gearbox being changed.
Potential bets:
Safety car
Button points
Raikkonen podium/top 6
Massa points
Lay Kvyat top 6
Kvyat not to be
classified
A safety car is very
likely. Not guaranteed (I don’t think we had one last year) but
probably 90% or so. 1.15 is available. That’s probably marginally
value. But I loathe short odds. The agony of choice…
Button starts 10th
due to the Grosjean and Sainz penalties. He’ll be behind
Verstappen, Maldonado and Perez, and I think he’s got the potential
to nab McLaren’s first points, though it’s not a certainty by any
stretch. The 1.83 for points (Ladbrokes) seems a bit stingy,
especially given McLaren’s reliability issues.
Raikkonen’s been
driving very well. I think the Ferrari has the edge over Red Bull.
The single stop and near impossibility of passing means he does have
the potential to do well, if the cards fall his way. A top 6 finish
is 1.28 (not worth it, with the risk of a crash, not necessarily his
own doing). Podium is 4.5. That might be worth a shot.
Massa is only 1.83 for
points. I just don’t think that’s value. In fact, if the money
were there I’d recommend laying it. The Williams has been slow
throughout the weekend so far.
Kvyat was swearing
angrily on the radio in practice, and has been a little
fiesty/aggressive/manic this year. At Monaco, that sort of nonsense
causes crashes. Plus the Red Bull may go backwards in the race. A lay
value of 1.88 is available for him to be top 6. Oddly, the ‘not to
be classified’ odds are only 2.75. In the prior 5 races, Kvyat’s
had 2 retirements [there’s also the general dodginess of the
Renault engine which could cost him].
Of the above bets, none
stands out as obvious value, but the Kvyat one seems most tempting.
I perused the betting
markets to see what appeared. Force India to double score at 3.75 was
one possibility (Perez starts 7th and Hulkenberg 11th).
So, two bets (both
Ladbrokes):
Kvyat, not to be
classified, 2.75
Force India, double
score 3.75
Morris Dancer
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