An Early Look at How the 2019 F1 Titles Might Go

There’s a natural focus from fans on the Drivers’ title, but there is a second trophy up for grabs, namely the Constructors’. Interestingly, the 2018 result saw Mercedes get both, again, but Ferrari having two out of three top spots in the Drivers’ table.

Bookies (I look mostly at Ladbrokes) have two markets, one per title race, with the Drivers’, at this early stage, having an each way option. Currently, that’s a fifth the odds for top 3, but as the season unfolds it’ll likely change (not retroactively, of course) to a third the odds top 2, and then the each way option will most likely disappear altogether. The Constructors’ race has just a straight win option.

Obviously, Betfair (and the Ladbrokes Exchange, which has less liquidity but may be a little more convenient if you don’t want to shuffle money around) enables you to hedge bets by betting against specific outcomes.

My record over the years has been mostly positive. As well as the old 71 tip on Button for the 2009 title (from the good old days, when testing times were a useful indicator of pace), I had about 16 each way on Rosberg to win in the early days of total Mercedes dominance. More recently things have been ropier, with the 16 or so on Bottas to win [be top 3] missing out in 2018 by 4 points.

Before looking to the future, Raikkonen, after a few races, was 61 to win the 2018 title. Obviously, he didn’t. But that still made it, effectively, 12 for him to be top 3, and that did happen.

At the time of writing (28 November 2018), the Ladbrokes prices are as follows:

Constructors’:

Mercedes 1.53

Ferrari 3.5

Red Bull 4.5

Renault 101

I think Renault are unlikely to narrow the gap sufficiently to enjoy a credible shot at the title. Whilst they have a very good driver pairing (Ricciardo and Hulkenberg), the gap is simply enormous. The engine does make a difference but if we compare the 2018 Red Bull/Renault results, it’s not the main story. They may pull ahead of the midfield, but won’t be a title contender, I think.

Of the big three teams, the title winner will have a car that’s fast, a car that’s reliable, and a strong driver pairing. Hamilton was good enough to allow Mercedes to win because he beat Vettel by a wide margin, and the Finnish contest (narrowly won by Raikkonen) was tight enough to not even come close to overturning that. Better reliability for Raikkonen would’ve made it closer but Mercedes would still have won.

I think Bottas is likely the weakest of the top teams’ drivers. He did start last season well, if unluckily, but in the latter half he was not up to scratch. Hamilton might yet be fast enough for another double title triumph for Mercedes, but with Ferrari close for two consecutive seasons and Red Bull developing strongly in the second half of 2018, the 1.53 does not tempt me.

Ferrari has an interesting driver pairing and it’s intriguing to consider whether there’ll be fireworks. Probably not on a Hamilton-Alonso scale, but there could be some testiness, and it definitely won’t be as cosy and harmonious as the extremely unusual level of friendliness between Vettel and Raikkonen. Leclerc is a very talented driver, although it’s always difficult to gauge just how good a promising chap is until he’s in a top car against a proven winner. I do expect him to live up to his billing and for the results for Ferrari to improve. However, that may come at a cost of team spirit. For a season or two, the Monegasque may (if Ferrari go down this route) be willing to be a number two driver, but they may prefer just to let them race then back whoever’s got the best shot of the title. I think the Ferrari pairing is probably the strongest of the big teams, but their title prospects depend a lot upon the 2019 offering being quick and reliable.

That brings us to Red Bull, Verstappen, and Gasly. Red Bull has another major change, unique to the top trio of teams, namely the engine. They’re no longer to be provided with Renault engines and will instead be racing with Honda. Which they may not mind too much. Toro Rosso spent the latter half of 2018 burning through Honda engines to help improve development for the big sister team this year. I remember reading that the horsepower deficit from Honda to Ferrari/Mercedes was about half that of the Renault. It’s still significant but, if accurate and maintained for next year, a large step forward for Red Bull.

If we imagine a 2018 season in which Verstappen had half the horsepower deficit he actually had, that would certainly see him finish 3^rd. But there’s another side to the coin. Reliability. Verstappen’s DNFs were mostly due to early season red mist, but Ricciardo’s were almost entirely down to his car breaking. Worth pointing out this didn’t happen as much to some other Renault-powered vehicles (Hulkenberg and Alonso had 7 DNFs each although both had some that were caused by on-track collisions) and the finger has been pointed to Red Bull’s shrink-wrapped approach that decreases reliability. If that is the prime cause it’ll remain, at least to some degree, in 2019.

