Spain: pre-race 2019

The first session of qualifying was notable for Hulkenberg making an error and taking his Renault on a scenic excursion through the gravel. He was able to return to the pits and his team mended the wounded car, but he was unable to progress any further, missing out on Q2, to his team mate, by under two-hundredths. Unsurprisingly, the Williams were slowest, but Russell (who was 19^th fastest but will start 20^th due to a penalty) was within a few tenths of Giovinazzi, so perhaps the gap is narrowing. Stroll also failed to reach Q2.

The second part of qualifying was as competitive as ever, with just a few hundredths separating progression from elimination. Norris, Albon, Sainz, Raikkonen and Perez left at this stage (as an aside, Norris and Albon have been impressive in their début season. Harder for Russell to show his skill given his car, of course). Leclerc cocked up his first lap and had to have a second, meaning he only got one run in for Q3.

Q3 saw the top six joined by both Haas chaps, Kvyat, and Ricciardo. The actual gap between Hamilton and Vettel was pretty close, just a couple of tenths. Unfortunately for them, Bottas put in a stonking lap to eclipse the field by over half a second. The Finn is doing rather well this year (third pole on the bounce, I think). Verstappen added to Ferrari woes by slipping his Red Bull ahead of Leclerc, who could only manage 5^th. Gasly was next up, with the fourth row a Haas affair (Grosjean one place and one-hundredth of a second ahead of Magnussen). Kvyat and Ricciardo comprise the fifth row, but with the Haas habit of drifting backwards in races they might fancy their chances of moving forward.

The only penalties I’m aware of are a 3 place drop for Ricciardo due to reversing woe in Baku last time out, and a 5 place penalty (1 in reality) for Russell (component changes, I think, maybe the gearbox).

The forecast is for an entirely dry race. Might be expected in Spain, but still worth checking.

My initial betting thoughts were:

Verstappen podium

Kvyat/Norris top 6

Williams double classified

After a rather long delay, Verstappen’s podium odds came out at 2.6. That’s a bit longer than I was expecting, and might be worth backing.

The top 6 bet is based on the Haas probably drifting backwards and a reasonable chance of one of the top 6 suffering misfortune. Kvyat is 5.5, Norris is 8. I feel a bit more inclined to back Norris on a driver basis, though McLaren has a worse reliability record. Tricky.

There was no double classified market that I could see at the time of writing (5.38pm Saturday). [Next day the Williams price was 1.5, which is too short to tempt].

Given most of the markets weren’t up I decided to wait until Sunday before making a decision.

Perusing the markets Sunday morning revealed the following:

Hamilton, lead lap 1, 3.5

Raikkonen to beat Ricciardo, 2.75 (could hedge with Ricciardo to be classified 1.53)

Giovinazzi to beat Stroll, 3

Kvyat to win group 2, 8

Norris to win group 2, 11

Kvyat winner without big 6, 11

Norris, winner without big 6, 17

Bottas, drivers’ title, 3.25

To be honest, surprised so much looks interesting.

With the exception of last race, I think every event this year has seen the pole-sitter passed at the start, and the same very nearly happened in Azerbaijan too. Hamilton will be hungry for it, and it’s a reasonably long run to the first corner.

Raikkonen to beat Ricciardo (he starts one place behind the Aussie) is largely based on Ricciardo’s uninspiring 75% DNF rate. Renault have brought new bits to try and enhance reliability. Nevertheless, 2.75, given the Finn has a 100% finishing record, is appealing.

Giovinazzi and Stroll had very similar qualifying times. Neither have a DNF to date, so the 3 for the Italian is less tempting than his team mate’s 2.75 above.

Group 2 includes both Haas drivers as well as Kvyat and Norris. They start (Grosjean first) in that order on the grid. But Haas have a bad record of drifting backwards after strong qualifying performances. In their favour is the difficulty of passing in Spain, but if the tyres go off they’ll be passed regardless or lose so much time they’ll just ruin their own race. Kvyat’s had a slightly up and down season with a point and a couple of DNFs. Norris has scored at half the races so far. 8 and 11 respectively are quite interesting, and I’m probably more tempted by Norris.

The winner without the big 6 market might look practically identical to the group 2 winner market, but a safety car could easily add a large slice of luck to the race. In those circumstances the group 2 and winner without the big 6 markets could have drastically different results. Nevertheless, if all proceeds smoothly(ish), they should be more or less the same. And, unlike the group 2 market, you can go for a third the odds top 2 for an each way bet. Similar to the group 2 bet, it’s Kvyat and Norris I’m looking at (Albon and Sainz are 23 and 26 which might also be worth considering). Hmm. Half a mind to split a stake up and back several of them. Although I’d feel like a banana if Haas won.

Last and not at all race-specific, Bottas is 3.25 for the drivers’ title. There’s no each way aspect available. Right now he’s leading the title race, has had several pole positions in a row and, excepting a lacklustre Bahrain performance, has enjoyed the strongest start to a season he’s ever had. Two things put me off: Hamilton’s quite good at winning titles, and the short odds/long time frame is a bit irksome. On the other hand, if any of you backed my 9 tip on Hamilton to exceed Schumacher’s win record and are getting a bit nervous about it, this could be a nice hedge, (and it’s entirely possible both bets can come off).

So, of those many options, which ones tempt me the most?

Verstappen, podium, 2.6

Hamilton, lead lap 1, 3.5

Raikkonen to beat Ricciardo, 2.75

Norris, winner without the big 6, 17 (each way)

Hmm. My thinking at the moment is whether to whittle those down to one or two bets, or maybe back all but with half-stakes. The agony of choice.

My usual approach would be to go for just two, but I think this time I’ll back them all, but halve the stakes involved. I’ve done this occasionally in the past (typically betting on two drivers from the same time to achieve something) and considered those single bets with £5 on either outcome. For this race, I’ll consider these stakes in the ‘official’ records to be £5 rather than the standard £10, as I’m specifically advocating half-stakes.

So, an exciting quartet of tips. Well, a quartet, at least.

Not in the ‘official’ tips, but if anyone backed my early mention of Verstappen for the win (36 with boost), I’d suggest setting up a hedge at about 3.

The race starts shortly after 2pm UK time. Let’s hope it’s profitable and exciting.

Morris Dancer