Netherlands: post-race analysis

Well, the bet was red and the race was more tactical than frenetic, but there were varying strategies and some overtaking, so it (thankfully) wasn’t as boring as Monaco.

Off the line, the top six held formation, Bottas doing well to retain his place after leaving the handbrake on.

The mode was set, with the top three pulling away from the midfield and the top two pulling away from Bottas.

Further back, Alonso had snuck ahead of various chaps, including his team mate, by taking the high line at the third (I think) corner. This prompted Ocon to claim he was faster, asking to be let by, but the Spaniard pulled out a six second gap which rather suggested he was quicker.

Verstappen built up a gap of a few seconds over Hamilton, and when the Briton pitted first the Dutchman copied. A slightly tardy stop by Hamilton’s pit crew meant Verstappen held his place. Bottas was then used as a glorified roadblock, and this cut down the interval between Verstappen and Hamilton to less than a second before the Dutchman passed the Finn (who was duly pitted). However, Hamilton still couldn’t  make an impact on his title rival, though he could more or less match his times.

At this stage they were on identical strategies, soft to medium. But when Bottas had pitted, it was only a few laps later that both frontrunners came in for pit stops, Hamilton to try for the undercut and (a lap or so later) Verstappen to try and avoid being stuck behind Bottas. However, Hamilton encountered traffic that wiped out any advantage he might otherwise have acquired by the strategy. He was on the medium whereas Verstappen went hard, and, ultimately, it was a smooth victory for the Dutchman. Hamilton pitted late (Bottas likewise) to get the fastest lap point. Bottas had previously had that, despite being told not to by the team that’s almost certainly let him go.

And with that, Verstappen reclaims his title lead, by a very slender margin. It was a duel today, with Bottas a strategic tool (but not one that proved effective). Everybody else got lapped.

Gasly kept his magnificent 4th, another very good performance from one of the drivers of the year. Very handy for AlphaTauri with the midfield being so competitive (his team mate had to retire the car with a reliability failure, likewise Mazepin, the only DNFs in the race).

Leclerc got 5th for Ferrari, but it was wily old Alonso who got the better of Sainz for 6th and 7th (the younger Spaniard was oddly slow so maybe it was a reliability problem). Perez got his way through the field to 8th with some tasty passing, including some contact (racing incident, certainly not his fault) with Norris. Ocon and Norris got the final points, the Briton once again outdoing his Aussie colleague (Ricciardo was 11th).

So, strategically interesting with some passing, but around 2s a lap was needed to pass, which isn’t ideal. But the tyre wear was very high. Given that, I’m surprised we didn’t have a single on-circuit retirement due to contact or driver error. Easily could’ve happened on the first lap, but did not.

Free air was very valuable due to overheating and loss of pace in traffic.

Verstappen 224.5
Hamilton 221.5
Bottas 123
Norris 114
Perez 108

Bottas takes best of the rest from Norris. Still a remarkable job the McLaren driver is doing. Verstappen has a 3 point lead, which is rather tight. Didn’t put a foot wrong this weekend and got the win despite his wingman being unable to lend a hand and Mercedes pulling the right sort of strategic shenanigans.

Mercedes 310.5
Red Bull 303.5
McLaren 169
Ferrari 165.5
Alpine 80
AlphaTauri 72
Aston Martin 53
Williams 20
Alfa Romeo 3
Haas 0

Great result for Ferrari, AlphaTauri, and ok for Alpine, with McLaren and Aston Martin losing out to their rivals. Vettel’s disqualification from 2nd in Hungary (I think it was) means they’re a long way off Alpine and AlphaTauri when they should be right there. Ultra-close between both the top two and McLaren/Ferrari for best of the rest.

The next race is just next weekend. We’re off to Monza, a super quick circuit and one I rather like.

 

Morris Dancer

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