Early thoughts on 2018
With the 2017 season
yet to finish, it might seem too early to contemplate next year. But,
the markets are up, and it’s interesting, so I thought I’d have a
look at how things might pan out.
The regulations stay
broadly the same (next big shake up will be 2021). There doesn’t
seem to be much movement at all in drivers at top teams (I believe
Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren have unchanged lineups). So
far, so consistent.
There is one major
change, which is McLaren moving from Honda to Renault engines. As
we’ve seen this year, the Renault is much closer to the
Mercedes/Ferrari, although it still has a horsepower deficit.
However, the McLaren has looked rather good in aerodynamic terms, and
Red Bull were, at some circuits, competitive outright.
If the Renault is too
unreliable or slow, then we’re likely to have another
Hamilton/Vettel season in 2018. If the Renault is good enough to
enable Red Bull and McLaren to compete for regular wins, then
Verstappen, Ricciardo, Alonso and Vandoorne step into contention.
Well. Perhaps. In
Mexico, Vandoorne was politely moved out his team mate’s way. He’s
a good driver but I think McLaren will very much be backing Alonso.
What of Red Bull?
Verstappen has a long term contract there, having re-signed this
year, but after 2018 (I think) Ricciardo is a free agent. Rumours
abound he might be off to Mercedes (Ferrari seems less likely). I
don’t think Red Bull will be quite as number one driver about it as
they were in the past, but it does seem probable they’ll favour
Verstappen.
I’ve also read (from
NigelB on PB) that Mercedes are going for a radical redesign for a
high rake philosophy. If that gives them an edge, they may walk it
again. But if they screw it up, they might have made the silliest
design decision since McLaren decided to fundamentally change their
suspension from 2012 to 2013. My guess is that Mercedes will be
there, and are likely to be the team to beat, again.
As well as pace of
driver and car, we must consider reliability. This year, the Mercedes
has been rock solid. Ferrari has been very good indeed, with just a
couple of gremlins (alas, still enough to rob us of a title fight to
the end). The Renault engine has been the most problematic (excepting
Honda, obviously) with 5 and 7 DNFs for Ricciardo and Verstappen
respectively, out of 18 races to date. That’s a title-sinking
statistic if it’s repeated next year.
For Red Bull/McLaren to
have a chance, they need Renault to make a small step forward on
relative pace, and a large step forward on reliability. I think that,
more than speed, might prove more difficult.
Hamilton, Vettel,
Verstappen and Alonso fighting for a title is a very appealing
thought. Let us suppose the cars are roughly equal over the course of
a season in terms of both reliability and pace. Who would win?
In qualifying, Hamilton
and Vettel stand out. Alonso is not a bad qualifier but he is not
Hamilton’s equal. Verstappen’s a bit trickier to assess because
he’s only been in the sport during the age of engine modes giving
Mercedes (and, to a lesser extent, Ferrari) an advantage. This is a
weakness Renault are actively seeking to address.
In the race, they’re
all pretty fantastic. Verstappen is the most aggressive, which helps
him sometimes punch above his weight and sometimes needlessly get
tangled in accidents. Hamilton’s very good wheel-to-wheel but the
recent design philosophy of Mercedes has made his car trickier to
handle in traffic than the Ferrari (exemplified by the recent race in
Mexico). Alonso, I believe I’m right in saying, typically makes up
more places off the line and on lap one than anyone else. He’s very
capable wheel-to-wheel but generally hasn’t been racing against the
frontrunning drivers for the last few years.
The first race is
likely to be Australia. It’s worth noting that, historically,
McLaren has performed better there than at other circuits. One year
you may recall Button and Magnussen scored a double podium and
McLaren briefly led the Constructors’. That’s worth considering
both for early bets to hedge and when looking at the title races
after Australia.
If we have a straight
Hamilton/Vettel duel, then it’s a more straightforward matter. But
if Red Bull and/or McLaren get involved then it becomes more
difficult because, even if Ferrari and Mercedes are faster (just),
the other two teams will take points from them at certain circuits.
That sort of thing can only really be assessed when we have some
actual performance to analyse, but it should be borne in mind. It’s
better to be 1st at half the circuits and 3rd
at the others than 2nd throughout.
There’s also the
Constructors’ race to consider. In this, the team mate suddenly
becomes a valuable asset. On the face of it, Red Bull has the best
pairing. Raikkonen’s not a bad driver, but he’s not up to par
with the others. Vandoorne’s good but hard to say much beyond that.
Bottas is sometimes very good, but he’s also had some notably weak
races this year. If the Renault engine is reliable and at least close
to the others, Red Bull are likeliest to win this.
If the Renault engine
is not good enough, Mercedes will get it, I think.
Picking a driver is
trickier. Probably car characteristics and the number of certain
circuit types might be a way to go (again, though, the Red Bull and
McLaren are both likely to be weaker on high speed circuits and
better on high downforce ones).
I think France returns
next year, and Malaysia had its last race in 2017.
Generally, downforce
matters more than top speed nowadays. How things stack depend a lot
on relative performance. If Ferrari are 2nd best at every
circuit, they’ll win, provided Mercedes (probably best at faster
tracks) are on par or slower than Red Bull/McLaren at slower and
mid-speed races. But if Ferrari are 2nd at fast circuits
and then 3rd at the slow stuff, they’re nowhere.
Last but not least, we
must consider the development race. All through the year, updates are
made to the cars (NB not all are upgrades, some add no performance
and others worsen it). This is a critical part of winning in a tight
season. Mercedes are good at this. Ferrari have been strong this
year, although often in the past they’ve been a bit hit-and-miss.
Red Bull might be the best at it, but they’ve started off with such
a disadvantage in the last few years that strong development hasn’t
given them a shot. McLaren are a bit hard to assess because they’ve
been so hampered by the Honda.
The astute amongst you
will have noticed I haven’t tipped a (or more than one) title
contender. That’s because I think it’s too difficult to say at
this stage. Not only that, the odds on all but Alonso are 4 or
shorter, which is too tight anyway, and especially so given the
market won’t be resolved for a year or so.
If McLaren do make a
comeback, it’d be the biggest turn around in fortunes since the
Brawn team. Is there any chance of another team contending for the
title?
I don’t think so.
Force India do a great job with limited resources, have rock solid
reliability, two reliable and fast drivers, and fully deserve to be
head of the midfield. But, frankly, they need a cash injection.
Renault now has a very good driver lineup with Hulkenberg and Sainz,
and their performance is improving. They also have, it seems, a
better-funded set-up than Force India and may well be able to mount a
title challenge. However, I think doing so next year is just a bit
too soon for them. The performance gap is absolutely enormous between
the top three teams this year and everyone else. The only reason
McLaren might be able to bridge it is because they’ve been hampered
with terrible engines and their actual car seems to be very good
indeed.
Whilst it’s possible
next year will see a tedious return to Mercedes’ dominance, I hope
we at least get another Hamilton-Vettel duel, and there is a
realistic prospect of a much more complicated title battle, as we saw
in 2010.
Morris Dancer
One thing to add to this, is that next year the number of allowable power unit elements over the season drops from four to three. This favours reliability over performance, and only Mercedes have avoided penalties this year. The way F1 engines evolve is generally performance first and reliability second, as Renault have discovered to their cost this season.
ReplyDeleteMr. Sandpit, cheers for posting that, as I was unaware.
ReplyDelete