Saudi Arabia: pre-race 2023

 

Aided by blind luck, what I thought was a great each way bet for a strong 2^nd ended up paying off nicely. And the grid is intriguingly poised for the race.

Logan Sargeant set a great time in Q1 that was good enough for him to reach Q2. Until it was scrapped for exceeding track limits, after which he was never able to get his head together and ended up dead last. Both AlphaTauris exited at this stage, as did Albon’s Williams and Norris’ McLaren, which was unable to be mended in the pits to enable another hot lap.

And this was not the end of the reliability woe. Verstappen, seeming destined for pole, was failed by his car (drive shaft, apparently) and qualified a mere 15^th. Q2 saw the less shocking departures of the Alfa Romeos and both Haas drivers (NB Hulkenberg had the pace but a quick lap was eliminated and a late second run was just not quite there. Perhaps one for points).

Into Q3 it looked, to me, like a Perez-Alonso fight, possibly with Leclerc up there on time (but facing a 10s grid penalty).

Perez put in a fantastic first lap that was about half a second better than the rest, and while Leclerc improved on his second lap to get within a tenth it was the Mexican who claimed pole (for the second year running at this circuit).

Alonso was four-tenths off the ultimate pace, but qualifying has never been quite his strength and he must really fancy his chances of not merely standing on the podium again but taking the win. Russell was next, a tasty four-tenths ahead of his team mate.

Sainz looked pretty poor all qualifying and was clearly outclassed on this occasion by his team mate, but will start 4^th, with Russell on the second row.

The third row will be led by Stroll, who is still not 100% but is performing well, and Ocon. We’ll see if the Frenchman can avoid the comedy of errors he had last time out. Hamilton and Piastri comprise row four, with Gasly and Hulkenberg on row five.

Verstappen still has a credible chance of winning the race. But it will be a bit trickier than he would have imagined.

Reminder: Leclerc starts 12^th due to his 10 place grid penalty.

Early betting thoughts:

Alonso, win

Stroll, podium

Hulkenberg, points

Few classified finishers

The Aston Martin was almost half a second off Perez in qualifying, but this is partly because the Mexican put in a stonking lap at a circuit that suits him (he got his first pole here last year), and partly because Alonso’s weakness, if he has one, is qualifying. In race trim, I fully expect things to be much closer. On pace, I’d say the average result would be Perez winning but he may have reliability problems (not only did Verstappen get nobbled by that in qualifying, last race there was another concern for the Red Bull driver that did not have such a dramatic impact). Alonso is 5.5 for the win with Ladbrokes, (boosted will make that 5.75), each way, while 8.2 is available on Betfair for the straight win. That’s a bit longer than I was expecting. Something to think about.

Stroll isn’t entirely recovered but he’s driving well and was within a tenth of both the Mercedes of Russell and Ferrari of Sainz. Decent shot of rising to the podium, downside being Alonso will likely have strategic preference given he starts 2^nd. He’s 7 for a podium, which also seems a bit longer than I thought it might be (must be more bullish than the market when it comes to Aston Martin).

Hulkenberg was fast in qualifying but a white line error saw him fail to make Q3. He does start 10^th but with Leclerc and Verstappen behind him on the grid. Last race a promising qualifying turned into a poor result (think there was early contact). 3.5 is available for points.

Between reliability concerns and, even with track changes, plenty of close walls there’s every chance of some DNFs. However, Under 15.5 finishers classified is just 2.15 which feels a bit tight.

Perusing the markets, I saw that Sainz had a lay value of 1.5 to be top 6.

He starts 4^th, but all through qualifying looked out of sorts and was never in contention for pole (even with a relatively good lap, Leclerc was half a second faster). I do think the Spaniard is generally underrated but his qualifying times were unimpressive to a notable degree.

So, the Alonso, Sainz, and Stroll bets seem most appealing to me. For all three, the performance of Verstappen and Leclerc are relevant factors. There’s a long run to the first corner so a botched start will be even more costly than usual, and a great one more advantageous.

Part of me is quite tempted to just stick with my Perez win bet at 7, hedged (see below).

As an aside, I’ve laid Perez for the win on Betfair at 2.47. That’s a tiny green if he fails to be top 2, and roughly equally green (comes to two stakesish) if he’s 1^st or 2^nd. (Having previously tipped him to win at 7). NB: this has fallen to a lay of 2.22 this morning (I write half the pre-race tosh immediately after qualifying).

Perhaps a shade cowardly, but I’m going to stick with the Perez bet, which is now guaranteed to be green (albeit to a tiny extent if he isn’t top 2).So the tip is to hedge it and just finish ahead.

Got woken at 4am with some neck/shoulder pain so I may not be in the mood for writing up the post-race ramble. We’ll see. Let’s hope the race is good, and Perez is in the top 2.

Morris Dancer