Belgium: pre-qualifying 2019

Been some news during the break. Bottas stays at Mercedes next year. Ocon is taking Hulkenberg’s seat at Renault next year. Currently the German is without a seat for 2020. I think Ocon’s talented but it’s a shame for Hulkenberg.

We also saw the provisional calendar for 2020, which has 22 races. Vietnam is new, and an early race. The Netherlands make a return after quite some time. Hockenheim, as expected, isn’t on the calendar.

Pre-practice I tipped, with tiny stakes, a couple of Red Bull focused things. Albon to top FP1 each way at 14, Verstappen for a podium at 2.8, and Verstappen to ‘win’ qualifying, each way, at 9. My thinking is that the car’s developed ferociously, and Mercedes may face overheating problems.

On the grid front, Albon starts the second half of his début season in a top team, and the back of the grid. Upgrades/replacement parts means he’ll be at, or very close to, the back. This might not be a bad thing for him as it reduces the pressure on his first race result, and qualifying becomes a theoretical exercise.

Stroll and Kvyat also have back-of-the-grid penalties, so there’ll be a squabble over who’s last. Five place grid penalties are doled out to Ricciardo, Hulkenberg and Sainz. So qualifying’s going to be a vague guideline rather than actually determine the grid.

In first practice Vettel was quickest, two-tenths ahead of Leclerc and a comically enormous nine-tenths faster than Verstappen. Annoyingly, Albon was just eight-hundredths off his team mate, making my bet red. Bottas was three-tenths further back, a little ahead of Hamilton. Stroll, Ricciardo, Perez, and Sainz round out the top 10.

Second practice Leclerc was six-tenths ahead of Vettel. Bottas was two-tenths further back, a small margin ahead of Hamilton. Perez was just a tenth off the Briton, and three-tenths ahead of Verstappen. Raikkonen, Stroll, Ricciardo, and Albon followed.

A little bird told me that Mercedes have a new engine worth three-tenths of a second, Perez being forced to revert to the old one after his new engine exploded somewhat. Ferrari also have a new engine but, weirdly (according to Twitterland) it’s going to Haas and Alfa Romeo first. Hmm.

Third practice saw Hamilton put his car into the wall. Mercedes have estimated they’ll be ready for qualifying.

Leclerc was fastest in final practice, nearly half a second ahead of Vettel and Bottas, who were very close to one another. Ricciardo was three-tenths behind Bottas and a similar margin ahead of Verstappen, though I think Red Bull must be sandbagging. Perez and Hamilton were next, followed by Raikkonen, Giovinazzi, and Gasly.

Right now, Leclerc looks tasty for pole, although Vettel, Hamilton, and maybe Bottas cannot be ruled out. For Red Bull, it appears to be damage limitation.

Hamilton was 7.5 to win qualifying. I decided to back that (and tip it now) each way, fifth the odds top three. Even if Ferrari is faster, the bet can still be green. If Mercedes is faster, it is likely to be green. I was quite surprised at the odds, can only presume the possibility of the repairs not being finished in time is lengthening the odds (Bottas is 8.5, incidentally).

Qualifying’s at 2pm UK time. As is now usual, the pre-race ramble will be up on Sunday morning.

Morris Dancer