Belgium: pre-race 2022

It was mildly surprising that Magnussen failed to escape Q1 due to a scruffy lap but the other departures, Bottas, Tsunoda, Latifi, and Vettel were no real shock. Bottas, as with many others, had a penalty and didn’t put in a final flying lap. 

Every Q2 elimination was from a different team, with better performing drivers including Gasly, Zhou, Stroll, and Schumacher, whilst the 11^th fastest chap was Ricciardo. Worth noting Albon was swift throughout and made the final session for the first time this year.

The tangled mess of qualifying penalties meant that there would be much rejigging, but on form it seemed Verstappen would be fastest with an actual pole duel fairly closely contested by Sainz and Perez. The Mercedes, meanwhile, seemed quite some way off the pace.

Verstappen was duly fastest, but it’s Sainz who will start on pole, qualifying two-tenths ahead of Perez. Leclerc and Ocon were next on the time sheet but actually next on the grid will be Alonso and Hamilton. Behind we have Russell and Albon, and then Norris (unsure if he had a problem but a bit surprised he was slower than Albon extra bit: turns out Norris has a penalty too).

I don’t normally run down the grid but given how mixed up this one is here’s how it stands:

Row 1: Sainz and Perez

Row 2: Alonso and Hamilton

Row 3: Russell and Albon

Row 4: Ricciardo and Gasly

Row 5: Stroll and Vettel

Row 6: Latifi and Magnussen

Row 7: Tsunoda and Bottas

Row 8: Verstappen and Leclerc

Row 9: Ocon and Norris

Row 10: Zhou Guanyu and Schumacher

 

The race is expected to be dry. But forecasts have been wrong before.

 

Early betting thoughts:

Verstappen win/podium
Leclerc podium
Sainz win
Norris points
Albon points
Alonso lead lap 1

Verstappen starts 15^th but looked fastest of all in qualifying and by quite some margin. The reason the world and his mother have taken penalties here is precisely because overtaking is eminently possible. But his odds of 2.5 remain astonishing for a man who starts with only a quarter of the grid behind him and the rest ahead. Every chance the first corner could see a major shunt and, if so, he’ll likely be caught up in it. For a podium, the odds are 1.36, which is just as mind-boggling for a chap starting that far back. 

Leclerc is 2.6 for a podium, and he starts 16^th. This is less value because Sainz is very competitive versus his team mate which makes things trickier, and he also has the possible problems of a lap 1 incident as Verstappen does, plus strategy from Ferrari (although maybe that could remove Sainz from the equation). 

Speaking of the Spaniard, he starts on pole and is 3 for the win. A problem is that the first straight comes swiftly and can present a golden opportunity for overtaking which either Perez or Alonso could take advantage of (could be wrong but I think the Mercedes is a little more down on power on straights, though Hamilton might be there too). Probably about the odds he deserves. Generally looked faster than Perez in qualifying, though race pace has usually tilted things Red Bull’s way.

Norris starts 18^th, but on pace he reached the top 10 and was looking pretty good. Challenging but not impossible for him to get into the points. Odds of 1.33 are a bit stingy. 

Albon does start well in the points, (6^th) and got into the top 10 on merit. Can he stay there? Odds of 2.25 are ok but appeal more than Norris’. 

The Alonso to lead lap 1 bet is based on his usually dramatic and excellent first laps and the overtaking potential presented by the straight. Obviously Perez and perhaps Hamilton could feature here too. Alonso’s odds are 9… which is worth considering. For completeness, Sainz is 1.67, Perez 2.6, and anyone else is 17.

 That was a bucketload of potential bets and not too much worth a second look, except the Alonso lead lap 1 bet. As is traditional, I then browsed all the markets for value.

BOT ahead of ZHO, VET ahead of STR, GAS ahead of TSU, MAG ahead of SCH, 5

Sainz beat Leclerc, 1.44

The first bet is a Ladbrokes special I copied and pasted because of how many contingencies there were. However, this seems based on qualifying and not the grid and only one of the pairings is reversed on the grid (Vettel is one place behind Stroll). Otherwise, the other drivers, green for the bet, are ahead, sometimes by a long way. DNFs can play a role, of course, but that’s surprisingly generous overall. Although the four separate contingencies (and any one failing makes it red) is a bit rough.

Sainz starts 15 places ahead of Leclerc. Yes, an accident is possible. But if not, he really should win, and handily. I dislike short odds bets but that’s pretty tempting.

 

So, a long odds bet on Alonso for the first lap, a short odds probably safety first bet on Sainz, or a multi-contingency bet that’s tempting and could go either way. The problem with the Sainz bet is a DNF is a real possibility, probably a one in three of four shot (though if Leclerc gets that first it’s green right away, of course). 

Unusual for me but I went for Sainz at 1.44. He starts 15 places ahead, so not beating Leclerc would be monstrously unlucky.

The race start is 2pm UK time

 

Morris Dancer