United Kingdom: pre-qualifying 2017

I offered a couple of early tips on Tuesday (Ricciardo for a podium 3.5, Raikkonen each way for pole at 26) on politicalbetting.com, and we’ll see how that pays off. In the future it’s possible I’ll expand my F1 ramblings beyond the usual format, but that’s for another day.

Some Sauber news emerged between the Austrian and British races. Monisha Kaltenborn, the first female team principal in F1 (though Claire Williams is the day-to-day de facto boss at the Williams team), left suddenly and unexpectedly a few weeks ago. She has now been replaced by Frederic Vasseur, former team principal at Renault.

This year, Sauber are using year-old Ferrari engines. It had been announced they’d switch to Honda (probably more for finance than performance) next year but that deal may have fallen through. If so, and McLaren return to Mercedes, that could be curtains for the Japanese engine manufacturer. Their return to F1 has not been an episode of undiluted glory.

An interesting addition to the above scenario was observed by Benson, the BBC reporter. He suggested Vasseur, being close to Wolff, might move Sauber’s engines from Ferrari to Mercedes. However, Mercedes can only supply one more team. If they supply Sauber, they cannot supply McLaren.

Speaking of McLaren woe, Alonso, shockingly, is going to have at least a five place grid penalty for gizmo replacement. My gast was not flabbered by this revelation.

As ever, the weather forecast is quite important. The weekend is currently expected to be light rain for qualifying and dry but overcast for the race. I’m going to check that nearer the time, though.

In first practice Bottas topped the timesheet, less than a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Verstappen and Ricciardo were next, then Raikkonen and Vettel. Best of the rest were Kvyat, Alonso, Massa and Vandoorne.

Second practice was practically identical at the top, Bottas again leading his team mate by a tiny margin. Raikkonen was next, then Vettel, with Verstappen and Ricciardo following. Hulkenberg, Massa, Alonso and Ocon round out the top 10.

At this stage Massa’s looking tasty and McLaren also.

It was also announced that Bottas has a five place grid penalty for a gearbox change. On Saturday, the forecast changed to dry qualifying and light rain immediately after the race. I may delay the pre-race article to get a firmer view of the weather, depending how it goes, but try and keep in mind how bets will play out in the wet or the dry.

Alonso’s grid penalty has been increased to 30 places. Given there’s 20 cars on the grid, this is yet another numerically intriguing aspect of the rules. And Ricciardo has a five place grid penalty. Given that, I put a little (pre-third practice, so can’t count as a tip for the records, though I did mention it on PB) on Raikkonen at 3.3 or so for a podium (3.25 Ladbrokes, 3.35 Betfair).

The latter part of third practice was wet, so late qualifying simulations didn’t happen. If it’s wet in qualifying that will relatively benefit Red Bull and Alonso, and harm the likes of Williams. Vandoorne headed out on intermediates, briefly, as did others for the last few minutes. That said, the third practice result was:
Hamilton fastest, less than half a tenth ahead of Vettel, Bottas a similar minuscule margin behind and Raikkonen a slightly odd six-tenths back (probably due to rain). Hulkenberg and Ricciardo were next up, with Grosjean, Verstappen, Massa and Vandoorne rounding out the top 10.

I think Hamilton looks nailed on for best pace, but the potential for rain (it’s supposed to clear for qualifying, but then, there wasn’t meant to be any in practice) could make it a lottery. He’s only 1.6 which is too short.

No tip on qualifying, although it could be rather entertaning.

Of course, if you want a risk free way to enjoy hours of entertainment then what could be better than buying my new and deliciously epic fantasy novel Traitor’s Prize?

It’s possible I’ll delay the pre-race article to get a better idea of the weather. Not sure yet.


Morris Dancer

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