Early thoughts on 2018

With the 2017 season yet to finish, it might seem too early to contemplate next year. But, the markets are up, and it’s interesting, so I thought I’d have a look at how things might pan out.

The regulations stay broadly the same (next big shake up will be 2021). There doesn’t seem to be much movement at all in drivers at top teams (I believe Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren have unchanged lineups). So far, so consistent.

There is one major change, which is McLaren moving from Honda to Renault engines. As we’ve seen this year, the Renault is much closer to the Mercedes/Ferrari, although it still has a horsepower deficit. However, the McLaren has looked rather good in aerodynamic terms, and Red Bull were, at some circuits, competitive outright.

If the Renault is too unreliable or slow, then we’re likely to have another Hamilton/Vettel season in 2018. If the Renault is good enough to enable Red Bull and McLaren to compete for regular wins, then Verstappen, Ricciardo, Alonso and Vandoorne step into contention.

Well. Perhaps. In Mexico, Vandoorne was politely moved out his team mate’s way. He’s a good driver but I think McLaren will very much be backing Alonso.

What of Red Bull? Verstappen has a long term contract there, having re-signed this year, but after 2018 (I think) Ricciardo is a free agent. Rumours abound he might be off to Mercedes (Ferrari seems less likely). I don’t think Red Bull will be quite as number one driver about it as they were in the past, but it does seem probable they’ll favour Verstappen.

I’ve also read (from NigelB on PB) that Mercedes are going for a radical redesign for a high rake philosophy. If that gives them an edge, they may walk it again. But if they screw it up, they might have made the silliest design decision since McLaren decided to fundamentally change their suspension from 2012 to 2013. My guess is that Mercedes will be there, and are likely to be the team to beat, again.

As well as pace of driver and car, we must consider reliability. This year, the Mercedes has been rock solid. Ferrari has been very good indeed, with just a couple of gremlins (alas, still enough to rob us of a title fight to the end). The Renault engine has been the most problematic (excepting Honda, obviously) with 5 and 7 DNFs for Ricciardo and Verstappen respectively, out of 18 races to date. That’s a title-sinking statistic if it’s repeated next year.

For Red Bull/McLaren to have a chance, they need Renault to make a small step forward on relative pace, and a large step forward on reliability. I think that, more than speed, might prove more difficult.

Hamilton, Vettel, Verstappen and Alonso fighting for a title is a very appealing thought. Let us suppose the cars are roughly equal over the course of a season in terms of both reliability and pace. Who would win?

In qualifying, Hamilton and Vettel stand out. Alonso is not a bad qualifier but he is not Hamilton’s equal. Verstappen’s a bit trickier to assess because he’s only been in the sport during the age of engine modes giving Mercedes (and, to a lesser extent, Ferrari) an advantage. This is a weakness Renault are actively seeking to address.

In the race, they’re all pretty fantastic. Verstappen is the most aggressive, which helps him sometimes punch above his weight and sometimes needlessly get tangled in accidents. Hamilton’s very good wheel-to-wheel but the recent design philosophy of Mercedes has made his car trickier to handle in traffic than the Ferrari (exemplified by the recent race in Mexico). Alonso, I believe I’m right in saying, typically makes up more places off the line and on lap one than anyone else. He’s very capable wheel-to-wheel but generally hasn’t been racing against the frontrunning drivers for the last few years.

The first race is likely to be Australia. It’s worth noting that, historically, McLaren has performed better there than at other circuits. One year you may recall Button and Magnussen scored a double podium and McLaren briefly led the Constructors’. That’s worth considering both for early bets to hedge and when looking at the title races after Australia.

If we have a straight Hamilton/Vettel duel, then it’s a more straightforward matter. But if Red Bull and/or McLaren get involved then it becomes more difficult because, even if Ferrari and Mercedes are faster (just), the other two teams will take points from them at certain circuits. That sort of thing can only really be assessed when we have some actual performance to analyse, but it should be borne in mind. It’s better to be 1st at half the circuits and 3rd at the others than 2nd throughout.

There’s also the Constructors’ race to consider. In this, the team mate suddenly becomes a valuable asset. On the face of it, Red Bull has the best pairing. Raikkonen’s not a bad driver, but he’s not up to par with the others. Vandoorne’s good but hard to say much beyond that. Bottas is sometimes very good, but he’s also had some notably weak races this year. If the Renault engine is reliable and at least close to the others, Red Bull are likeliest to win this.

If the Renault engine is not good enough, Mercedes will get it, I think.

Picking a driver is trickier. Probably car characteristics and the number of certain circuit types might be a way to go (again, though, the Red Bull and McLaren are both likely to be weaker on high speed circuits and better on high downforce ones).

I think France returns next year, and Malaysia had its last race in 2017.

Generally, downforce matters more than top speed nowadays. How things stack depend a lot on relative performance. If Ferrari are 2nd best at every circuit, they’ll win, provided Mercedes (probably best at faster tracks) are on par or slower than Red Bull/McLaren at slower and mid-speed races. But if Ferrari are 2nd at fast circuits and then 3rd at the slow stuff, they’re nowhere.

Last but not least, we must consider the development race. All through the year, updates are made to the cars (NB not all are upgrades, some add no performance and others worsen it). This is a critical part of winning in a tight season. Mercedes are good at this. Ferrari have been strong this year, although often in the past they’ve been a bit hit-and-miss. Red Bull might be the best at it, but they’ve started off with such a disadvantage in the last few years that strong development hasn’t given them a shot. McLaren are a bit hard to assess because they’ve been so hampered by the Honda.

The astute amongst you will have noticed I haven’t tipped a (or more than one) title contender. That’s because I think it’s too difficult to say at this stage. Not only that, the odds on all but Alonso are 4 or shorter, which is too tight anyway, and especially so given the market won’t be resolved for a year or so.

If McLaren do make a comeback, it’d be the biggest turn around in fortunes since the Brawn team. Is there any chance of another team contending for the title?

I don’t think so. Force India do a great job with limited resources, have rock solid reliability, two reliable and fast drivers, and fully deserve to be head of the midfield. But, frankly, they need a cash injection. Renault now has a very good driver lineup with Hulkenberg and Sainz, and their performance is improving. They also have, it seems, a better-funded set-up than Force India and may well be able to mount a title challenge. However, I think doing so next year is just a bit too soon for them. The performance gap is absolutely enormous between the top three teams this year and everyone else. The only reason McLaren might be able to bridge it is because they’ve been hampered with terrible engines and their actual car seems to be very good indeed.

Whilst it’s possible next year will see a tedious return to Mercedes’ dominance, I hope we at least get another Hamilton-Vettel duel, and there is a realistic prospect of a much more complicated title battle, as we saw in 2010.


Morris Dancer

Comments

  1. One thing to add to this, is that next year the number of allowable power unit elements over the season drops from four to three. This favours reliability over performance, and only Mercedes have avoided penalties this year. The way F1 engines evolve is generally performance first and reliability second, as Renault have discovered to their cost this season.

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  2. Mr. Sandpit, cheers for posting that, as I was unaware.

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