Bahrain: pre-race 2021
Well, the bet failed to come off. It was eminently achievable, and the four-tenths Sainz dropped to his team mate in the first sector on the last run was the difference. So, a red start, but also an exciting qualifying session.
The first session had some surprises as we got the season underway. Mazepin spun on his first lap, and followed this up with a late spin that brought out yellows and compromised many drivers behind him. Losing both Haas cars was expected, and Latifi also failed to proceed with his Williams, but Russell did well to advance. Ocon and Vettel were the two men perhaps most affected by the Mazepin yellows and we have a four time champion starting 18th. Vettel’s had pretty rotten luck this year. Verstappen was quickest in this session but was concerned he might have damaged his floor on the kerbs.
Be aware that the second Mazepin spin’s yellow flags mean that many drivers will have lap times investigated so the final grid could be reshuffled significantly from qualifying.
In the second session the Mercedes, Red Bulls, McLarens and AlphaTauris (who had been alarmingly fast in the first part of qualifying) went out on the medium tyres to try and start the race with an advantage. Ricciardo and Perez had lap times deleted for exceeding track limits and had to burn up more tyres. This was not to the Mexican’s advantage as he could only manage 11th, defenestrated by less than half a tenth. Both Alfa Romeos were likewise ousted at this stage, as was Tsunoda, undone by the medium tyre approach. Russell was last.
And so the third session came about. It was still unclear who would be fastest, Hamilton or Verstappen. It was extremely close between them on the first runs, but on the second Verstappen nailed it and grabbed pole by almost four-tenths. Bottas was two-tenths behind his team mate for 3rd on the grid. Leclerc put in a strong performance for Ferrari (four-tenths ahead of his team mate in sector 1), and starts 4th. Gasly was next up, sharing row three with Ricciardo. Norris and Sainz comprise row four, with Alonso and Stroll bringing up the rear (both with team mates eliminated in Q1).
At this stage I think Verstappen’s looking good for the win.
The grid, incidentally, appears unaffected by the Mazepin yellows.
My initial race betting thoughts were:
Perez top 6, Perez podium
Leclerc podium
Mazepin DNF
AlphaTauri double points
Verstappen was just 1.57 for the win. Great chance of it happening but shenanigans can always occur and, as a rule, I dislike short odds bets. He’s 1.74 on Betfair, mind.
Perez is 3.75 for a podium. I’m not convinced this is value because he has to both climb through the field and get past Bottas (probably) who will have spent the last 20 laps pulling away from the field. Also, Perez is great at tyre management but in qualifying he also blew through two sets, of three, of the medium, thought to be the best tyre for the race. Not impossible but I’d probably want slightly better odds. Hmm. Worth considering (particularly on Betfair where the odds are 4.5). Perez is 1.44 for top 6 which is too short to appeal to me.
Leclerc is 4.33 for a podium. He was less than a tenth behind Bottas in qualifying but hard to say if that gap grows or vanishes in race trim. And he may get gobbled up by Perez. Or Gasly, for that matter, who starts on the medium tyres to the Ferrari's softs.
Mazepin is only 2.1 for a DNF, which is very tight, and yet I’m still tempted. He spun twice in about half a dozen, or fewer, qualifying laps.
AlphaTauri are 1.73 for double points. Tsunoda starts 13th but his car is great and, so far, he’s taken to F1 like a duck to water. Tempting.
So, nothing standing out on the odds front from my initial thoughts.
As is usual, I also checked to see if anything leapt out at me:
Hamilton, lead lap 1, 4
Safety car, 1.53
There’s a pretty high chance, reliability permitting, of the
top three forming the podium. Bottas may be a weak link, however, and the special’s
number of classified finishers could fall away too. So, no. Interesting but the
number of contingencies make the odds too short.
In recent times Verstappen’s been iffy at the start. I quite like Hamilton to take this. He’s aggressive and skilled wheel to wheel and if Verstappen cocks up off the line then the septuple world champion will almost certainly be taking full advantage.
Good chance of a safety car as the first race of the season combines with rusty drives and the possibility of reliability failure. Although 1.53 isn’t wonderful.
Decided to back Verstappen for the win at 1.74 (Betfair Exchange). He’s got the fastest car, and is a great driver. Even if he loses it off the line he can, and will (I think), fight back for the win.
The race start is 4pm UK time. Be there, or be square.
Morris Dancer
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