22 August Thoughts on the Bundesliga and Ligue 1

Hey, kids.

For reasons that are strange and mysterious I decided to have another crack at football betting this season, with tiny stakes, looking at the EPL, Serie A, La Liga, Ligue 1, and the Bundesliga.

I won’t bore you with all the numbers but overall so far I’m ahead, with some good EPL results, the statistically improbable feat of getting every single Bundesliga bet wrong, and a fairly mixed bag with Serie A, La Liga, and Ligue 1 (at the time of writing, I’m moderately ahead across those three).

So don’t take these betting thoughts with a pinch so much as a boulder of salt.

I did have the very lucky outcome of getting all three of Sunday’s EPL matches right, 6 on Leeds winning, 3.3 on Brighton’s away triumph, and 5.5 on the Newcastle/Man City draw. I’ll be surprised Manchester United beat Liverpool today but did back it with a free bet at 5 (unsure if this gets voided or the bet stands with a postponed match if it gets delayed due to fan protests).

Mostly I’m betting on Smarkets, and using some free bets on Ladbrokes. As I said before, tiny stakes.

 

Bundesliga

Bearing in mind my atrocious Bundesliga record (100% loss to date), I’ve used a pair of free bets to back Wolfsburg away at RB Leipzig at 7, and Borussia Mönchengladbach away at Bayern Munich at 11. Both are unlikely to come off but I think the odds are long enough to make them worth a shot with a free bet.

Neither Wolfsburg nor RB Leipzig have won a match yet, both preferring to lose or draw. Borussia Mönchengladbach are second in the table right now (to Bayern Munich, of course). The champions are highly likely to win but everyone has off days and, with a free bet, 11 was too long not to tempt. While Bayern Munich has a great scoring record every team they’ve played so far has been in the bottom half.

I’ve also backed Mainz at 2.9 to beat Bayer Leverkusen. Mainz have won twice and drawn once, Leverkusen have lost all three of their opening matches and have scored once to Mainz’s four goals. In addition, I’ve backed Freiburg (also at home) to beat Bochum at 1.54. Short odds, but Bochum have also lost every match to date, already have a -9 goal difference, and Freiburg have won twice and lost once (to Borussia Dortmund).

 

Ligue 1

My overall Ligue 1 results are modestly green at the moment, so neither great nor awful.

I think Lens to win at home against Rennes at 2.52 is worth backing. They just had a nice away win at Monaco (4.6, result was 1-4) and that’s put them second in the table. Rennes are mid-table with one win, draw, and loss but scoring less than half as many goals as Lens. The away side do look fairly solid but they’re not scoring enough.

Auxerre at 3.7 at home to beat Strasbourg is my other Ligue 1 bet for the forthcoming weekend. They’re actually the higher team in the table right now, (Auxerre has one win/draw/loss apiece, while Strasbourg has drawn twice and lost once).

 

Some Serie A, La Liga, and EPL bets may be coming tomorrow.

 

I’m probably not going to write these bets up every occasion (depends on time/inclination) and it may well be the kiss of death for winnings, but thought it’d be interesting to post at least once or twice.

 

Morris Dancer

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