Russia: post-race analysis 2021

Russia sometimes produces boring races. This was not such a race; it was exciting from start to finish..

Before the start, Mercedes tried tactical shenanigans by giving Bottas a new power unit, earning him a grid penalty.

Off the line, two men had weird starts: Sainz and Ricciardo. Sainz left the handbrake on and looked swamped but then benefited from the slipstream of Norris to claim the lead. Ricciardo’s getaway was good but he ended up hemmed in and, along with Hamilton, fell down to around the 7th or 8th mark.

Sainz and Norris were close together but pulled away from Russell, who led a DRS train involving Stroll, Ricciardo, and Hamilton. Further down the field, Verstappen passed Bottas with seemingly little effort.

At the sharp end, Stroll and Russell boxed, then Sainz did. The McLarens and Hamilton stayed out longer (but not as long as Perez and Alonso who waited until there were only 18 laps or so left). Ricciardo was screwed by a very bad pit stop (others had similar if less severe problems). This put the Aussie behind all those he’d been tussling with.

Norris and Hamilton boxed later and emerged in the same order, effectively leading the race (after Perez and Alonso pitted). Some of those early stoppers like Sainz were struggling, but the Ferrari managed to fend off Ricciardo (unlike Stroll and Russell), while Verstappen continued to make solid progress but couldn’t get past the Aussie.

Hamilton was within a second of Norris for lap after lap. Perez passed Ricciardo and was hunting for a podium.

And then the rain came.

Drizzle at first. It seemed not enough to matter. A few guys boxed for inters. The top two stayed out. But then the rain intensified. Hamilton went for inters. Norris stayed out. And that lost him the race.

Norris must’ve lost a minute or so, and it was rather sad to see as his racing performance was flawless, but his tyre decision was plain wrong. Whether to blame driver or team is a debate to be had, but the decision itself cost them a very well-deserved win.

Hamilton inherited the lead and his 100th win. It was a gift. Another beneficiary, oddly enough, was Verstappen, who ended up 2nd having started 20th, and making this very good damage limitation. Last on the podium was Sainz, whose car wasn’t quite up to the McLaren, Mercedes, or Red Bull, and who also suffered a slow stop, but whose strategy call was right and whose performance was good throughout.

My bet would’ve come off properly but for Ricciardo’s dreadful stop. Although I’ve had much bad luck this year, I also benefited massively from two very similar situations last time out so can’t complain too much. As it stands, the hedged aspect did come off, so the green/red situation depends on whether you hedged or not.

Ricciardo was 4th. Some good overtake, got close to passing Sainz on-track but couldn’t quite manage it. Let down by a slow pit stop, but that’s the way things go. Bottas had a really bad race, was down in 14th anonymous, then ended up 5th due to pitting with the earliest chaps onto the inters. Good choice, good result, not impressive.

Alonso ended up 6th which is roughly what he would’ve got without the rain. Solid drive. Norris well deserved the win and has to make do with a bitter 7th. He didn’t want inters but the team should’ve insisted. Raikkonen we barely saw and he got 8th, with Perez, who was far higher pre-rain, 9th and Russell in 10th.

The two Aston Martins were 11th and 12th and managed to collide in the latter (dry) stages for reasons that are strange and mysterious.

So, Hamilton got lucky for his 100th win, but the conditions that enabled it also allowed Verstappen to claim 2nd. Red Bull lose ground in both title races but Verstappen has a fresh engine and Hamilton may need to take one later. Pyrrhic victory for Mercedes?

The next race is Turkey, in a fortnight.

 

Morris Dancer

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