Monaco: pre-qualifying 2018

Grosjean has a 3 place grid penalty for the incident during the first lap of the last race. Given this is for keeping his foot down so his car drifted across the track, endangering other drivers and taking out Hulkenberg and Gasly, this seems a rare case of a grid penalty being excessively lenient.

Meanwhile, Liberty hasn’t exactly dampened down suspicions they’re trying to make everything a bit too American. Rumours abound that the proposed second US GP will get the green light and include a special deal (presumably minimal fee) for Miami. With the likes of Spa, Silverstone, and Interlagos regularly rumoured to be unable to afford to stay in the sport and last minute deals being made, this will antagonise other circuits (and European/Japanese/South American fans) if similar generosity is not forthcoming for classic circuits that offered excellent racing.

There’s also been Twitter rumbling about avoiding the hypersofts at the start being a big advantage due to them graining.

In first practice, Ricciardo was top, a tenth up on Verstappen. Two-tenths back was Hamilton, and half a second off him was title rival Vettel. Raikkonen, Sainz and Bottas followed, with Perez, Grosjean and Sirotkin rounding out the top 10.

In second practice the top two were unchanged, with Vettel in third (four-tenths off Verstappen) and Hamilton a tenth further back. Raikkonen and Bottas followed, and were chased by Hulkenberg, Vandoorne, Alonso and Sainz.

At this stage it’s looking tasty for Red Bull, although Verstappen has a bad history of crashing, both at Monaco specifically and this season generally. Further back, Renault are looking competitive.

Third practice had the same top two, Ricciardo a mere thousandth ahead of Verstappen. Verstappen might have gone faster had he not, once again, introduced his car to the barriers. The Ferraris were close, Vettel ahead of Raikkonen, and the Mercedes likewise, with Hamilton the faster. There’s a clear running order, but the margins are small (although Red Bull lack additional qualifying power which may put Ferrari in the driving seat come qualifying. We shall see). A few tenths back were Hartley and Gasly (rather impressive from Toro Rosso), with Sainz and Sirotkin (also rather punching above his weight) next up.

At this stage it’s uncertain if Verstappen’s car will be capable of qualifying (if he needs a gearbox change that's a five place grid penalty). My own guess would be a 60-70% chance it will be. On pace, I think this is likely to be a Red Bull-Ferrari tussle.

Unfortunately, it appears likely both qualifying and the race will be dry throughout.

Bit pushed for time thanks to the unnecessarily later start times in Europe. My thinking was that backing Raikkonen (each way, hence top 3) for qualifying could make sense, with the right odds.

He’s 13 to be fastest qualifier (17 for the race win). I think that’s very borderline, it could work out (each for, fifth the odds, top three) but equally it’s not fantastic. So, no tip.

Morris Dancer