Brazil: pre-race 2017
A very interesting
qualifying session. Bottas got pole, which is nice, but Raikkonen
couldn’t quite make the top 2, which was a little bit displeasing
given his odds were ridiculously long (22/1 at one point).
Congratulations to Mr.
Sandpit, who is on Bottas at 13.5 for the win (hedgeable at just over
evens right now).
In the first part of
qualifying, Hamilton made a rare mistake, the rear of his car getting
away from him and leading to him crashing out immediately. In less
surprising news, both Saubers failed to make it out, and, yet again,
Stroll also failed to progress. Gasly, who has penalties anyway, was
another who exited at this stage.
In second practice
Hartley, who has penalties as well, didn’t bother running, which is
understandable. Both Haas drivers didn’t go any further, and nor
did Vandoorne. Surprisingly, Ocon could only register the 11th
fastest time (although he’ll be promoted to 10th due to
Ricciardo’s penalty).
Tiny spots of rain came
down in Q3 but not sufficient to make any real difference. It was
very close at the sharp end between the Ferraris and Bottas. Vettel
was fastest on his first run but got pipped by the Mercedes driver by
less than half a tenth. Raikkonen was a couple of tenths off the pace
which was a little surprising.
Although Verstappen was
next up he was nearly half a second off the slower Finn, and
four-tenths faster than his team mate, who will take a 10 place
penalty and start 15th. Perez and Alonso were next, the
Spaniard two-hundredths slower than the Mexican. If the Honda engine
holds up, Alonso could be on for a good race.
Hulkenberg and Sainz
came next, the German a tenth faster than his new, rather more
competitive, team mate. I do wonder if their engines will last,
though. Finally, (again), we have Massa, whose pace was about a
second faster than his team mate.
The forecast is for it
to be dry and warm. I wonder if the heat might harm the Ferraris. We
also have a couple of drivers out of place, with Ricciardo 15th
and Hamilton 20th or starting from the pit lane. Brazil
often has carnage at the first corner, which is an interesting and
tricky turn.
Just looking at the
grid, my first thoughts on betting were:
Verstappen podium
Vettel win
Ricciardo top 6
Verstappen is 1.9 for a
podium. Not enough given the cars ahead of him and reliability
question marks over Renault (ironic, though, that he’s recently
suffered least from them).
Vettel is just 2.5 to
win. Entirely credible but the odds aren’t great.
Ricciardo is 1.4 for
the top 6. The least tempting of them all. Whilst he may well get it
he’ll have to pass Williams/Force India which may prove difficult,
he’s had bad reliability recently (one of my early tips was backing
him to DNF) and he starts 15th, which is a great place to
get caught out by someone else’s accident off the start.
Upon perusing the
markets, I found:
First lap leader,
Vettel, 5 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Group Betting, Group B
Winner, Alonso, 3.75 (Ladbrokes)
Ricciardo, not to be
classified, 5 (Ladbrokes)
Perez, top 6, 2.2
(Ladbrokes)
#Oddsonthat market on
Betfair Sportsbook
Hamilton not to get a
podium 2.4
Vettel and Verstappen
podium, Hamilton top 6, Force India double points, 5
Vettel win,
Hulkenberg/Ocon/Perez points, under 15.5 classified finishers, 15
Sainz/Hartley/Hulkenberg
to not be classified, Verstappen on the podium, 41
Ricciardo podium,
Alonso/Grosjean/Vandoorne not to be classified, 101
Lots there to
contemplate, although no single bet leaps out and demands to be
backed.
Raikkonen has tended to
go backwards rather than forwards off the line, and Vettel had a very
good start in Mexico. I think it’ll be him or Bottas, but obviously
that sort of bet is a bit luck of the draw. The odds are reasonably
good.