Gasly has flown under the radar for the most part, overshadowed by the surprise story of Ricciardo joining Renault and the flavour of the month Leclerc getting a Ferrari seat. The young Frenchman who joins Red Bull performed very well against his (sometimes unlucky) team mate at Toro Rosso, beating him by 29 points to 4. We’ll see for certain just how good Gasly is when he’s racing Verstappen race after race, but I think he’ll perform well (although matching the Dutchman would be a hell of a feat).

Does Red Bull have a better chance of winning than Ferrari? Maybe. Hard to gauge whether Vettel-Leclerc is better than Verstappen-Gasly. On cars, we cannot predict development but we do have one piece of significant information: the Renault to Honda engine change for Red Bull. Reliability may improve, although that’s open to question. If it stays the same as this year, Red Bull have very little chance of winning the title. Power should improve by a significant margin. Couple that to the baseline of this year’s performance, and Red Bull could be in a good position to take the title.

However. There’s 4.5 for them. And 3.5 for Ferrari. And it’s still possible that Hamilton will drag the Mercedes to yet another victory. If someone gave me a fiver on condition I backed a team for the title I’d have a hard time deciding between Ferrari and Red Bull, and might favour the latter. But the uncertainty over the engine change coupled with the long time frame and short odds means I haven’t backed anything, and, right now, don’t plan to.

Drivers’:

Hamilton 1.72

Verstappen 4.5

Vettel 4.5

Leclerc 8.5

Bottas 17

Gasly 34

Interesting that the bookie reckons Verstappen and Vettel have an equal shot, but Leclerc is far shorter than Gasly. (At the time of writing, Betfair has Vettel 4.7 and Verstappen 6.4). With the possible exception of Leclerc, I agree with the implicit assumption that Hamilton, Verstappen, and Vettel will top score for their respective teams. However, that does raise the question of how their team mates will do.

It was close in 2018 between Raikkonen, Verstappen, and Bottas. They were covered by just 4 points. Drivers matter a lot but the car matters more. If Red Bull does effectively perform as in 2018 but with the power deficit halved, that instantly pushes them into close title contention, rather than the punchy third spot they had in 2018. That being so, I think there’s some value on Gasly at 34, each way. That comes to, effectively, a 5.6 bet on him being top three. If the cars are close to being even, I suspect Bottas may end up at the back. I haven’t put a huge amount on Gasly, but I think he’s been overlooked due to significant driver changes elsewhere. Leclerc at 8.5 is also somewhat tempting, although I think the Red Bull’s probable improvement from 2018 may make Gasly the better bet.

As for who’ll win the title, Hamilton will have an advantage of being an overt number one. That may or may not be the Ferrari policy. At Red Bull, I think Verstappen will be a de facto number one. But if Gasly can match the Dutchman then he’ll be doing very well indeed. Sadly, (I like change and unpredictability), I think Hamilton is right to be favourite for the 2019 title. But 1.72 is damned short for a bet that won’t pay out for perhaps a year.

I post this often, but it’s worth repeating: don’t take testing times seriously. Listen more to the mood music. Testing can sometimes be indicative of reliability problems, but rarely, these days, of pace.

The large fuel engine means teams can manufacture large or small fuel effects. The tyres vary wildly. And engine modes alter pace substantially.

January update:

This was originally intended to go up late December, but the delay allowed time for new markets to go up on Ladbrokes. I’m disinterested in the intra-team race/qualifying match bets, but there is a title winner without the big 6 market which is a bit more interesting.

Unlike the title market itself, each way here is only a third the odds for top 2. Some contenders are:

Ricciardo 4.33

Hulkenberg 4.5

Perez 5

Grosjean 8.5

Raikkonen 9

Magnussen 10

Stroll 10

Interesting the two Renault drivers are so close but 51 and 101 for the title itself. I think Raikkonen’s miles too short. He’s driving very well but if the Sauber leaps all the way to best of the midfield that’d be impressive, as well as improbable. Last year, Renault, Force India (apparently now inflicted with the name Racing Point), and Haas were closely matched. Too tight to call, I think. But a good market idea.

There are also some Constructor match bets. Sauber are 2.37 to beat McLaren. Bit short for me given the long time scale, but I’d consider backing that if someone gave me a fiver on condition I used it to back one team to beat another.

Morris Dancer