Spain: pre-race 2018

I feel mildly aggrieved that I backed Bottas for pole with a hedge at 1.5, he missed pole by just 0.04s yet the hedge went unmatched. So close, and yet so unprofitable. A small misjudgement on my part, but after ill fortune at the first two races (and a narrow miss at a very long odds bet in Azerbaijan) I’d like the rub of the green.

Hartley didn’t make qualifying, surprising no-one. What did surprise many people was that Hulkenberg failed to escape Q1. This was largely due to a fuel pressure problem, which forced a quick pit stop and appears to have compromised his pace when he finally set a lap (this is the first time in 2018 Sainz has outqualified his team mate). Less surprising was the departure of both Williams (Sirotkin had a three place grid penalty for the crime of being sandwiched between two cars last time out, and Stroll increased his insurance premiums by dismantling some advertising with his car), and Ericsson.

In Q2, neither Force India progressed, with Perez slowest in the session and Leclerc between the two pink panthers. Vandoorne and Gasly also failed to make Q3.

The final session was intriguingly poised, as it really did look like Ferrari had been sandbagging, and they appeared very close to, or even marginally faster than, Mercedes. The first run in Q3 turned all that on its head. Hamilton was fastest, and Bottas was a bit poor, nearly half a second off. Between the two of them were both Red Bulls. Ferrari had a shocker, with Vettel just fifth, and Raikkonen in seventh. Then a very weird thing happened in the final runs. Raikkonen and Ricciardo (maybe some others, not sure) went out on the slower soft tyre, rather than the supersoft. Why? Because the pace difference was small but the durability was much better, and the faster tyres were falling off in the final sector. Even weirder, it worked. Ricciardo went faster but fell two-thousandths short of his team mate. Bottas went quicker, but was four-hundredths off Hamilton’s pole position time.

Vettel lines up 3^rd, just a tenth off Bottas, with Raikkonen alongside him. The Red Bulls were relegated to their customary third row. Magnussen and Alonso are on row four, with Sainz and Grosjean finishing off the top 10. Worth noting that the fourth and fifth rows, whilst some way off Red Bull, were separated by less than two-tenths.

The top six are on the soft, which, right now, looks like the best tyre.

At the moment, the weather forecast is indicating between a third and a quarter chance of rain, probably light. I checked again on Sunday morning, and the forecast was almost 100% dry.

My initial betting thoughts were:

Bottas/Vettel to win

Red Bulls to DNF

Leclerc points

Bottas is 4.5 to win, Vettel 5.5 (5 and 6 respectively on the win only market). I think those odds are a little short. Hamilton typically starts well, and will have the first pit stop (if he retains his advantage) at Mercedes. Not awful odds, though.

Verstappen and Ricciardo are 4 to not be classified. They have, each, a 50% finishing record. The odds aren’t bad, although after Baku one would expect that the team has quietly asked them not to smash into one another this weekend. Of course, they have Magnussen close behind them.

I was impressed with Leclerc last race, and in Q1 he was a full second ahead of his team mate. Starts 14^th on the grid, so rising for points would be impressive. His odds are 4.5, which seems short to me.

As is traditional, I perused the markets.

A #getaprice special on Ladbrokes raised my interest. 101 on Sirotkin, Grosjean, Ericsson and Hartley all not being classified. So far this year, the first two have a 50% DNF rate and the latter two a 25% DNF rate. Of course, multiplying the odds, as each contingency must occur, leads to (all else being equal) odds of one in 64, making 101 appear value.

The first lap leader market has Bottas at 6 and Vettel at 8.5. I think Vettel’s generally started a bit weakly. Bottas may be value, and I perhaps prefer that to the 4.5 for the win. Worth considering.

Renault are 3.4 for a double points finish. Hulkenberg starts far down the grid due to a fuel pressure problem in qualifying, but both he and Sainz had a strong result here last year. Possible, but quite a few ways it could go wrong.

Of the above bets, I do quite like the 101 (131 with boost) on a quartet of not classified chaps, although it’s worth noting the number of DNFs tends to be middling, and every driver named has to fail. Maybe worth a pound or two rather than a full bet.

Verstappen/Ricciardo to not be classified at 4 each is also quite tempting. Reliability failures have been one, with three down to driver error.

Leclerc/Renault points bets I find a bit tricky to assess. The young Monegasque has been driving well so far, with no DNFs to his name. Renault has the car and drivers to be there or thereabouts, but Hulkenberg would have quite a way to climb, and the double aspect of that bet means a collision, driver or pit stop error could ruin it twice as easily.

It’s not the most heroic bet in the world, and I was genuinely tempted to just go for the 101 as the proper tip, but I’ve decided to split a stake between Verstappen and Ricciardo not to be classified. Let us hope Magnussen has a roaring start and introduces himself to the pair of them.

Tricky deciding, so we’ll see how it goes. Race starts just after 2pm.

Morris Dancer