Results and EPL, Serie A, Ligue 1 Thoughts on 29 August

Quick rundown on the results of previous tips, assuming £10 stakes per time: 

EPL*: 2 tips, both losses = -£20

Serie A: 1 tip, one loss = -£10

La Liga**: 4 tips, two losses, one win = +£7

Ligue 1: 2 tips, two wins = +£42.2

Bundesliga: 2 tips, one loss, one win = -£4.6

Total = +£14.6

*Most bets, right or wrong, are ‘normal’ but I did make an error betting against Manchester United. Think they’ve turned a corner now.

**One tip is outstanding at the time of writing, to be played tonight. (Update: this failed, so it's +£4.6).

 

So, not fantastic. But could be worse.

EPL

Note I’m only looking at bets up to 1 September inclusive.

I was on the fence about this but decided to back Southampton (at home) at 6 to beat Chelsea. They only conceded a single goal from an improved Manchester United, beat Leicester away, and held Leeds at home. Away this year, Chelsea have narrowly beaten a poor Everton side and got walloped by Leeds. With home advantage, I think 6 is a bit long for Southampton.

Update: Decided to back Leeds at 2.2 versus Everton. Leeds have been playing well this season. Everton have not been doing great. Plus home advantage.

 

Serie A

Also just the one bet here, backing Salernitana away to beat Bologna at 4.4. They’ve conceded just one goal so far, and that against Roma, while Bologna only drew at home versus Verona (not a great side). Salernitana have had a slow start but scored four times last match so I’m hoping they keep this up.

 

La Liga

Because there are a couple of matches tonight I’ll offer La Liga thoughts later on.


Ligue 1

More bets here than I’d anticipated. Four, in fact.

I backed a draw at 5.7 between Monaco and Troyes. Monaco have scored a single goal at 75% of their matches, only scoring twice away versus Strasbourg. Troyes have scored just a little more, and conceded more. At home, Monaco have lost and drawn once each so far.

Backed Nantes away to beat Strasbourg at 4.4. Strasbourg have yet to win a match, and both their draws were against fellow relegation zone teams Nice and Reims.

With Ladbrokes and boost, went for Auxerre away to beat Lyon at 12. Last time out, Lyon managed to draw (away) with Reims, and their home wins were against Troyes and Ajaccio, both with records of losing three of four matches to date. Auxerre had a narrow win against another low team, Strasbourg, but the match before that was a better away win versus Montpellier. Auxerre perhaps should be longer odds than Lyon but the 12 is hefty. 

Also with Ladbrokes and boost, went for Brest away to beat Rennes at 7. They’re highly similar in the table with Brest’s worse goal difference due to a thumping from Montpellier last time (akin to Liverpool’s recent mauling of Bournemouth). Brest have won away against Angers (not a great side) but also narrowly lost 3-2 away to Lens, who are rather good.


Bundesliga

As with La Liga, I’ll offer Bundesliga thoughts a little later.

 

Anyway, still early days for trying this betting on football business. Until Ligue 1 there wasn’t much catching my eye at all (iffy on Southampton) so we’ll see how things go.

 

Morris Dancer

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