Hungary: pre-race 2021

Seems we have red flags every qualifying session. But that wasn’t the most interesting part this time.

Schumacher had some misfortune as his car couldn’t be fixed, so he couldn’t set a time at all. Mazepin was slowest on track, with the Williams ahead of him (Russell being unusually helpless to drag his car into Q2). It wasn’t great for Tsunoda, who was the fastest eliminated driver, over a second behind Gasly on pace.

The red flag emerged in Q2 when Sainz introduced his Ferrari to the wall. He had been the fastest non-Mercedes/Red Bull driver in the first session, during which he impeded Tsunoda. So he’s 15th at best and likely to be slapped with a grid penalty that may well send him to the back row. Given how good the Ferrari has looked, this is a great blow, and not the first time the talented Spaniard has come a cropper in qualifying. Also eliminated by less than a tenth was Ricciardo, and Stroll, with both Alfa Romeos also knocked out at this stage.

Q2 was also notable for the Mercedes and Red Bulls attempting to qualify for the top 10 (and hence set their starting tyres) on medium rather than soft tyres, making a one rather than two stop possible. Verstappen was fast enough to get there but the team rather nervously had him set a faster time on the soft and locked both him and Perez into that strategy leaving only Hamilton and Bottas on the medium tyres.

On the first runs in Q3 Hamilton led his team mate ahead of Verstappen, and then sly shenanigans occurred. Mercedes sent him out ahead of Verstappen and Hamilton was so slow the Dutchman almost missed the line (and Perez did). Hamilton then trundled round a couple of second off the pace, his turbulence not exactly enhancing Verstappen’s aerodynamic grip.

This brand of deviousness reminds me of Michael Schumacher. I rather like it. Yes, it’s not exactly the epitome of gentlemanly conduct, but it isn’t dangerous, and it does gift them an advantage. However, with pole already pencilled in it’ll be interesting to see if this gets a rule clarified. One thing is for certain: it won’t have delighted Red Bull.

So, Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen, and Perez are at the sharp end, but with the Mercedes on the medium which may give them one fewer pit stop. Looking a bit iffy for Red Bull, though the soft may enable them to start better.

Gasly qualified superbly well, and with Norris beside him on the third row it’s very much the best of the rest this season.

Leclerc was perhaps unexpectedly further back in 7th, alongside Ocon, with Alonso and Vettel comprising the fifth row (making this a strong Alpine performance as the only team outside the big two with both drivers in Q3).

NB slightly surprisingly, it looks like Sainz is starting 15th. Although a penalty could come in later (this has happened before when I’ve bet on stuff).

Weather looks hot but with no rain.

Here are my initial betting thoughts:
Bottas win each way
Sainz points
Ricciardo points
Big win margin
Ham/Ver not classified

Bottas is 8.5 for the win. A third the odds each way is available and that may be worth a look. If the strategy is as harmful to Red Bull as anticipated and passing is hard (it is) then this could be very good for the Finn provided he has a clean getaway off the line. 

Sainz is 1.44 for points. Not long enough to tempt given how competitive the midfield is and how difficult passing can be. Ricciardo, by contrast is 1.61 for the same market and he starts 11th. Not sure I’ll back either but the Aussie looks more appealing with both longer odds and a superior grid position.

In the last few races two have had leader to 2nd gaps of 17s, one of 8.7s, and another one just under a second. An 11s or more gap is 2.1, which may be value. But there’s a risk Hamilton could have that in hand over Verstappen and ease off to reduce wear on his components.

Hamilton is 7.5 to not be classified, Verstappen 6. The proposition is based on them being close off the line and tangling to the detriment of one or both. There is a long run to turn 1 but the nature of the circuit makes it difficult to follow so thereafter it should be challenging for whoever’s behind. Hard to say if this is value or not. But if they did take one another out this would be beneficial for the Bottas win bet.

In accordance with the principles established by the theodicy of Saint Irenaeus I then perused the markets to see if anything leapt out at me.

And nothing did. And with the Bottas bet already appealing that settles things.

I’ve backed Bottas each way at 8.5 (9 with boost), third the odds top two, to win the race. 

Race starts at 2pm.

Morris Dancer

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