Belgium: pre-qualifying 2017
A minor piece of
housekeeping, but with offering more tips ahead of race weekends I’m
going to start recording them. My focus will still be on the weekend
tips, but given the last two race weekends have seen very green early
bets but very red weekend bets, it’s producing a rather misleading
picture and I want to correct that. I’ll continue to always offer
at least one race bet per weekend in a pre-race article, and early
bets will continue to be subject to value (I won’t always offer
them).
During the break it was
announced that Perez will continue driving for Force India in 2018
and Raikkonen likewise for Ferrari. Not hugely surprised and expect
Bottas to get a multi-year deal at Mercedes. The most interesting
question right now is whether or not Kubica will come back. My own
guess is he’ll replace Palmer (and that Leclerc will join Sauber).
More interesting is whether Alonso will leave the sport (I’d guess
that he will if McLaren stick with Honda).
Vandoorne has also been
confirmed to be staying at McLaren. In less welcome news, the Honda
upgrade this weekend means he gets a grid penalty too. At the current
time of writing he’s got a 40 place grid penalty. On a 20 car grid.
I like F1 but certain aspects are rather silly. [Edited extra bit:
this then rose to 65].
Just before qualifying
it emerged Vettel has signed a new three year deal at Ferrari. Not
too surprising, but significant nevertheless.
My only early tip (I
may start writing concise early articles here) was for Raikkonen each
way at 17 to ‘win’ qualifying. Some good news also emerged with
the minor but helpful change to Ladbrokes’ markets, whereby
‘classified’ (or not) has been replaced by ‘finish’. This is
useful as it’s possible for a driver to be classified even if they
don’t finish the race, so it adds clarity.
First corner can create
some carnage, but that also means opportunity for those who avoid it.
In first practice the
headline times are a shade misleading because the Mercedes were on
the soft (other tyres being supersoft and ultrasoft). Raikkonen was
fastest, a tiny margin ahead of Hamilton, who was a tenth up on
Vettel. Verstappen, Ricciardo and Bottas followed, with Sainz, Ocon,
Kvyat and Vandoorne rounding out the top 10.
Second practice was
curtailed by rain, and Massa was unable to run following a chassis
change from an early crash in first practice. However, everyone had
time for qualifying simulation and between half and one dozen
ultrasoft/high fuel early race simulation laps.
Hamilton topped the
time sheets, a quarter of a second ahead of Raikkonen, who was almost
two-tenths up on Bottas. Verstappen and Vettel followed close behind,
then came Ricciardo, Hulkenberg, Ocon, Sainz and Palmer.
My own feeling right
now, assuming it’s dry for qualifying (I’ll check nearer the
time) is that Hamilton is very likely to get pole but behind him
it’ll be close and any of the other three could line up alongside
him. Obviously if it’s wet that helps Red Bull, and if it’s very
wet or changeable the ultimate grid could be a lottery.
In third practice,
Raikkonen was fastest, just shy of two-tenths up on his team mate.
Vettel was 0.001s ahead of Hamilton. However, there was nearly a
second between the Briton and Verstappen, with Bottas, Ricciardo,
Palmer, Perez, Sainz and Alonso rounding out the top 10.
Tricky to decide
whether laying Hamilton at about 1.5 (looks like a three horse race
and he’s only one of them) or backing Vettel and Raikkonen at
around 6-7 makes more sense. Also got to consider how to marry a tip
here with the early Raikkonen tip (not a dead cert but content with
third practice).
Also worth noting
Bottas was miles off the pace in third practice. Unsure if that was
due to a mistake, so it’s possible he might yet be in the mix
(though I suspect not).
In the end, I laid
Hamilton at 1.54. He’s certainly a credible pole contender but
things were very tight amongst three drivers in third practice.
If you did back the
early Raikkonen bet, you may want to set up a hedge. I went for a
small one at 1.4 (on the short side, but there we are). Let’s hope
the Iceman can stay cool in qualifying.
Morris Dancer
Comments
Post a Comment