Netherlands: pre-race 2021

I miss the days when red flags were rare. We had two in qualifying this session, one of which was unnecessary. There were also a few interesting little results.

Q1 saw Vettel absolutely screwed by traffic which destroyed any hope of escaping. The Haas drivers were the prime but not sole culprits. Both also exited here, as did Kubica (understandable, he’s only had a morning with his Alfa Romeo) and Perez (seems to have been a timing issue, perhaps complacency). Bad news for Red Bull to allow that to happen.

Q2 saw Russell put his Williams into the barrier and bring out a red flag, which looked a shade excessive given he almost immediately drove back to the pits (albeit after littering the track with gravel). A more understandable red flag was when his team mate imitated him but did so with much more force, Latifi’s red flag ending the session. In addition, we said goodbye to Tsunoda, Stroll, and, weirdly, Norris. The Briton’s arguably been the best driver of the whole season to date but he was significantly behind Ricciardo and seemed altogether out of sorts.

Going into Q3 it seemed the pole was Verstappen’s to lose. Hamilton came back at him but the Dutchman fought off the Briton to claim the top spot by a mere three-hundredths. Row two is Bottas and the very impressive Pierre Gasly. The French fellow’s doing really rather well this year. The third row is a strictly Ferrari affair, Leclerc one-hundredth ahead of Sainz.

Giovinazzi may be driving for his seat next year, and qualifying 7^th certainly won’t harm his prospects. The Italian was three-tenths up on Ocon. And the final row is Alonso and Ricciardo.

Apparently, neither Haas driver has a penalty for clearly impeding Vettel. My gast is flabbered.

Weather should be dry and sunny throughout, so the race may actually feature some racing.

The circuit is thought to be very tough for overtaking, though tyre wear may come into things.

Early betting thoughts:
Gasly podium
Vettel points
Russell points
Low number of classified finishers

Gasly is 5.5 for a podium (6.2 Betfair). Perhaps a shade mean given the serious competition, and potential for varying strategies, he’ll face against Ferrari (who are in a similar strategic position versus the Frenchman as Mercedes are against Verstappen). Also requires one of the top three to either DNF or screw something up quite a bit.

Vettel is 3 for points, Russell 2.3 (2 and 2.82 on Betfair). My thinking on the German is that if there’s a first lap massive crash he may be far enough back to escape unscathed and may be able to run his own optimal strategy without having the midfield around him. Russell is based on him starting 11^th but also, therefore, having free tyre choice which could prove handy both off the line and in terms of a later pit stop. Although talented, the Briton does seem to have rotten luck, though.

There’s evens for under 16.5 classified finishers and 3.5 on under 15.5. The reasoning is pretty simple: we’ve seen about six red flags so far. The circuit has close barriers and gravel traps, and is pretty narrow, producing plenty of scope for cocking up and ending one’s race, and that of others. So far, this is the bet that appeals to me most.

In accordance with the principles established by Takeda Shingen, I then perused the markets.

Winner without big 4, Leclerc, 2.4
Not to be classified, Hamilton, 6
Not to be classified, Verstappen, 5
First lap leader, Hamilton, 4.6 (Betfair)

It does look like the Ferraris and Gasly will be fighting for best of the rest and it’s likely the Prancing Horse will favour Leclerc over Sainz, if it’s in their power to choose. That said, 2.4 is a bit on the stingy side.

Verstappen’s had a couple of DNFs, and with the track so tight and overtaking so tricky both he and Hamilton will know the importance of start and finishing the first lap in the lead. Very close wheel-to-wheel action is eminently possible, as is a screwup that takes one or both of them out (the market reflects this, Hamilton is normally 7 and Verstappen 6). However, it’s probably something that will happen on the first lap or not at all, so hard to gauge value (and, if this happens, whether other podium/winning bets that may come off in consequence are preferable).

Hamilton’s had pretty good starts this year so he may get the jump on Verstappen.

So, some bets that look ok but nothing stand out fantastic.

In the end, I plumped for the two low classified finisher bets, with two-thirds of a stake on under 16.5 and one-third of a stake on under 15.5.

Race starts at 2pm UK time.

 

Morris Dancer