Hungary: pre-race 2019

Well, I utterly misjudged all three top teams. I thought Mercedes would have a slight edge but that Ferrari and Red Bull would be close enough for Vettel/Verstappen to stand a small chance. Instead, Verstappen scored his first pole position with an impressive performance, and Ferrari lagged some way behind. On top of that, Bottas beat Hamilton.

Q3 had some interest. Yes, both Williams get eliminated, but Russell put in a fantastic lap and was only narrowly ejected. His time was better than both Racing Point cars and Ricciardo. Speaking of whom, Perez and Ricciardo kind of tripped over one another when trying to make find space for a final lap, compromising both of them. (Unlike some other circuits, following a car remains a bugger in Hungary. This will have implications for the race. Passing will be very hard, and getting caught in traffic due to mistimed a pit stop will be costly).

In Q2, Magnussen, driving the up to date spec Haas, was the slowest (Grosjean, in the original season-starting spec Haas, made it to Q3). Giovinazzi and both Toro Rossos were eliminated too, and Hulkenberg was the fastest chap not to progress any further. But choice of tyres might make 11^th not too bad a starting spot on a track where overtaking is a bugger.

In Q3, Verstappen was fastest after the first runs and then even faster to retain it, finishing two-hundredths ahead of Bottas. Hamilton was nearly two-tenths further back and will line up alongside Leclerc, the Ferrari a quarter of a second off the slower Mercedes.

Vettel starts 5^th, four-tenths and one place ahead of Gasly, who was over eight-tenths off his team mate. One suspects he won’t have a second season at Red Bull.

Norris and Sainz were within a tenth of one another and make row four McLaren territory. Grosjean and Raikkonen are row five.

If Verstappen can get ahead of Hamilton fairly often that alters the complexion of the title race. It makes Bottas’ task perhaps easier, and Bottas being ahead of Hamilton makes Verstappen’s unlikely attempt on the title a bit easier too. Don’t get me wrong, this is very much Hamilton’s to lose, but if he has two people capable of being ahead of him, that makes things trickier.

Looking to the race, passing is very hard because of air flow disruption and the nature of the circuit (less slipstreaming, more dirty air screwing up corner grip, and therefore speed). Verstappen’s had some dodgy starts recently. If he starts like he did in Austria, he’s almost certainly out of the running for the win, and possibly the podium too.

In his favour, the Red Bull is likely even faster relative to rivals than qualifying makes it seem. If Verstappen leads lap 1, I think he’s very very likely to win the race (it’d take screw-up, mechanical failure, or phenomenal bad luck for it to be otherwise. Around 2014 or so Rosberg was [then elading] shafted by the timing of a safety car that enabled almost everyone else to get a cheap stop, so it can happen).

Because passing’s so hard everyone will try to minimise their pit stops, hence the top five all starting on the medium compound (unsure about Gasly).

Rain is very unlikely. Giovinazzi got a three place grid penalty for impeding someone during qualifying.

Early betting thoughts:

Bottas/Hamilton lead lap 1

Lay Verstappen win

Hulkenberg points

No Safety Car

Verstappen title?

Bottas and Hamilton are 5 and 6 to lead lap 1. This is likely to be their best chance for the win, and therefore a more sensible approach than backing them to win (although, interestingly, Bottas is also 5 to win, whereas Hamilton is 3.4). Not a bad idea.

Oddly for a circuit where passing is a bigger, under half of all pole-sitters have gone on to win. Verstappen is 2.12 as a lay for the win. That’s reasonable but not outstanding. If he screws up the start, that could be it for him.

Hulkenberg is 1.9 for points. He starts 11^th with choice of tyres, so it’s worth considering. I’m surprised his odds aren’t shorter.

No Safety Car is 2.37. Hungary’s the least likely circuit for a safety car, so I’ll probably back this.

Not a race bet, but Verstappen is 17 for the title. He’s narrowed the gap to Hamilton over the last four races from about 80 points to about 60. At that rate, he’ll end up 10 points behind. But that does include an oddly terrible race in Hockenheim (from Hamilton’s perspective), and heating problems in Austria (which may recur but not on a regular basis). Red Bull’s recent performance upgrades seem immense, and Verstappen’s been driving astoundingly well all year. Perhaps worth a look.

Anyway, lots of tempting stuff but I perused the markets to see what else was kicking. Here’s what caught my eye:

Special, Verstappen + Mercedes to be top 5, Williams/Racing Point all classified finishers, 2.1

Mercedes, most team points, evens

If they finish, then pace would strongly suggest Verstappen and the two Mercedes should be top 5. So far this year, Williams have not had a single DNF, and Racing Point have had just two. So, 2.1 on those contingencies happening looks pretty tempting.

Mercedes can score most team points even if Verstappen wins. It’s 25 for a win, and if Mercedes and also on the podium that’s 33 for them. To tie, Gasly has to finish 6^th. He’s had a quartet of top 6 finishes in the first 11 races of the year. And that assumes Verstappen wins. If he’s 2^nd, then it looks very likely Mercedes top score. The big variant is the start, because passing’s so hard.

No one stand out great bet there, but lots of stuff that looks reasonably good. Pretty tricky picking what to back.

I’m backing Bottas at 5 and Hamilton at 6 to lead lap 1, splitting one stake evenly between them. Verstappen’s had dodgy starts at two our of the last three races, and both Mercedes drivers know that overtaking here is difficult, putting a premium on lap 1 moves.

I’m also backing the special on Mercedes and Verstappen to all finish top 5, and all the Racing Point/Williams cars to be classified at 2.1. On pace, the first set of contingencies should be nailed on. Of the latter, those four cars have just two DNFs this year between them.

On the title, might be worth backing Verstappen now as this race could see him dominant (race pace usually better for Red Bull and he was the fastest man in qualifying). He’s 17.

I suspect the race will be a lot less entertaining than the last three excellent outings we’ve enjoyed. But if Verstappen wins or Hamilton crashes out (the latter rather less likely) it could reignite the title race.

Morris Dancer