Belgium: pre-race 2017
I’m beginning to get
quite aggravated. Last race a rare safety car (first on a first lap
in Hungary in over three decades) and an inexplicably lenient call on
Sainz meant some tips didn’t come off, here Raikkonen was plagued
by a serious vibration throughout qualifying and made a mistake on
his final lap (the other three drivers all improved markedly on their
last lap).
He’d been faster than
Vettel all weekend and, if not better than Hamilton (the final
distance between Hamilton and Vettel was not insurmountable)
certainly in with a good chance of being best of the rest. Good and
bad luck interferes a lot with F1, and whilst I had some good a few
races ago, the last two or three have been plagued with misfortune.
Raikkonen really
should’ve been 2nd, with an outside shot of pole.
Rant over, qualifying
threw up some surprises.
Williams were dire.
Whilst most expected Sauber to be slowest (and they were), both
Williams left in Q1 (Stroll was unable to do a second run due to a
problem with his car). That’s pretty poor. Kvyat also failed to
reach Q2.
In the second session
it was tight between those who were booted out and those who sneaked
through. Ultimately, both Renaults (Palmer driving very well) and
both Force Indias got through, with Alonso (angrily lamenting loss of
power), Grosjean, Magnussen, Sainz and 65 grid penalty-laden
Vandoorne progressing no further.
On the initial run in
Q3, Hamilton was ahead of Raikkonen by over three-tenths, with
Raikkonen ahead slightly of Bottas, and Vettel close behind. Palmer,
having driven very well, unfortunately suffered a car failure that
meant he didn’t post a time. On the final runs, everyone improved
dramatically except Raikkonen (damn it), who screwed up and ended up
4th, when he really should’ve been 2nd.
Vettel, however, set up a very tasty front row, just behind Hamilton,
and Bottas is 3rd.
For the record,
Hamilton has equalled Schumacher’s 68 pole positions.
Behind the quartet at
the front Red Bull are again on the third row, Verstappen fastest,
Hulkenberg starts off 7th, Perez and Ocon are next, and
Palmer should be 10th (unsure if he’ll have any
penalties, though).
As an aside, an early
bet I considered but didn’t back was Hulkenberg top 6 at 3.5, so
it’ll be interesting to see how much those odds have changed. Also
worth noting that the Ferrari, in practice, appeared faster on the
long runs.
My first thoughts on
potential bets were:
Ferrari top score
Ferrari double podium
Raikkonen fastest lap
Hulkenberg top 6 [maybe
match with LadEx all top six drivers to score points]
Force India double
score
Ferrari are just 2.5
for a double podium. Too tight for me.
Raikkonen is 6 for
fastest lap. That’s somewhat interesting. The Ferrari looked good
on long runs and he has a great record at Spa.
Force India are 1.53
for a double points finish. Very likely, but the odds aren’t great.
Hulkenberg is 3.75 to
be top 6 (up from 3.5 pre-weekend). I don’t get that. He’s
qualified as high as he could expect to (7th), and his
odds are longer than both Force Indias. Whilst true the Renault has
worse reliability, he’s a good driver, has a good record at the
circuit and is first in line if anyone ahead of him breaks down or
crashes.
Annoyingly, there
doesn’t appear to be a top score market (or they’re taking a
while to make it up).
Of these, Hulkenberg
looks somewhat tempting, likewise Raikkonen, but neither are clear
shots.
After perusing the
markets to see if anything leapt out like an outraged baboon, I
found:
Vettel, win, 5.2
(Betfair)
The Ferrari looked
tasty on long runs and the team will obviously favour Vettel if it
comes down to that. Against this is the generally poor starts the
Ferraris have had relative to the Mercedes and a short run to the
first corner (that mitigates the risk to Vettel but also reduces his
opportunity).
In short, there is
nothing that particularly appeals.
That said, the Vettel
bet coupled with (Ladbrokes) Hamilton to beat Vettel at 1.57 looks
like an interesting possibility. All else being equal one of those two
should win.
Note: Ladbrokes has
reverted to ‘classified’ rather than ‘finish’.
The odds slipped a bit
but I backed Vettel at 4.9 (Betfair) for the win, hedged at evens. To
be honest, it’s one of those races I’d probably sit out if I
didn’t tip every race.
Morris Dancer
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