France: pre-race 2019

Ahead of qualifying, Kvyat had a penalty so would start last (a shame as he looked pretty good in the little running he had), and Hulkenberg is on an inferior engine to Ricciardo, said to be worth a few tenths of a second.

Sadly, Q1 once again saw the Williams last by some way. Stroll also continued his run of poor qualifying results, and Grosjean failed to progress (not sure but I think Haas had some upgrades and Magnussen got them rather than him). Kvyat didn’t go any further but won’t really care, and perhaps wasn’t trying his best, as the aforementioned penalty means he starts last anyway.

A number of cars (most who progressed, including the Ferraris, Verstappen’s Red Bull, Mercedes, and I think McLarens) went out on the mid-pace medium tyre as the faster soft apparently only lasts half a dozen laps before disintegrating. Those who made it to Q3 with the soft tyres, including Gasly, might be in for a rougher race. Albon did well but not well enough, being the fastest chap to be eliminated. Raikkonen also failed to progress, with his team mate Giovinazzi reaching Q3. Hulkenberg could only manage 13^th, and it can’t be blamed entirely on the engine difference as he buggered up his final lap. Perez and Magnussen were the slowest but both did outqualify their team mates.

Would it be yet another Silver Arrows front row lockout?

Yes.

Things had looked tight but Hamilton was able to improve on his second run whereas Bottas could not, and the Briton’s advantage was stretched to nearly three-tenths of a second. Leclerc qualified 3^rd but was over six-tenths off Hamilton’s pace. Verstappen got 4^th, which will please him and the team but he was just nine-thousandths ahead of Norris, who’s looked tasty all weekend. Sainz was just a tenth off, making the third row McLaren territory, to the delight of the team (and rightly so).

Vettel had some errors and an upshift problem during his first run. And his second, frankly, was slow. He qualified 7^th, eight-tenths off Leclerc. That’s a pretty sizeable gap, and even though he’s looked the slower Ferrari all weekend, the position and time difference is cause for concern. Ricciardo is just a tenth off his old Red Bull team mate, ahead of Gasly (9^th) and Giovinazzi.

The front row is tediously familiar but the strong performance by McLaren, Vettel being out of position, and a second row that will be very keen to make a lightning start could make things interesting. Last year there was collision early on between Vettel and Bottas, which shook up the order quite a bit.

My first thoughts betting after qualifying were:

Vettel, not to be classified [check DNFs last year]

Verstappen, podium

Raikkonen points

Upon checking, last year there were just three DNFs, two of which were on the opening lap. I do wonder about backing Vettel not to be classified, though. He seems a bit off-kilter this weekend. Against that, his car is generally very reliable and the French circuit is mostly car park flat, with run-off for days. He’s 7 not to be classified, which isn’t bad.

Verstappen has been driving almost flawlessly this year, and usually makes up places. Given he starts 4^th, that indicates he has a decent chance of getting on the podium. Against that, the Mercedes look out of reach and Leclerc has been competitive all weekend, so it’s far from a certainty. At 2.75, this is worth keeping in mind.

Raikkonen starts 12^th and has choice of tyres. Although he hasn’t scored for a little while, he’s still fast and reliable, and his car is also one of the least likely to have a breakdown. 2.25 is a bit short, I think, though.

Mr. Sandpit suggested looking at Hulkenberg for points, and Kvyat likewise, with the question of the McLarens holding top 6 positions hanging in the air (5.5 together or 2.1 and 2.37 individually). Kvyat is 4.33 for points, and Hulkenberg is 1.61. Of those, I think I’d prefer Kvyat (small note: Russell also got demoted to the back, unsure if he starts behind Kvyat or not).

Anyway, having waited until the next day I then perused the markets to see if anything leapt out at me.

Verstappen, beat Leclerc, 2.75

McLaren, double points, 1.61

There’s also a really tasty 5.5 on Leclerc beating Verstappen, as match bet 3 (especially good as alternative match bet 1 has Verstappen at 2.75 to beat Leclerc). However, I’m certain it’s meant to say Gasly and that it’ll likely be changed when they realise the error. Might put down a pound or two just to find out.

The Verstappen odds on beating Leclerc are identical to the podium odds, which probably makes sense given the pace and reliability of the Mercedes.

McLaren had poor reliability earlier but have been a bit steadier of late. Both cars and drivers have been performing well all weekend, and if they stay out of trouble early on I think they’re highly likely to get points. The odds, however, are a bit tight.

Nothing really leaps out at me, to be honest. Verstappen should make gains, relatively, on Ferrari’s pace from qualifying but he’s been significantly slower all weekend.

Albon at 2.2 and Raikkonen at 2.25 for points seem good (Mr. Sandpit helpfully pointed out that pit stops cost a lot of time, and Ricciardo, Gasly, and Giovinazzi start on the soft tyres.

It’s not very heroic, but then, I’m not very confident, so my tip is to split one stake evenly between Albon and Raikkonen for points (2.2 and 2.25 respectively).

Start time is a little after 2pm (UK).

Morris Dancer