Spain: pre-race 2022


While the Mercedes does seem to have narrowed the gap to the frontrunners, it remains a step behind.

First practice in qualifying saw us say goodbye to both Williams, Stroll, and world champions Alonso and Vettel. Both the Alpine and Aston Martin (despite upgrades and accusations of copying) are not exactly setting Barcelona alight.

Track limits are being enforced more strictly this year and Norris had his Q2 time deleted, which put him out as the fastest eliminated driver (had he not been stripped of his time, Norris would’ve put out Ricciardo). Ocon, both AlphaTauris, and Zhou Guanyu also failed to progress.

In Q3 it was strange, as Leclerc, who had looked fastest, spun on his first lap (somewhat compromising Russell too). Verstappen looked nailed on for pole, but a seeming lack of power on his second run enabled Leclerc to put in a stonking lap to snatch it back. Sainz slotted his Ferrari into 3rd, and he’s joined on the second row by George Russell. Perez and Hamilton are row three, with the Nordic duo of Bottas and Magnussen behind them and Ricciardo and Schumacher rounding out the top 10.

Excitingly, when I first tried checking Betfair and Ladbrokes this morning neither could be reached (rest of the internet was fine). If that persists then instead of a tip I’ll just offer a prediction for the race. (I did contact Ladbrokes and tried clearing my cookies as suggested but no luck). Edited extra bit: Weird safety (tedious) setting somehow got switched on, but now seems happily remedied.

 

Early betting thoughts:

Verstappen, win
Russell, podium
Norris, points

Overtaking is very hard (I recall well Raikkonen failing to pass Verstappen, over 40 laps or so, in 2016) but Verstappen does seem to have a faster car which means both off the line and via strategy could be ways to do it. If he gets in the lead I think he’ll pull away. Worth noting starting on pole is a very good predictor of winning here, though. Weirdly, Verstappen is the favourite at 2.1 (Betfair) despite starting 2nd, when the pole sitter has a roughly 75% chance of winning, on past record. This indicates bettors/bookies are thinking much as I was. Leclerc is 2.5, which makes me wonder if he might be value. Strange odds for the chap on pole.

Russell’s been the faster Mercedes all weekends long and Sainz has had an unfortunate combination of ill luck and occasional misjudgement. Russell could also fluke his way onto the podium if he holds station and Verstappen’s car explodes. He’s 2.5 for a podium.

Norris has the pace to be several places higher. Although overtaking isn’t easy. 1.67 is a bit short. Likely to come off but I’m not a fan of odds below evens.

And so to perusing the markets (Ladbrokes in fractions now due to cookie deletion so I’ll have to remedy that).

Russell, win group 1 (Sainz, Perez, Hamilton), 3.75
First lap leader Ver 3.85, Lec win race 2.72 (Betfair)

Russell starts ahead of Perez and Hamilton, and behind Sainz. However, Sainz has had an unlucky mix of bad fortune and occasional poor judgement, whereas Russell has been impressive all year. It’s hard to overtake but if he can, Russell can hold it, and he may also benefit by (all else being equal) being lead Mercedes whereas Sainz is the second Ferrari and the Prancing Horse has to prioritise the chap with the best chance of victory. I’ve backed this at 3.8 (with boost).

There’s an intriguing and counter-intuitive set of odds on Betfair. With Verstappen being favourite for the win I thought he’d be short to lead lap 1 (Spain being notoriously hard for overtaking). He is not. He’s 3.85 to lead the first lap, yet Leclerc is 2.72 to win the race. This is not a perfect pair of bets to set up as both can fail (of course, both could theoretically come off too) but they are quite well opposed to one another. Passing on-track seems very hard which means it’s the line or a pit stop. But Ferrari could use Sainz as a scarlet roadblock. The Red Bull race pace is better so if Verstappen nabs Leclerc off the line I think he’ll win handily. But if he doesn’t, it could prove trickier than the odds imply. In fact, it might just make the Leclerc odds for the win tempting by themselves.

While intrigued by the Ver-Lec situation, I’ve decided to just back Russell to win his group at 3.8. That’s not bad to make up a place, though passing is difficult.

 

Anyway, that’s my tip for the race. Given it starts at 2pm I should have time for a post-race ramble.

Morris Dancer

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