Italy: pre-race 2020
Qualifying was somewhat farcical, though not quite as hilariously stupid as last year. It was the same old story at the sharp end but some of the competitive midfield were rather tasty. The race could be very good. Except at the front. Probably.
In Q1 the cars predictably all get sent out at the same time to try and take advantage of the fabled slipstream and most ended up buggering themselves. Vettel ended up leaving at this stage, as did Grosjean, Giovinazzi, and both Williams.
Q2 saw much the same nonsense, the Mercedes (perhaps surprisingly setting fast times on the soft rather than medium tyres) cruising serenely at the sharp end whilst the rest scrambled in their wake. Kvyat, Ocon, Leclerc, Raikkonen, and Magnussen all left proceedings here.
In Q3, the Mercedes went out early for the second run, helping the rest of the field to avoid idiocy and everyone got a decent shot at a lap. Kudos to the top team. Hamilton was fastest by half a second ahead of Bottas, and a very impressed 3rd on the grid was achieved by Sainz (although he was a full eight-tenths off the pole time). Two-hundredths further back was the speedy Perez, whilst Verstappen could only get up to 5th. Norris and Ricciardo followed closely, with Stroll, Albon, and Gasly a couple of tenths further back.
The win is a Mercedes matter but the rest of the points look very up for grabs with a high degree of competition from multiple teams, including McLaren, Racing Point, Red Bull, and Renault. Looks dire for Ferrari, though.
Early betting thoughts:Ricciardo podium
Safety car
Ricciardo
is 7.5 for a podium. Given his performance last weekend and how tight it is,
that’s tempting, although he did have some car troubles in practice.
A safety car is 1.73, which is oddly long given how many cars there have been this year. Hmm.
Other bets that caught my eye:Ferrari to score no points 1.91
Ricciardo not to be classified 5
Ferrari have been poor and the midfield is, frankly, better than them. Leclerc’s been driving pretty well but if there aren’t many DNFs I think they might struggle to score.
Ricciardo’s
a great driver and the Renault’s competitive but he also starts in the thick of
it, and his car has, yet again, had practice problems which could lead to a
reliability failure.
It’s set to be sunny and bright, so there’s a small chance that might cause problems for the Mercedes. Barring that, and/or tyre woe, it’s hard to see beyond them on the podium once more.
Decided to back Ferrari not to score at 1.91 (1.95 with boost). Very tempted by the Ricciardo bet but the race for a podium’s going to be super competitive. Tricky but I’m not tipping that. If you’ve got a free bet or suchlike that’s a good candidate.
Bit tight on time so the post-race ramble might be up late, or not at all.
Morris Dancer
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