Brazil: pre-qualifying 2017

Some Mercedes team members (and maybe FIA officials too, not sure) were robbed at gunpoint after leaving the circuit yesterday. There has always been some danger at Interlagos, but this is a rather troubling reminder. Nobody was hurt, though valuables were taken.

As an aside, all of Verstappen’s three wins to date have come the race after Kvyat got dropped. Odd coincidence.

Massa announced last Saturday that he was retiring, due in part to the uncertainty over his position at Williams. I like Massa a lot, he seems like a genuinely nice guy with little ego, and he came incredibly close to the 2008 title only to have it wrenched away by Hamilton’s last gasp pass on Glock. But, the sport does need new blood and Massa’s been around for quite a while. That does make it ironic that the men seemingly next in line are former drivers Kvyat, Kubica and Di Resta.

Speaking of fresh blood, Lando Norris has been named McLaren’s reserve driver for next year, replacing Jenson Button.

Two drivers who have performed extremely well in the wet (former in the very wet, latter in wet-dry conditions) are Verstappen and Hulkenberg. If the weather looks soggy, keep those two in mind.

Post from PB:
F1: for what it's worth, I've made some early bets [on the 2018 title] with small stakes.

My view is that the Renault engine is critical. If it's on song next year then Alonso at 12 each way (Ladbrokes, odds boosted [weirdly, this is also working for each way bets]) is the best value by a mile. Also backed Vandoorne at 81 each way on the basis that Australia tends to be good for McLaren and whilst he's unlikely to be on terms with Alonso, that equates to 17 to be top 3, which is possible.

I've also backed Bottas at 16 each way. If it's Mercedes versus Ferrari, or if reliability of the Renault is as poor as this year, he's almost nailed on to be top 3 at 4 (as with Vandoorne, that's fifth the odds for top 3).

The short odds on Hamilton, Vettel, Verstappen and Ricciardo do not appeal. If Hamilton wins, the Bottas bet is likely to come off at better odds. If Renault step up their game, McLaren are far better value than Red Bull.

If/when the Constructors' comes up I'll look at Red Bull, as their driver pairing is the most balanced. It'll be them or Mercedes, in my view.

In first practice Hamilton was a tenth ahead of Bottas, with the Silver Arrows almost half a second ahead of Raikkonen. Verstappen, Ricciardo and Vettel followed close behind, with Massa, Vandoorne, Ocon and Alonso rounding out the top 10.

Second practice had the same top two, but the margin was half a tenth, and from Bottas to Ricciardo was a tenth and a half. Vettel and Verstappen were not far down the road, although Raikkonen was a couple of tenths off the Dutchman. Ocon, Massa and Hulkenberg were all covered by a tenth, followed by Alonso.

At this stage, rain is forecast for qualifying but the race is expected to be dry. That could help out Red Bull, McLaren and Renault, at the expense of Williams (downforce, of course, being your friend in the wet, and power mattering less).

It’s worth noting that Ricciardo has usually been outperformed by a variety of team mates here, (second in qualifying to Vettel, Kvyat and Verstappen in the last three years). Also, Hulkenberg and Verstappen have performed astonishingly quickly in certain wet conditions.

Not clear as yet whether the race will be one or two stops. Ricciardo does have a penalty of at least 10 places for changing engine parts, yet again.

As well as the Ricciardo penalty, both Toro Rossos have similar ones. In fact, there’s a chance of the F1 equivalent of nuclear war breaking out, with Renault potentially exploring the possibility of refusing to supply engine parts to the team after Franz Tost, boss of Toro Rosso, reportedly hinted that the team was being given weaker parts to benefit the Renault F1 team. We’ll have to wait and see how that plays out.

Bottas, Hamilton, Raikkonen and Vettel were fastest in third practice, all covered by half a tenth. Looks rather good. However, Red Bull does not. Ricciardo was next up, nine-tenths off Vettel. Alonso has looked strong all weekend and was within half a tenth of the Aussie, followed by Perez, Ocon, Verstappen (who didn’t get a clean lap in but looked roughly on pace with Ricciardo) and Sainz.

Right now, Bottas and Raikkonen probably represent the best value for pole. The weather forecast has improved from rain to overcast.

I was astonished to check and find Raikkonen was 17 for pole on Betfair Sportsbook. I backed this each way (third the odds for top 2) and likewise Bottas at 4.5. Bottas was fastest in final practice and Raikkonen, though third, was just 0.04s off the pace.

Raikkonen’s also 23 (21 plus boost) for pole on Ladbrokes, but there’s no each way option. However, he is, at the time of writing, layable at 19 on Ladbrokes Exchange, so I took advantage of that to gain a little more if he wins and lose nothing if he does not. [NB this changed immediately after I wrote this, with Raikkonen falling to the still too long 13].

I really had intended to sit out qualifying but with things so close, Bottas at 4.5 and Raikkonen at 17, both each way, were too long to miss.

Qualifying starts at 4pm UK time. The pre-race article will likely be up tomorrow.


Morris Dancer

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Monaco: pre-race 2023

F1 2014 - Second and Third Tests

Japan: early discussion