Alonso’s group
includes Perez, Hulkenberg and Sainz. The Renaults have had worse
reliability in recent races, and Alonso typically makes up ground off
the start. My concern, as well as his possibly weak reliability, is
that he’ll be murdered on the straight by Perez, and the Force
India’s only real weakness is the other Force India colliding with
it. Tempting but can’t back it.
Ricciardo has failed to
be classified in the last few races. He’s also in a nice place to
be crashed into going into the challenging first corner. For that
matter, Sainz and Hulkenberg at 3.5 each are also a bit tempting.
Perez starts 5th,
has a car that’s very reliable and is very good at keeping tyres
going. That matters here because it’s a toss up between a one and
two stop race. Ricciardo and Hamilton will be in significantly faster
cars but start further back. There’s also something of a
reliability question mark over the Red Bulls/Renault engines as well
as the three cars immediately behind him on the grid. All that said,
2.2 aren’t huge odds. But they may be good odds.
Usually, due to timing,
I miss the #Oddsonthat markets so it was a nice surprise to see them
up.
After checking, it
turned out Hamilton was 2.4 not to get a podium, but, on the
exchange, 3.3 to get one. So I backed both, of course. Unfortunately,
the #Oddsonthat market instantly vanished, so this can’t count as a
tip (shame as it’s a guaranteed winner).
Vettel and Verstappen
both getting on the podium is credible, as is Hamilton finishing top
6 and both Force Indias scoring. However, that’s quite a few
contingencies for 5, and there is a question mark over both
Verstappen’s reliability and the Red Bull’s pace. It’s probable
but not certain Hamilton will be top 6. Too many things to tempt at
those odds.
Vettel win,
Hulkenberg/Ocon/Perez points, under 15.5 classified finishers, 15.
This is more tempting. On pace, there’s every chance Vettel can
beat Bottas, and the three chaps in question could score, although
Hulkenberg’s had shaky reliability recently. At least five
retirements are required, but with engine dodginess from Honda and
Renault, that’s at least plausible, if not probable. The main
potential pitfall seems to be Hulkenberg. Worth considering.
Sainz/Hartley/Hulkenberg
to not be classified, Verstappen on the podium, 41. Given the
dubiousness of Renault engines recently, this is also quite
intriguing. Verstappen getting on the podium is probably the least
likely contingency. As well as reliability (and he has essentially
the same engine as the chaps who need to DNF) there’s a pace
question mark. On the other hand, he tends to go forward rather than
backwards off the line, unlike Raikkonen, who starts 3rd
and immediately ahead of him. Hmm.
Last and longest, we
have Ricciardo podium, Alonso/Grosjean/Vandoorne not to be
classified, 101. Tasty idea but Ricciardo’s unlikely to get on the
podium, and I’d be slightly surprised if all three of those drivers
failed to finish. Mind you, that’s why the odds are long. But I’m
not especially tempted.
Of all the above, the
most interesting are:
Vettel, lap 1 leader, 5
Ricciardo, not to be
classified, 5
Perez, top 6, 2.2
Sainz/Hartley/Hulkenberg
to not be classified, Verstappen on the podium, 41
Quite tricky to decide
between them. I think Ricciardo not to be classified at 5 offers the
best value. Those odds are available both on Ladbrokes and Betfair
Sportsbook. [NB this is almost identical to the 5.25 early tip on
Ricciardo not to be classified, not quite sure how I’ll resolve
that in the records as yet].
The grid’s poised
intriguingly and Interlagos is perhaps the best circuit on the
calendar, so we should be in for a cracking race. The start is at 4pm
UK time.
Morris Dancer
Good afternoon Mr Dancer,
ReplyDeleteIt has been an incredibly demanding week in the World of Geoff and to be honest I haven't had a chance to think about this at all. However I always prefer to watch a race with something to hope for. So I've just opted for beer money on all of your "most interesting" ideas.
Good luck to both of us.
Hey, Mr. M.
ReplyDeleteHope next week is a bit more relaxing. Anyway, that proved a wiser strategy than the one I adopted, so congrats on the winnings.