23 August Thoughts on the EPL, La Liga, and Serie A

As threatened, here’s another football blog (normal F1 service will resume during the weekend itself). Not sure if I’ll do these again, but we’ll see.

 

EPL

Had an extremely lucky recent set of results and overall this is far and away my greenest league, so I’m overdue some misfortune.

As before, bets are with Smarkets unless noted otherwise.

I weighed this up a bit before eventually backing Southampton at 4.5 to beat Manchester United. Southampton are at home. To date their results are an away win over Leicester, drawing at home versus Leeds (in light of the Chelsea result this looks more impressive), and getting thrashed away at Spurs. Manchester United surprised most by beating Liverpool at Old Trafford, but before this get a thumping at Brentford, and lost at home to Brighton. Southampton are just above them in the table and have a slightly better goal difference due to scoring more. Home advantage may help them out, the major question is whether Manchester United had a flash in the pan or have started a resurgence. We shall see.

I also backed Aston Villa at 2.28 to beat West Ham (the Hammers being away). West Ham are the only side to lose every match so far. They’ve scored no goals and conceded 5. Villa have two losses and a win, the win coming in their only home match to date. Odds a little shorter perhaps than I would like.

 

Serie A

I’m slightly down so far on Serie A so far. Not Bundesliga bad, but in the red.

Just the one bet: Spezia at home to beat Sassuolo at 3.1. So far, Spezia have lost to Inter Milan away and beat Empoli at home, while Sassuolo have lost to Juventus away and beaten Lecce (bottom of the league) at home. Could go either way but 3.1 feels a little long.

 

La Liga

While still some way off the EPL, La Liga is my second best league so far, greener than Ligue 1.

At 2.96, I’ve backed Girona to win at home versus Celta Vigo. Their opposition have lost to Real Madrid and drawn at home with Espanyol, while Girona have beaten bottom of the league Getafe and narrowly lost to Valencia away. They’ve both scored thrice but Girona have conceded 2 goals to Celta Vigo’s 6.

Little unsure, but backed 4.3 for Elche to win at home against Real Sociedad. Elche have lost away to Real Betis and drawn against Almeria at home, while Real Sociedad lost at home to Barcelona and narrowly beat Cadiz away. Real Sociedad are the favourites for this but 4.3 for a home match against a middling rather than top team feels a little long.

I’ve also gone Almeria to win at home versus Sevilla at 3.7. The latter could only manage a home draw against Real Valladolid and lost away to Osasuna, while Almeria drew away to Elche and narrowly lost at home (1-2) to Real Madrid. In the table they’re neck-and-neck on points and goal difference, so 3.7 for a home win on that basis seems worth backing to me.

Lastly, and with Ladbrokes at 4.5 (with boost), I’ve gone for Valencia to beat Atletico Madrid at 4.5, once more at home. Valencia have lost away to Athletic Bilbao and won at home versus Girona. Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, have lost at home to Villareal and won away at bottom of the league Getafe. They’re both on the same number of points with Madrid ahead on goal difference. While they might be favourites, I do think 4.5 is too long.

 

As an aside, I do make away and, occasionally, draw bets, it’s just a coincidence these are all on the home side. 

Anyway, we shall see how these go. I’m not expecting the monumental luck of last weekend to continue but hopefully they’ll be green overall.

 

Morris Dancer

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