Abu Dhabi: pre-race 2017

Ha. Well, it’s been that sort of year. I decide against backing Bottas and, contrary to all indications, he manages to win pole. Good for him, galling for me.

In Q1 the Toro Rossos were absolutely dreadful, with Hartley dead last and Gasly ahead only of his team mate and the Saubers (who at least have the excuse of using a year old Ferrari engine). Grosjean ended up being the fastest chap to be eliminated at this stage, which is unsurprising as the Haas has looked a bit ropey all weekend.

In the second session it was unsurprising Stroll, who had struggled in Q1, and Magnussen were eliminated, but slightly more surprising both McLarens were. Alonso was edged out by Massa, who, despite retiring, remains significantly faster than Stroll. Sainz was another slight surprise, qualifying in 12th and reporting a problem with power right at the end of the lap.

Then we had the final session. Contrary to all expectations, Bottas pulled out the fastest lap on his initial run and Hamilton was unable to match it, with the Mercedes seizing the front row. Vettel starts 3rd but was a few tenths off the pace, and has Ricciardo for company alongside him. Raikkonen and Verstappen had the third row, with Hulkenberg ahead of Perez on the fourth (if it starts like that. Perez may get a penalty for impeding Hulkenberg during qualifying). Ocon and Massa are provisionally on row five, pending the potential Perez penalty.

So, more jumbled up than I expected, and less competitive for pole too (I know Bottas surprised me and got it, but Mercedes were dominant). Glancing at the grid, the bets that spring to mind are:
Ricciardo podium
Alonso points
Perhaps safety car (lots of spins and so on so far)

Ricciardo is 2.5 for a podium. Based on the Red Bull being better in race trim than in qualifying, this could well be value.

Alonso is 1.53 for points. This doesn’t tempt. He’s probably good enough on pace but there’s also a reliability question mark.

A safety car is 1.95. That seems quite interesting.

A perusal of the markets revealed:
Ricciardo to win without Mercedes, 4.33

I like the Ricciardo to win without Mercedes market at 4.33, each way (third the odds for top 2). He’s driven well all weekend, seems more comfortable than his team mate, is perhaps faster than Vettel in race.

So, the final tip of the year, with Ladbrokes:
Ricciardo to win without Mercedes, each way, 4.33 [4.5 with boost, not a huge difference but longer’s always better].


Morris Dancer

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

F1 2014 - Second and Third Tests

Image
Bit of a whopper of an article, but it didn’t make sense to write two for the Bahrain tests, as they were so close together. Many of the rule changes are helpfully outlined here: http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/22058/9077826/gearing-up-for-2014-the-rule-changes-uncovered-and-explained-part-one This is one more reason why reliability is to critical. Losing a whole power unit (exceeding the 5 per season limit) means starting the next race from the pit lane. Losing a component, such as the turbo, means a 10 place grid penalty. On day one of the first test in Bahrain it appeared the Renault/Red Bull woe might continue. However, both Red Bull and Toro Rosso got in good running on the second day. Any remaining issues seem more to do with the car rather than the power unit. It’s been suggested the Renault requires significantly more cooling than rival engines, but apparently there are upsides. If the horsepower rumours were true (Mercedes being mighty and Ferrari better
Read more

Japan: early discussion

Image
As we enter the latter stages of the season we have multiple pairs of back-to-back races, hence this discussion starting a day after the Korean Grand Prix (which may be the last, incidentally. The circuit’s too isolated, surrounding developments haven’t been built and the organisers are annoyed by the high cost of staging the race which is the only use of the circuit all year). The Suzuka circuit is a proper one, with lots of elevation changes, a very fast flowing section (similar to Silverstone) and some very high speed corners. Sadly, I expect this will mean it’ll suit Red Bull. However, given their resurgence, it’s worth mentioning that last year Sauber had a strong result at Suzuka, when Kobayashi got third. Perhaps Hulkenberg will be able to get good points again (thanks to him Sauber are now tied on points but ahead of Toro Rosso in the Constructors’) and Gutierrez could nab his first point or two. Lotus benefited from some fortune with the safety car timing in Kore
Read more

America: pre-race

Image
Q1 saw the pointless teams ditched as usual, but there was a stark divergence between the Williams’ drivers. Bottas was 1st (in Q1 only), and Maldonado 18th. Turns out money can only buy seats, not speed. Surprising to see such a difference between the two drivers, though. Sutil went out in 17th, and may have suffered some sort of technical problem as he peeled off after his final lap. During Q2 it was confirmed Sutil had a problem, namely a slow puncture. Q2 saw the surprise departure of Rosberg. The Mercedes seemed to be the best of the rest, so that’s quite a shock. Not only that, he’s 14th, behind Ricciardo, Di Resta and Button (although Button suffers a 3 place grid penalty for ignoring red flags during practice). Massa is behind Rosberg, followed by Vergne. Impressively, Sauber got both of their cars into the top 10. Q3 was surprisingly close, but Vettel narrowly got pole ahead of Webber. Grosjean continues his strong form with 3rd, followed by Hulkenberg, who is
Read more