United Kingdom: pre-qualifying 2017
I offered a couple of
early tips on Tuesday (Ricciardo for a podium 3.5, Raikkonen each way
for pole at 26) on politicalbetting.com, and we’ll see how that
pays off. In the future it’s possible I’ll expand my F1 ramblings
beyond the usual format, but that’s for another day.
Some Sauber news
emerged between the Austrian and British races. Monisha Kaltenborn,
the first female team principal in F1 (though Claire Williams is the
day-to-day de facto boss at the Williams team), left suddenly and
unexpectedly a few weeks ago. She has now been replaced by Frederic
Vasseur, former team principal at Renault.
This year, Sauber are
using year-old Ferrari engines. It had been announced they’d switch
to Honda (probably more for finance than performance) next year but
that deal may have fallen through. If so, and McLaren return to
Mercedes, that could be curtains for the Japanese engine
manufacturer. Their return to F1 has not been an episode of undiluted
glory.
An interesting addition
to the above scenario was observed by Benson, the BBC reporter. He
suggested Vasseur, being close to Wolff, might move Sauber’s
engines from Ferrari to Mercedes. However, Mercedes can only supply
one more team. If they supply Sauber, they cannot supply McLaren.
Speaking of McLaren
woe, Alonso, shockingly, is going to have at least a five place grid
penalty for gizmo replacement. My gast was not flabbered by this
revelation.
As ever,
the weather forecast is quite important. The weekend is currently
expected to be light rain for qualifying and dry but overcast for the
race. I’m going to check that nearer the time, though.
In first practice
Bottas topped the timesheet, less than a tenth ahead of Hamilton.
Verstappen and Ricciardo were next, then Raikkonen and Vettel. Best
of the rest were Kvyat, Alonso, Massa and Vandoorne.
Second practice was
practically identical at the top, Bottas again leading his team mate
by a tiny margin. Raikkonen was next, then Vettel, with Verstappen
and Ricciardo following. Hulkenberg, Massa, Alonso and Ocon round out
the top 10.
At this stage Massa’s
looking tasty and McLaren also.
It was also announced
that Bottas has a five place grid penalty for a gearbox change. On
Saturday, the forecast changed to dry qualifying and light rain
immediately after the race. I may delay the pre-race article to get a
firmer view of the weather, depending how it goes, but try and keep
in mind how bets will play out in the wet or the dry.
Alonso’s grid penalty
has been increased to 30 places. Given there’s 20 cars on the grid,
this is yet another numerically intriguing aspect of the rules. And
Ricciardo has a five place grid penalty. Given that, I put a little
(pre-third practice, so can’t count as a tip for the records,
though I did mention it on PB) on Raikkonen at 3.3 or so for a podium
(3.25 Ladbrokes, 3.35 Betfair).
The latter part of
third practice was wet, so late qualifying simulations didn’t
happen. If it’s wet in qualifying that will relatively benefit Red
Bull and Alonso, and harm the likes of Williams. Vandoorne headed out
on intermediates, briefly, as did others for the last few minutes.
That said, the third practice result was:
Hamilton fastest, less
than half a tenth ahead of Vettel, Bottas a similar minuscule margin
behind and Raikkonen a slightly odd six-tenths back (probably due to
rain). Hulkenberg and Ricciardo were next up, with Grosjean,
Verstappen, Massa and Vandoorne rounding out the top 10.
I think Hamilton looks
nailed on for best pace, but the potential for rain (it’s supposed
to clear for qualifying, but then, there wasn’t meant to be any in
practice) could make it a lottery. He’s only 1.6 which is too
short.
No tip on qualifying,
although it could be rather entertaning.
Of course, if you want
a risk free way to enjoy hours of entertainment then what could be
better than buying my new and deliciously epic fantasy novel
Traitor’s Prize?
It’s
possible I’ll delay the pre-race article to get a better idea of
the weather. Not sure yet.
Morris Dancer
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