Brazil: pre-qualifying 2017
Some Mercedes team
members (and maybe FIA officials too, not sure) were robbed at
gunpoint after leaving the circuit yesterday. There has always been
some danger at Interlagos, but this is a rather troubling reminder.
Nobody was hurt, though valuables were taken.
As an aside, all of
Verstappen’s three wins to date have come the race after Kvyat got
dropped. Odd coincidence.
Massa announced last
Saturday that he was retiring, due in part to the uncertainty over
his position at Williams. I like Massa a lot, he seems like a
genuinely nice guy with little ego, and he came incredibly close to
the 2008 title only to have it wrenched away by Hamilton’s last
gasp pass on Glock. But, the sport does need new blood and Massa’s
been around for quite a while. That does make it ironic that the men
seemingly next in line are former drivers Kvyat, Kubica and Di Resta.
Speaking of fresh
blood, Lando Norris has been named McLaren’s reserve driver for
next year, replacing Jenson Button.
Two drivers who have
performed extremely well in the wet (former in the very wet, latter
in wet-dry conditions) are Verstappen and Hulkenberg. If the weather
looks soggy, keep those two in mind.
Post from PB:
F1: for what it's
worth, I've made some early bets [on the 2018 title] with small stakes.
My view is that the
Renault engine is critical. If it's on song next year then Alonso at
12 each way (Ladbrokes, odds boosted [weirdly, this is also working
for each way bets]) is the best value by a mile. Also backed
Vandoorne at 81 each way on the basis that Australia tends to be good
for McLaren and whilst he's unlikely to be on terms with Alonso, that
equates to 17 to be top 3, which is possible.
I've also backed Bottas
at 16 each way. If it's Mercedes versus Ferrari, or if reliability of
the Renault is as poor as this year, he's almost nailed on to be top
3 at 4 (as with Vandoorne, that's fifth the odds for top 3).
The short odds on
Hamilton, Vettel, Verstappen and Ricciardo do not appeal. If Hamilton
wins, the Bottas bet is likely to come off at better odds. If Renault
step up their game, McLaren are far better value than Red Bull.
If/when the
Constructors' comes up I'll look at Red Bull, as their driver pairing
is the most balanced. It'll be them or Mercedes, in my view.
In first practice
Hamilton was a tenth ahead of Bottas, with the Silver Arrows almost
half a second ahead of Raikkonen. Verstappen, Ricciardo and Vettel
followed close behind, with Massa, Vandoorne, Ocon and Alonso
rounding out the top 10.
Second practice had the
same top two, but the margin was half a tenth, and from Bottas to
Ricciardo was a tenth and a half. Vettel and Verstappen were not far
down the road, although Raikkonen was a couple of tenths off the
Dutchman. Ocon, Massa and Hulkenberg were all covered by a tenth,
followed by Alonso.
At this stage, rain is
forecast for qualifying but the race is expected to be dry. That
could help out Red Bull, McLaren and Renault, at the expense of
Williams (downforce, of course, being your friend in the wet, and
power mattering less).
It’s worth noting
that Ricciardo has usually been outperformed by a variety of team
mates here, (second in qualifying to Vettel, Kvyat and Verstappen in
the last three years). Also, Hulkenberg and Verstappen have performed
astonishingly quickly in certain wet conditions.
Not clear as yet
whether the race will be one or two stops. Ricciardo does have a
penalty of at least 10 places for changing engine parts, yet again.
As well as the
Ricciardo penalty, both Toro Rossos have similar ones. In fact,
there’s a chance of the F1 equivalent of nuclear war breaking out,
with Renault potentially exploring the possibility of refusing to
supply engine parts to the team after Franz Tost, boss of Toro Rosso,
reportedly hinted that the team was being given weaker parts to
benefit the Renault F1 team. We’ll have to wait and see how that
plays out.
Bottas, Hamilton,
Raikkonen and Vettel were fastest in third practice, all covered by
half a tenth. Looks rather good. However, Red Bull does not.
Ricciardo was next up, nine-tenths off Vettel. Alonso has looked
strong all weekend and was within half a tenth of the Aussie,
followed by Perez, Ocon, Verstappen (who didn’t get a clean lap in
but looked roughly on pace with Ricciardo) and Sainz.
Right now, Bottas and
Raikkonen probably represent the best value for pole. The weather
forecast has improved from rain to overcast.
I was astonished to
check and find Raikkonen was 17 for pole on Betfair Sportsbook. I
backed this each way (third the odds for top 2) and likewise Bottas
at 4.5. Bottas was fastest in final practice and Raikkonen, though
third, was just 0.04s off the pace.
Raikkonen’s also 23
(21 plus boost) for pole on Ladbrokes, but there’s no each way
option. However, he is, at the time of writing, layable at 19 on
Ladbrokes Exchange, so I took advantage of that to gain a little more
if he wins and lose nothing if he does not. [NB this changed immediately after I wrote this, with Raikkonen falling to the still too long 13].
I really had intended
to sit out qualifying but with things so close, Bottas at 4.5 and
Raikkonen at 17, both each way, were too long to miss.
Qualifying starts at
4pm UK time. The pre-race article will likely be up tomorrow.
Morris Dancer
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