Belgium: pre-race 2021

As predicted, qualifying was wet. Rather wetter than anticipated, which led to a 12 minute or so delay at the start. 

Come Q1 everyone went out on wets, apart from the Williams that opted for inters. But would it prove brave and smart or foolish? The former, with the two drivers seconds faster than the wet chaps and prompting the whole grid to do likewise. Both Williams duly escaped this session, although the Haas and Alfa Romeo drivers, and Tsunoda, left at this stage. Norris was the fastest driver.

Q2 saw the track dry a little for inters more comfortably, but it was still raining and a mile away from slicks. A failure to go out on new inters initially meant the Mercedes ended up burning through two more sets which may have implications if the race is wet (eminently possible). Despite a late run on new inters, Hamilton was only second fastest, behind Norris, who was looking a real contender for pole. Slightly surprisingly, both Ferraris failed to progress, as did Latifi, Alonso, and Stroll.

Come Q3, the rainfall intensified. Vettel said it should be red flagged. A few corner into his fast lap, Norris binned it into Eau Rouge, completely wrecking his McLaren and red flagging the session. I actually stopped watching because the rain was falling more heavily than ever and I prefer to watch F1 than endless replays and commentator waffle.

I listened to the end of Q3 on the radio and found the coverage pretty good. Better yet was Russell’s astounding performance, almost claiming a shock pole and still achieving a fantastic front row start, behind only Verstappen.

In the end, despite Norris crashing out, Hamilton had to settle for 3^rd, ahead of Ricciardo, who had a great qualifying result having barely escaped Q2. Row three is Vettel and Gasly, with Perez and Bottas behind them (and the Finn has a 5 place grid penalty). Ocon and Norris (notionally) are the fifth row, but the Briton seems destined for a pit lane start.

 

Note that Bottas and Stroll have 5 place grid penalties for causing collisions last time out. At the time of writing, to the best of my knowledge, Norris is set for a start of 14^th for a gearbox change but, surprisingly, not a pit lane start.

The weather forecast is for light rain.

 

Early betting thoughts are:

Low number of classified finishers

Ricciardo/Vettel podium

Norris top 6

There’s evens for under 16.5 finishers and 3.5 for under 15.5 at Ladbrokes. To be honest, I like the look of both. Not spectacular, but may be value. Problem is if the rain’s very light or dries up entirely the value lessens substantially.

The Ricciardo/Vettel podium idea was sparked by the possibility of heavy rain. With that seemingly off the table this probably won’t be something I back, but the odds are 4 and 6 respectively. In drier conditions it may be tricky for them (although we’ve seen Bottas particularly struggle from traffic problems and Perez too).

Norris is 2.5 to be top 6. Unsure whether this is value. He was very, very good in the wet (until the crash, of course) but starts down in 14^th. May be worth a shot.

 

In accordance with the principles established by Oda Nobunaga I then consulted the markets generally to see if any value appeared. Not much did, but here are a couple of things I mused:

Hamilton, not to be classified, 7

Perez, win each way, 13

Hamilton rarely fails to finish, but he has made some mistakes this year. He also starts in 3^rd, which means if there’s a first lap blunder by someone behind (or himself) he’s much likelier to get shunted. Ricciardo and Vettel are right behind, followed by Gasly and Perez. There’s no Bottas to provide cover. Away from the start, rain always has the potential to catch anyone out, though Hamilton tends to excel in such conditions.

Perez was nowhere near Verstappen in either practice or qualifying but he was highly competitive against the Mercedes. Hamilton does start a couple of rows ahead of him, but Bottas is further back. And if Verstappen has a failure, either himself or the car, then Perez could end up either in positions 1 or 2. Assuming he doesn’t fail himself (he’s a good driver but has had some unnecessary errors this year).

So, nothing really grabs me. Problem is assessing the weather. In wetter conditions, Norris may be value to be top 6, if it’s drier he may find it harder. And parc ferme means everyone’s locked into their downforce setup, which will be high to try and get more grip in the soggy stuff.

It’s not especially heroic but I’ve backed under 16.5 classified finishers at evens. Uncertain weather makes things very difficult to assess.

Race start is 2pm UK time.

Morris Dancer