Bahrain: pre-race 2023

Ahead of qualifying I’d been relatively optimistic on Alonso and Aston Martin’s prospects. As it happened, he was close but did make small errors in a tight contest that saw him qualify 5^th. Hopes for a good race remain, however.

It was a Q1 session to forget for Pierre Gasly, who had his time eliminated for track limit violation and starts last. Logan Sargeant, Williams’ new driver, was eliminated but only because his identical time with Norris was set second. Magnussen, Piastri, and De Vries all exited too.

Q2 was highly competitive and saw Lando Norris the fastest of the eliminated drivers, ahead of Bottas and Zhou Guanyu, with Tsunoda and Albon also exiting the stage. So far, Red Bull had looked quickest but with Ferrari, Alonso, and Mercedes also in the hunt.

Come Q1, Verstappen did what Verstappen does and ended up with yet another pole, around a tenth up on his team mate to make it a Red Bull front row.

Row two is Ferrari-land, with Leclerc the faster driver. Worryingly for him, he didn’t do a second run, apparently due to a technical problem with his car (which had some bodywork fall off in Q1).

Alonso could only manage 5^th but 4^th was probably the only credible improvement. His lap did have small errors but he’s never been a qualifying specialist. A podium remains very much within reach. He’s joined on the third row by Russell, who was four-thousandths slower, but a huge four-hundredths ahead of his team mate.

Row four has Hamilton leading (by half a second) Stroll, making this a rather less balanced row than the preceding three.

Ocon, meanwhile, starts 9^th, and Hulkenberg enjoys a strong return with a finish in 10^th (time eliminated for track limits).

So, it’s all rather nicely set up.

Note: It turns out Leclerc did not have car trouble in Q3. He deliberately only did one run to save a set of soft tyres for the start of the race to try and get ahead, necessitating an earlier stop than others may have to make. We shall see if this comes off.

Funnily enough, the weather forecast is for it to be dry and there do not appear to be any grid penalties.

Initial betting thoughts:

Alonso, podium

Perez, win each way

Russell, podium

Hulkenberg points

Leclerc, lead lap 1

Alonso is 2.25 for a podium (NB I did tip this at 3.8 so hedging is possible but at a slightly rough 2.9). This is a little shorter than I’d like as a bet now because, while I think his long run pace and tyre wear should be very good, it’s likely the Red Bulls will tie up two spots and the Ferraris appear to be running contrary strategies. I’m less concerned by the Mercedes despite how close they are to Alonso on pace in qualifying because that’s never been his strong point and he could’ve been a little faster.

It’s worth remembering Perez had a very strong season last year and is no mean driver. He’s 7 to win, with a third the odds each way, and was just a tenth and a half off his team mate in qualifying (the same margin ahead of Leclerc, although on first runs the Monegasque was ahead of the Mexican). The each way bet is worthy of consideration.

Russell is 4 for a podium. He’s very consistent and quick, and was more impressive, I think, than Hamilton last season. But it’s very tight at the top end this time (it seems). Although there’s always a chance the Ferraris will remove themselves from contention through cunning strategy. Probably not something I’ll back.

Hulkenberg starts ‘only’ 10^th on his full return to F1 and would’ve been higher but for a track limit violation. The midfield is hyper-competitive and he’s only 2.25 for points which is too short for me.

As mentioned above, Ferrari have a cunning plan. Slap on fresh red tyres to Leclerc and have him storm off the start line. And make an earlier pit stop, possibly making an extra stop compared to everyone else... but we’ve seen elsewhere that more stops can be quicker (I think Button visited the pits six times on his way to the win in the 2011 Canadian Grand Prix). He’s 9 on Betfair to lead lap 1.

Of those, I probably like the Perez bet the most, but, in accordance with the principles established by Thucydides, I then perused the markets entirely and here’s what caught my eye:

Red Bull 1-2 finish, 2.75

Sainz, podium, 3.5

Albon, points, 4.5

Albon, win group 2, 4.5

Sainz, win group 3, 3

As mentioned above, I think there’s a solid chance of Verstappen driving off to victory number umpteen and Perez being a strong 2^nd with a chance for an upset if woe befalls his team mate. 2.75 for them finishing together in the top 2 is well worth a look.

Sainz often gets forgotten a bit despite being a very good driver. He’s also sharper tactically and more willing to push back against ‘innovative’ strategic calls from the team. I still reckon Alonso’s the likeliest to end up on the podium but 3.5 for Sainz (who was two-tenths faster than his fellow Spaniard in qualifying) is not bad.

Albon starts 15^th but only because a technical problem stopped him putting in a proper lap time in Q2. He’d looked impressive before that, and with such a tight midfield points are possible. But the better bet might be winning group 2 (including Gasly, Tsunoda, and Magnussen). The first and last start behind him, and Tsunoda is one place ahead only because Albon could not set a time. If he finishes, this is looking like value to me.

Another group bet to contemplate is Sainz, at 3, winning group 3 (Russell, Hamilton, Stroll). He was two-tenths ahead of the Mercedes in qualifying and seven-tenths up on a wounded Stroll.

So, a slightly unusual problem of having perhaps too many appealing bets. Perez to win each way at 7, Albon to win group 2 at 4.5, and Sainz to win group 3 at 3.

I’ve decided to back both group bets at 4.6 for Albon and 3.1 for Sainz (boosted). The Albon bet in particular looks good. While I think the Perez bet would be sound the value is less than for the other two.

Unsure if I’ll be writing up a post-race analysis for race weekends this year.

Morris Dancer