2021 F1 season preamble

The 2020 F1 season was memorably for many reasons. Almost all the luck went my way, there were many great races, and it was the most profitable of seasons, according to blog tips.

And there was a global pandemic that required urgent calendar juggling, which the sport managed very well. It may also be no coincidence that the best season for some years was also the year we didn’t visit the dreary snoozathons of Singapore and Monaco, although a few turgid tracks did pollute the calendar (yes, Abu Dhabi. You).

Unfortunately, the 2021 season’s increased length is as much due to the inclusion of exciting new realms like Saudi Arabia and a return to the campy land of China as it is the classic circuits of Canada, Brazil, and Japan.

Speaking of Brazil, the nuts plan to cut down a rainforest for an identikit circuit has been shelved and we’re back to the fantastic Interlagos. Huzzah!

Driver changes were numerous, and there are some team changes too. Aston Martin returns after some time, becoming the rebranded Racing Point team.

Renault, meanwhile, becomes Alpine.

Although rule changes are minimal this season (they’ll be very significant for 2022) there is still a chance of Mercedes’ dominance being challenged. Red Bull need a little bit extra to allow Verstappen to have a real go at Hamilton, and this would be aided by a very competent wingman in the form of Sergio Perez, who replaces Albon.

Ferrari had a torrid 2020. But the reason is largely because they were naughty with the 2019 engine and ended up having to take a huge step back in 2020. This means there’s also room for a great leap forward in 2021. With Vettel off to Aston Martin, and Leclerc a clear number one, there is the potential for Ferrari to be much more competitive.

I’ll also be very interested to see if McLaren can build on last year’s excellent form, and Aston Martin likewise.

But do I think Mercedes will actually be challenged? No. But it’s not impossible.

I do think the midfield will be more squeezed, with fewer chaps getting a podium appearance despite half a dozen more races than in 2020. I think Mercedes, Red Bull, and probably Ferrari will have a greater overall share.

Another intriguing point to consider is how well Mick Schumacher does. His father, whom I hope is doing as well as he can be under the circumstances, is now 52, and some will still argue he is the greatest F1 driver ever. Quite the legacy for his son to live up to. But Hill and Rosberg have been names of father and son winners, and Max Verstappen has already exceeded his father.

As an aside, Norris got COVID-19 over the winter break. Whilst not great for him it does mean he’s very unlikely, alongside Perez and Hamilton (and maybe Stroll? I forget if he had it last year) to be reinfected. It’s a marginal consideration if you’re betting on how he’ll fare points-wise or versus Ricciardo.


The Upper Midfield

Which brings us neatly to the question of how a very tasty upper midfield will perform. Assuming nobody makes up a huge amount of ground and my Ferrari prediction is correct, we’ll have McLaren, Aston Martin, and Alpine (that’s McLaren, the former Racing Point team, and the team formerly known as Renault) vying to be best of the rest.

I’ll start with McLaren as they won the best-of-the-rest accolade last year, and they have the most complete driver lineup. Sainz is a good driver but Norris has matched him during their two seasons together. The Briton is joined this year by the very fast Ricciardo. I think they’re in great position with the drivers, although it’s worth remembering the Racing Point was a better car last year. McLaren ran their races very well in 2020 and had better reliability, but they also had a slice of luck to stay ahead of the Pink Panthers. I suspect they’ll be best of the rest again, due to the excellent pairing of Ricciardo and Norris.

Aston Martin is interesting. They had the fastest car (of the midfield) last year but it was more vulnerable to reliability woe than some others. In addition, they’ve lost (by choice) Perez and replaced him with Vettel. The German’s had immense success in the past, but in 2020 almost always looked a step behind Leclerc. Stroll is a reasonable driver but not a world beater. The team has always done a lot with a tight budget, and it may have more cash nowadays. Will that translate into on-track success? I’m not so sure. A lot may depend on whether we see the Vettel of old or if his form remains a shadow of what it once was. They have a shot at beating McLaren and Alpine, but also the weakest drivers of the upper midfield.

Alpine has a blast from the past in the form of the returning Alonso. He joins Ocon as Ricciardo jumps ship for McLaren. Alonso’s undoubtedly fast but also not exactly conducive to team harmony. Ocon may find him difficult to handle on pace, and with Russell impressing in the Mercedes last year, the French driver might find the pressure very substantial. Renault were close but not quite close enough in 2020. I think Alonso is likely to be comparable to Ricciardo in terms of speed, but where the team needs to improve is the car. McLaren has steadily gotten better over recent years, but it seems Renault were a little stuck in a rut. We’ll see if a rebrand brings a change in fortunes.

 

The Lower Half of the Grid

AlphaTauri had a great 2020 season but are in a bit of a weird No Man’s Land (like Red Bull have been, albeit lower in the pecking order). Gasly won his first race, doing very well to keep ahead of Sainz, and Kvyat had a decent year, although not enough to keep his seat. He’s been replaced by Yuki Tsunoda. Whilst definitely not a backmarker, easily beating Alfa Romeo to say nothing of strugglers Haas and Williams. I’m not sure they’ll be able to advance much further, but we’ll see.

Alfa Romeo are not atrocious but they also aren’t exactly competing for podium positions. Indeed, they’re the fastest team, I believe, not to get a podium at all during the occasionally chaotic 2020 season. But, they are able to nibble at the points fairly often. A huge shift in pace is needed for them to beat anyone but Haas or Williams.

It’s less than a decade ago that Williams were best of the rest behind Mercedes, and only 9 years since Maldonado won an improbable victory at Spain. Haas, meanwhile, were regularly in the points a few seasons ago whereas scoring in the last couple of years has been a rare treat. With limited resources and a huge set of rule changes next year I’m not expecting big things from either team, who will likely be focused, as much as possible, on getting 2022 right. Because a major set of rule changes is a big opportunity to make a great leap forward. And if a team gets it wrong, that can lead to a decade of pain.


In Brief

That’s a lot of waffle. The concise version of my thoughts are thus:

  • Mercedes and Hamilton very likely to win again (I realise this is a brave prediction).
  • Ferrari to improve very significantly and regularly feature on the podium.
  • Best of the rest likely a McLaren/Aston Martin contest, with the former perhaps likely to win it.

I have seen a number of specials on Ladbrokes, which generally haven’t appealed. Be aware that there’s every chance of more COVID-19 interference, with the Australian opener likely to be delayed or cancelled, and likewise China. I’d be very loath to back ‘more than’ type markets for points finishes and the like.

One last point: remember that testing times mean sod all. But testing can be useful for spotting cars with poor reliability.

Morris Dancer

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