Early pre-season musings
Between the end of last
season and now I tipped, several times, two bets for the Drivers’
as well as sometimes mentioning two others (one Driver, one
Constructor).
The bets I liked most
were with Ladbrokes, each way with boost (fifth odds top 3) of Bottas
at 16 and Alonso at 12. I’ve said for a while a key factor will be
whether the Renault engine stacks up, which is even more about
reliability than pace (with better reliability Red Bull would’ve
outscored Ferrari in 2017). If the Renault is tasty, then McLaren and
Alonso stand a good chance, particularly as the Red Bull drivers are
quite even and Alonso is likelier to have an overt number one status.
If the Renault is rubbish, then Bottas only has to finish top 3 of
four drivers (the others being his team mate, Vettel and Raikkonen)
which seems eminently possible.
The two other bets I
mentioned less frequently were Vandoorne at 81 each way, because of a
bit of buyer’s remorse (not impossible, but probably a bit daft on
my part) and Red Bull at 9.2 (Betfair this time) because it wasn’t
up for as long. I think the Constructors’ title will be down to
Mercedes or Red Bull, again, based on the Renault engine as much as
anything. Of the probable top four teams, Red Bull has the
outstanding driver team.
In calendar terms, we
lost Malaysia. That’s a bit of a shame as the circuit was one where
overtaking was actually possible, and the safety car odds were
usually wrong because everybody remembers the 2009 monsoon and forget
that, after Hungary, it was the track least likely to have a safety
car.
Two additions to the
calendar this year, with the regular off-and-on Hockenheim (too hard
to pass) returning, and the return after quite some time of a Grand
Prix in France. Always seemed odd not racing there, so let’s hope
the circuit is a good one (most modern circuits are poor, although
the US is very good so hope is not lost).
Speaking of the US, for
some reason that’s still only provisional and subject to
confirmation. I’ll be annoyed if we lose the best new circuit for
decades.
If it remains on the
calendar, we’ll have a 21 race season, with a maximum points tally
available of 525. Last year (20 races), Hamilton, Vettel, and Bottas
exceeded 300 each, with Verstappen, Ricciardo and Raikkonen following
(Verstappen got 168, the other two 200 and 205 respectively).
Mostly fortnight gaps,
but the French, Austrian and British Grands Prix occur on consecutive
weekends, and there’s the usual four week gap (between Hungary and
Belgium).
The first race,
Australia, is a bit unusual and not necessarily a great indicator for
the season as a whole. It’s also, historically, good for McLaren.
Things to watch out for early on will include engine reliability,
getting a feel for overall pace, and trying to remember the
ridiculous rainbow of tyre compounds now available (hypersoft,
ultrasoft, supersoft and soft is just stupid, although I’m mildly
amused at the new superhard compound).
We also learned which
races, in the UK, will be broadcast live on free-to-air Channel 4
(next season every live race will be paid TV only (excepting
Silverstone), with FTA getting highlights. Great). Live races for
2018 on Channel 4 are:
Bahrain
Azerbaijan
Monaco
Austria
UK
Belgium
Singapore
Japan
US
Abu Dhabi
Bahrain is usually
dreadful but did have a classic in 2014. Azerbaijan and Monaco are
tedious, as are Singapore and Abu Dhabi. Austria is ok. The UK,
Belgium, Japan and the US are good. It is displeasing that all the
worst races are on the live list. A slightly weird mix as almost
every circuit is either dreadful or fantastic.
In other news, F1 has
decided that grid girls are to be no more, as it’s not in tune with
the sport’s ethos (unlike the Chinese/Azerbaijani lack of
democracy, Bahrain suppression of protest etc):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/42890261
I think this is bloody
stupid. A more sensible approach would’ve been to soft-switch, have
the grid person be opposite the driver’s gender and, as women come
into the driving side, a natural change would occur in the ‘glamour’
side. Instead they decided that ‘empowering women’ means taking
work away from them, because modelling isn’t on the Puritans’
List of Approved Work for Women. [As an aside, women drivers should
come in, and the sooner the better. There are few sports men and
women can compete directly in together, and F1 is one of them. Plus,
women tend to be shorter and have less mass, which means a lower
centre of gravity and more scope for ballast].
It later emerged that
Liberty has plans for grid kids instead. Because the duties of a grid
girl, deemed to demean and objectify women who are paid
professionals, are magically transformed into a wonderful thing when
done by unpaid children. The selection appears to be either merit
(drivers in junior formulae) or lottery, though how entry to said
lottery would function is currently unclear.
I do wonder if this is
a reaction to the deluge of negative publicity or whether it was
intended all along. If the former, which seems likely, it would
explain the delay in the announcement. However, that decision remains
a steaming mountain of horse manure, particularly when there are many
more serious matters (not least the indefensible pay structure of F1)
to address. But it’s easier getting headlines appeasing third wave
feminists opposed to women being free to make a choice of which the
former heartily disapprove.
Here’s the testing
schedule:
Circuit de
Barcelona-Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain, 26 February-1 March
Circuit de
Barcelona-Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain, 6-9 March
Circuit de
Barcelona-Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain, 15-16 May
Hungaroring, Budapest,
Hungary, 31 July-1 August
After the pre-season
testing is done, I’ll put up a new article about how I think things
stand. Remember, kids, mood music matters more than headline times.
Enormous fuel tanks, umpteen tyre compounds, and varying engine modes
mean that times can be very misleading indeed (unlike in splendid
2009 when it was obviously apparent the Brawn might just be a good
car).
Morris Dancer
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