Tuscany: pre-race 2020
Not too many surprises in qualifying, though Verstappen was closer than expected and the Renaults discovered some pace.
Gasly was the fastest chap to be eliminated in Q1, ahead of Giovinazzi, both Williams, and Magnussen.
Q2 saw some big names drop, though it’s no longer surprising to say farewell to a Ferrari at this stage. Vettel qualified a mere 14th, ahead of Grosjean and behind Norris, Kvyat, and Raikkonen. As usual, midfield times are very competitive.
Hamilton was half a tenth ahead of Bottas after the first runs in Q3, but there were no real improvements, save for Leclerc, as Ocon’s Renault stopped working on track and almost nobody else had the chance to go faster. Verstappen did narrow the gap a bit and was a few tenths off pole in 3rd. However, the Mercedes hates traffic, and high temperatures, so maybe the Red Bull will stand a chance in the race. Albon lines up alongside his team mate, and Leclerc managed to put his Ferrari into 5th, which is rather above expectations. Perez and Stroll followed but their places will be switched (see below), with Ricciardo, Sainz, and Ocon following.
Worth noting everyone set their fast laps in Q2 on the soft tyre, which looks like it has the life expectancy of a character in The Animals of Farthing Wood. Two stops are entirely possible and perhaps is the probable strategy.
Perez has a slightly odd 1 place penalty for a near-collision in practice. Shame, as he was faster in qualifying than Stroll despite his team mate having the only set of available upgrades, worth an estimated quarter of a second a lap.
My initial betting thoughts are:
Quite a few retirements
Verstappen win
Perez podium
Safety car
Verstappen
is only 4.75 to win, which I find surprising given he was off the pace, and
following cars will be very hard most of the time. Could pay off if he’s in the
top 2 which is entirely possible given how poorly Bottas has started recently.
Perez is 7 for a podium. If those ahead suffer reliability woe or make a mistake (and they tend to be punished by a track not overflowing with Softy Walter run off areas) he should be in a good position to take advantage. Requires quite a slice of luck, though.
A safety car is 1.44. May well happen but bit short.
In accordance with my horoscope, I then checked the market for anything that leapt out at me.
Under 16.5 classified drivers, 2.25Vettel, not to be classified, 3.5
I do think
this circuit has bite. The track is narrow making overtaking hard, perhaps
excepting the straight (if a car can stick closer enough beforehand) which
means there’s potential for contact, and going off-track even a little can be a
gravelly adventure. 2.25 for four or more retirements is quite appealing,
especially considering both Ocon and Vettel have already had reliability
problems in qualifying and practice. Plus the heat and potential tyre wear
increases the chance of woe.
Vettel starts surrounded by cars, with one that doesn’t suit him, and which has gone a bit wonky already. 3.5 isn’t the best odds, however, and I’m leaning more towards the other bet.
Decided to back the 2.25 for there to be under 16.5 classified finishers (a whole 2.3 with boost). Tyres, heat, reliability, narrow track, and off-track torment could all play a role. Let’s hope the race is entertaining.
(As mentioned previously, I’m tight on time this weekend so there may or may not be a post-race ramble, and if there is it will likely be later than usual).
Morris Dancer
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