Hungary: post-race analysis 2019


An interesting race, not on a par with the recent three but certainly more entertaining than the average Hungarian outing. Betting-wise, bad. One bet didn’t come off, the other was right on judgement, wrong on luck. Not much can be done about the latter case.

In addition to Giovinazzi’s three place penalty for impeding during qualifying, Ricciardo started from the back due to a new engine (he was the only man to start on the hard tyre).

Off the line it was formation flying. Bottas got a good start but locked up, and from there the only way was backwards. Hamilton passed him, then so did Leclerc. The Finn and Monegasque had light contact with major consequences, compelling Bottas to box for a new nose and hard tyres, and pretty much ruining his race (and my bet, alas).

Another chap with a terrible start was Gasly. Given what happened last race (and, for Bottas, the impending decision between him and Ocon for the second Mercedes seat) this is not good timing. The Frenchman lost about three places and although he was helped a bit by Bottas’ woe, was never able to make much impression. Norris had a rubbish stop, helping Gasly out a bit more, but he finished behind Sainz, who is the most impressive Spaniard since the last one. [On a serious note, he’s driving rather well this year].

At the front Verstappen and Hamilton were close to one another but leaving behind the Ferraris like Rasputin and a married woman leaving an imperial ball. Ferrari were very much the third team here (Vettel ended up on the podium because of the aforementioned Bottas/Gasly situation).

After the pit stops Verstappen was about 5s ahead of Hamilton, both on hard tyres. The Briton immediately pushed, closed the gap in about two laps and then had a fair but earnest crack at passing the Dutchman, who also defended very skilfully. Hamilton wasn’t quite able to do it and his brakes were marginally hotter than the sun so he dropped back a bit before his car melted.

Further back, Bottas had passed some chaps then become bottled up behind Ricciardo. As mentioned, the Aussie had started on the hard tyre and was going long. And Bottas couldn’t get past.

At the sharp end, Mercedes did a clever thing. With Ferrari a day behind them and Verstappen barely ahead, they pitted Hamilton for medium tyres. He retained 2nd and went charging after the Dutchman. Hamilton complained about Mercedes’ strategy. Verstappen complained about Red Bull’s strategy. Who was right?

Mercedes. Hamilton closed up with about half a dozen laps left. The hard tyres on Verstappen’s Red Bull had gone and the pass was a rather lame end to an interesting duel. Verstappen pitted for soft tyres and duly banged in the fastest lap, but he must be disappointed. Close racing and clever strategy. Quite good stuff.

Late on, with differing strategies, Vettel passed Leclerc to nab the final podium position. Sainz finished 5th, again, further cementing McLaren’s position as best of the rest. Gasly was only 6th. Raikkonen finished 7th, ahead of fellow Finn Bottas. Having a good season is Raikkonen, and is clearly worth his place on the grid for Alfa Romeo.

Despite his ropey pit stop, Norris got 9th, making it a double points finish for McLaren, and Albon got the final point for Toro Rosso.

There was no safety car and the only retirement was Grosjean, who pitted his Haas to end his race.

Drivers:
Hamilton 250
Bottas 188
Verstappen 181

Gap to Verstappen is now about 70 points. If things had swung the other way it’d be mid-50s. Difficult for Red Bull and Verstappen, even with excellent development and very good driving. A shame, but I do think the title is pretty much over. On the plus side, we could see more exciting racing at the sharp end.

Constructors:
Mercedes 438
Ferrari 288
Red Bull 244
McLaren 82
Toro Rosso 43
Renault 39
Alfa Romeo 32
Racing Point 31
Haas 26
Williams 1

Worth noting that Gasly has a third the points of Verstappen (63 versus 181). Not great. Even with that, Red Bull have a shot at overtaking Ferrari. Lower down, McLaren have tightened their grip on the midfield crown but it’s competitive behind them.

The next race is in four weeks, at Belgium. Let’s hope the races stay entertaining but the bets turn out a bit greener.

Morris Dancer

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