Abu Dhabi: pre-race 2019

Unfortunately it was the same old story in Q1, with Kubica slowest of all and Russell just ahead of him. Worth noting the actual back of the grid will see Bottas starting last due to his new engine. Both Alfas also failed to progress, as did Grosjean.

In Q2, Magnussen was slowest, meaning he starts just ahead of his team mate. Both Racing Points and Toro Rossos also failed to progress (Renault will be pleased to get both their cars into the top 10, which may help them in their inter-team battle). I believe that Ferrari did something interesting, with Vettel starting on the soft and Leclerc possibly starting on the medium tyre (unsure if he qualified on that or the soft). Given how crumbly the soft is, especially on the Ferrari, that’s a very counter-intuitive choice.

Hamilton seemed faster on the first run in Q3, and so it proved. Bottas will start last but qualified with a time second only to his team mate. Verstappen will line up alongside Hamilton on the grid, which could make it a tasty start.

Then we have the two Ferraris on the second row, which might see sparks, followed by Albon and Norris, who’s had a rather good first season (slightly harder to assess Albon given he’s a long way off Verstappen, but has also been promoted to race against one of the best drivers in just his first season). Ricciardo and Sainz are next, with Hulkenberg last of the top 10/9.

Just on Ferrari: they cocked up. Yeah, shocking, I know. Leclerc didn’t get in a final lap because he lacked the time. He blamed Vettel (ahead on-track) for backing up too much, though others were doing that too. It was a strategic mistake but indicative of the team’s current state that his first reaction was to blame his fellow driver.

I believe the only penalty is Bottas’ (back of the grid). The weather, shockingly, is expected to be dry.

Early betting thoughts:

Bottas podium [as suggested earlier by Mr. Sandpit]

Albon podium

Vettel/Leclerc DNF

Bottas is 3.75 for a podium, which is a bit tight given that he starts last and has his team mate, two Ferraris, and Verstappen in the way (as well as perhaps Albon). That said, the new engine will serve him well come the race.

Albon is 4. This is almost certainly not value. I’d prefer to back the Ferraris DNFing. The drivers ahead of him are all faster, or in faster cars, and the most obvious way for this to come off is some more red-on-red daftness.

Vettel and Leclerc are both 7 to DNF. Got to say, I’m wondering about this. Last race of the season, already some grumpiness (see above), they’re fighting to be the top dog in the team.

As usual, I perused the market to see what leapt out.

Special, 2.2, all Mercedes/Red Bull top 6, both Williams classified

Leclerc, winner, each way, 11 (third the odds, top 2) [or hedge and back on Betfair]

Norris, winner without the big 6, each way 5.5 (third the odds top 2)

McLaren, 1.83, double points

Barring accidents etc I fully expect both Mercedes and Red Bulls to be top 6, and Williams have a very good finishing record. It might actually be best or just behind Mercedes. So although 2.2 aren’t huge odds, it’s well worth considering.

It’s interesting that Leclerc (and Vettel, who’s 15 and definitely starts on the soft tyre) has such long odds to win given the Monegasque is just 1.53 for a podium. Breakdown/accident is always possible and Verstappen’s had some very iffy starts this year, although he’s also tended to recover very well. Against that is that when Leclerc was grumpy at Monaco he promptly introduced his car to the wall.

Norris starts 7^th, best of the rest. So winner without the big 6 is 5.5 on him holding station. He’s a good driver but has also had a fair share of bad luck this year and the crumbly red tyres might lead to complications for those who made the lower part of the top 10.

McLaren have generally had the best car outside the top 3 all year, and have two good drivers. Misfortune and the odd spot of poor reliability has cost them here and there, though, so 1.83 is good on pace but I do wonder about their reliability.

At the moment the bets I like the look for most are Ferrari DNFs at 7, and the special at 2.2.

In the end, I think the special at 2.2 makes more sense, tempting as a Ferrari implosion is.

And that’s my final tip of this season.

The race starts at 1.10pm.

Morris Dancer