Italy: pre-race 2021
For what it’s worth, which ain’t much, Hamilton and Bottas and Verstappen topped second practice, with two-tenths intervals. Perez was another two-tenths back, then came Ocon, Kubica, Giovinazzi, Alonso, Gasly, and Norris.
Surprised to see Alpine and Alfa Romeo there but such were the results.
Most drivers started the sprint on the medium but exceptions on softs were the McLarens, Alpines, and Aston Martins.
Unusually, off the line Bottas did well, Verstappen was a bit iffy but managed to cling onto his place, and Hamilton started poorly, slipping behind both McLarens (Ricciardo overtaking his team mate) and Gasly. The AlphaTauri driver was unlucky that minimal contact with Norris damaged his front wing, which broke, went under his car, and sent him crashing out on lap 1. The safety car emerged but the story of the race has largely been told. The top five retained their places, Bottas snagging 3 points, Verstappen 2, and Ricciardo 1.
Hamilton got very close to Norris but even with DRS could not pass. Verstappen will start on pole, alongside Ricciardo, with Norris and Hamilton behind them (Bottas, as noted, starts last due to changing engine parts). The start will be critical, and the McLarens are a threat to the title contenders. Passing was very tricky. Perez did get past Stroll but couldn’t overtake Giovinazzi.
The race should be dry throughout. Bottas’ penalty (back of the grid) has been mentioned a lot already, Gasly will likewise have a sub-optimal start due to the unlucky front wing crash.
Early betting thoughts:Double McLaren podium
Ricciardo/Norris podium
Ricciardo/Norris win, each way
Bottas/Gasly points
McLaren top score [if this market exists anymore]
McLaren are 4.5 for a double podium. On pace, they should probably be on for one car there, so a double header requires either good starts for them or bad for Verstappen, or one of the title contenders having some sort of problem. Not impossible but better value may be present elsewhere.
Norris is 2.1 for a podium and Ricciardo 2.3. Too short to tempt. Good drivers, good car, but in clean air the Mercedes and Red Bull are significantly faster, though the McLaren is capable of keeping the fast chaps at bay, as we saw during the sprint nonsense.
Norris is 9 to win and Ricciardo 11, with each way being third the odds top 2. This is more credible than may appear the case as they have two cars ahead of Hamilton and if everyone holds station off the line then they can very much play a tactical game with the rear gunner holding up Hamilton while the frontrunner goes for an undercut (and he’ll be around 4s or so ahead of Hamilton and have a clear air window sooner). Worth considering.
Bottas and Gasly start off in the city centre of Milan, but both have had strong pace this weekend. Passing’s a swine, though. Gasly is 2.5 for points, Bottas 1.33. The latter is off the table as he could easily get caught up in DNF woe. Gasly also not really long enough to tempt as his pace advantage may not be sufficient to make easy headway.
The top score market, as I feared, is no more (at Ladbrokes/Betfair, anyway). A shame, as it’s very interesting and McLaren would’ve been my pick.
In accordance with the guidance of Hashiba Hideyoshi, I then perused the markets to see if anything caught my eye.
Norris, first lap leader, 9.4 (Betfair)Leclerc/Sainz, 5.5/11, podium
Norris made a smart move on Hamilton off the line in the sprint race and will have a little slipstream possibility from Verstappen. He does start on the odd side, though, and that’s on the left, whereas the right is the optimal line (though further back) for the first corner.
Leclerc and Sainz start 5th and 6th and are 5.5 and 11 respectively for a podium finish. Their pace was pretty good, Leclerc only 3s or so behind Hamilton in the sprint. And Ricciardo leapt from 5th to 3rd in the sprint, possibly aided by ye olde slipstreamery and Hamilton not knowing where to defend because his start was so poor. I’d probably be more tempted by Leclerc as I have the impression he starts better (and is slightly ahead on the grid).
So, a few things I like the look of. McLaren to win each way, splitting a stake, is tempting, and I wonder about a Leclerc podium (although my concern there is that a solid start could be undone in the pit stops. But having two cars together on the grid does present tactical possibilities).
The agony of choice.
In the end, I decided to back each McLaren driver with half a stake to win each way (9.5 for Norris with boost, 12 for Ricciardo, third the odds top 2). Worth mentioning I have had atrocious insight/luck this year (in contrast with the wonderfully flukey 2020), so, as ever, do at your own risk.
NB: I had a £1 free bet which I stuck on a Leclerc podium, to decrease my annoyance if it happened.
Anyway, the race starts at 2pm.
Morris Dancer
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